bio_mann
@biomannn
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Value trader. All posts are personal opinions and are not recommendations in any form.
Joined October 2021
$abvx please don't embarrass yourself more and remove capital from the handle.š
$ABVX -Remind us: How does a āwinning bidā work with an actively traded Co like Abivax? When Lilly bid USD 100, and tomorrow market price is USD 300, will they simply pay USD 100- because they are the āwinning bidā? Everyone wants Abivax bought out, but this so hyped up. Scary
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$abvx The timeline is bit weird.Why would Lilly execs meet the govt if other parties are still in the mix? I think the reporting timeline is off. The bidding took place initially and Lilly won the bid with ABVX, reached out to the govt on steps to facilitate the deal.
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$abvx 2.Increased preclinical work on CD has meaningfully raised the probability and value assigned to the CD pipeline. 3. Lilly being emerged as a winner tells you abt the valuation.. absolutely streamrolled the competitors. Stock it sitting at 1 trillionš
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$ABVX Hereās why the deal could be > $200M š¶āš«ļø 1.Marc has repeatedly stated across at least 2 interviews that the UC oppty is larger than the mkt currently perceives and is expanding rapidly The fact that a deal was reached suggests he secured terms aligned with his expectations.
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$abvx For all the ones speculating on the stage of discussions.. you donāt meet the girl's father before youāve done the dance š
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$abvx If the transaction involves Lilly stock in any capacity, we could see some crazy numbers.
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$abvx Lets assume the worst case scenario for giggles,and French govt indeed blocks acquisition by a US company, do you think David Ricks who has a working relationship with Trump and current admin would allow Abvx to sell its drug in US easily? Without US market abvx is 0.
$ABVX - Whatās odd (concerning) about the Abivax / Eli Lilly situation - Long thread We read the La Lettre article on $LLY officials (apparently) meeting French regulatory authorities, and take this for granted for the moment. We however donāt jump on the hype train. We
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$abvx
Well writen thesis why $LLY wants to buy $ABVX But doesn't say anything why $ABVX wants to sell itself to anybody
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$abvx Also Lilly will absolutely stream roll other bids. No competition.
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$ABVX: Unless the French government wants the company to wither and die, the deal is effectively done.
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$abvx As for these option flows, you are probably better off assuming they donāt mean much. Helps you avoid burning your account in the long run. With the stock sitting around a $10B valuation, this kind of activity is basically a drop in the ocean-- my 2 cents.
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$abvx This is checkmate to all Big Pharma. Take your sweet time at your own risk. King move from Marc.
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$abvx The fact Marc keeps reiterating the size of UC market and how Obefazimod is going to expand faster tells the interested party/parties are low balling them but then again all we are doing is speculating.
ICYMI, $ABVX CEO Marc had an interview with CNBC this morning, candidly admit: "We are always in conversation with Big Pharma." He didn't deny the rumors and put the pressure on buyers: "We donāt control what the BPs will do (the price they bid IMO?)." https://t.co/f0nvjaJc6N
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$abvx This downward move is more to do with them attending fire side chats and 1:1s at JPM. The market seems to be reading between the lines and concluding that a deal is not imminent.
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$abvx A whopping total of 4ļøā£ employees added from Sept 2024 to Sept 2025. š¤Æ
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