Bluechip
@blue_chip1
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Twitter account is mainly for Entertainment - BUT I will stand by what I Tweet! Value Investor / Short Garbage
California
Joined January 2020
2025 New Top 10 Conviction shorts with 1yr target time frame: 1. $LWLG 2. $AEVA 3. $JOBY 4. $OKLO 5. $MSTR 6. $IONQ 7. $AI 8. $CRWV 9. $AUR 10. $CVNA Short Thesis on each:
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Carvana allegedly sells its less desirable, unsold, or "toxic" inventory to DriveTime. Garcia III dumped $3B to keep DriveTime afloat and absorb the loses. These are serious allegations... $CVNA
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$BTG... Best Long Miner Opportunity. Once they get Goose Mine operating at Capacity; this is a 2x bagger.
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Sanity Check (sorry I mean Insanity Check): At $103B Market Cap $CVNA is now larger than 392 of the S&P500 firms!! Let that sink in... Larger than Nike, Starbucks, CVS, Altria, DoorDash, Dell, 3M, UPS, ABNB, COIN, EA, Marriott, Synopsys, etc.
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More details - everything is bad: Customer traffic, profitability, sentiment...
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Auto Dealer sentiment at lowest levels since COVID🤣 Sure, $CVNA sales are on fire. Let that fraud sink in🚨
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$CVNA will be one of the Top 100 companies in S&P at >$100 billion while selling junk loans in pyramid scheme of debt just to stay afloat. It’s now as valuable as Bristol-Myers Squibb $BMY that brings in nearly $2 billion a quarter of net profit.
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Took Enron ~4 years from being added to the S&P500 to going Bankrupt. Prediction: $CVNA will beat that record!
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Funny how the entire Auto sector is hurting: From Retailers to Suppliers. $AZO Yes $CVNA - No problem!
$AZO AutoZone GAAP EPS of $31.04 misses by $1.36, revenue of $4.63B misses by $10M same-store sales and margins fall short of expectations
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$LULU Was added to S&P500 on Oct 13, 2023. Was about +5% at the start of trading in the S&P500 and it was trading -32% 1 Year Later!!
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Oh... Dealers still working to figure out the magic recipe!! Hint: Subprime loans to anyone. $CVNA
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FYI $SMCI Announcement of S&P500 addition on March 1, Joins on March 18. Round trips entire pump in 2 weeks.
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Can't believe the S&P500 Committee agreed to that... That is a real slap in the face.
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The Cherry on the Sundae! $CVNA Unfortunately, this changes the short thesis; they can dilute to infinity and Index ETF flows will keep creating buying support. Explains the front running this week.
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Rejected for your Auto Loan? No Problem, call Junkana Golden age of subprime grift: $CVNA
Rejection rate for all types of credit (auto loan, credit card, credit card limit increase, mortgage, mortgage refinance) over past 12 months rose to a an all time high of 24.8%, per Charles Schwab.
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@blue_chip1 This is the UBS analyst with a $450 target on $CVNA. Avg return of -9.8% during a bull market
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OH, Sure UBS... Disruptor $CVNA can grow 25% CAGR forever! Everyone has short memories of 2022 when the disruptor was disrupted 98% by a small credit tightening cycle!
UBS initiates $CVNA with a buy rating and TP of 450, 20% upside to the current price. The analysts sees an EBITDA CAGR of 25% through the remainder of the decade and a 2.5x of their market share. Carvana is up 85% YTD, 5x the S&P 500.
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