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Brian Hart

@BrianTHart

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贺博然 | Deputy Director & Fellow @CSIS @ChinaPowerCSIS | @HiddenReachCSIS | China, security, foreign policy, tech. 🇺🇸🏳️‍🌈

Washington, DC
Joined January 2011
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
4 months
According to our analysis, a single Chinese state-owned shipbuilder produced more commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than the entire U.S. industry has since World War II. Read our full @CSIS report:
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
6 days
RT @CSISKoreaChair: Missed this week's @CSISGeopolitics discussion on the Axis of Upheaval after the Israel-Iran conflict? 🎥. Catch the rec….
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
7 days
RT @CSIS: A new series from @ChinaPowerCSIS leverages data to analyze China’s economic security vulnerabilities and strengths within three….
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
8 days
Joint Statement from the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Washington - United States Department of State
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
10 days
Really enjoyed this conversation with my @CSISGeopolitics colleagues on what the Iran conflict tells us (so far) about cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Watch the recording:
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
10 days
RT @CSISKoreaChair: . @brianthart: One of Iran’s key limitations is economic: trade with China pales compared to China’s trade with Gulf st….
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
10 days
RT @ChinaPowerCSIS: TODAY @ 3 PM ET | What do strikes on Iran mean for China, Russia, and N. Korea?.Join @CSISGeopolitics today for a timel….
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
14 days
Looking forward to joining my @CSISGeopolitics colleagues on Monday to discuss what the Iran conflict reveals about the level of cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and explore the implications of the conflict for China.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
14 days
RT @CSISKoreaChair: June 30 3 PM ET | What do strikes on Iran mean for China, Russia, and N. Korea? . Join @CSISGeopolitics for a timely pa….
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
RT @HenryZiemer: Excited to share this report and database on Chinese port projects in LAC! In addition to being the most comprehensive sur….
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
RT @HiddenReachCSIS: NEW: Chinese companies have invested in dozens of ports across Latin America and the Caribbean. But how much influence….
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
President Trump’s decision to intervene so significantly against Iran is likely making many in Beijing rethink their assumptions (at least to some degree) about the Trump administration’s willingness to intervene in a Taiwan scenario.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
As I’ve recently argued with my colleagues, U.S. actions on other major conflicts (eg Ukraine and the Middle East) significantly inform Beijing’s thinking on the risks of attacking Taiwan.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
BUT what *does* likely affect Beijing’s thinking here is that President Trump intervened so significantly and took substantial risks in doing so.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
So the tactics and American military power on display here were impressive. But I don’t think they deter Beijing, and I don’t think the MOPs undermine their confidence in their new military compound.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
Plus, initial U.S. intel assessments seem to cast doubt on just how successful U.S. strikes were at destroying/degrading Iran’s nuclear program. You could argue the limits of the damage might actually decrease the deterrent effect vis a vis China.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
Iran’s military capabilities are not comparable to those of China’s, especially given how degraded Iran’s forces have become. Most importantly, unlike Iran, China *is* a nuclear power. Attacks on central military leadership could provoke a nuclear response by China.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
The military complex under construction near Beijing is massive. MOPs are useful for destroying discrete UG targets — not an entire military compound much larger than the Pentagon.
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
I very highly doubt this. A 🧵 with a few thoughts. Chinese military planners already knew well the capabilities of the B-2 and had no reason to doubt the GBU-57 MOP. So the tactical success of this mission — while impressive — won’t really change their thinking.
@BillGertz
Bill Gertz
15 days
The B-2 strike on Iran was also a strategic message to the Chinese Communist Party: Your Central Military Commission command center in the Western Hills of Beijing is vulnerable to the new GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator bomb dropped by B-2s
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
15 days
According to reports, Xi Jinping will skip next week’s BRICS summit in Brazil. That’s a first but not entirely unprecedented: Xi conspicuously missed a scheduled appearance at part of the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa. I analyzed that here:
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@BrianTHart
Brian Hart
16 days
RT @CSIS: A major Taiwan contingency, such as a quarantine, blockade, or invasion, could significantly disrupt the flow of trade through th….
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