bg
@bg_alt
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rip bg's patience for zed, 2018-2023
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Joined July 2021
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huge props to
@zed_run
for taking the exploit i found and reported seriously and re-rolling UU ponies--this also addresses the community desire for a re-roll after aloha tim had similar data; hope we can all move forward from here knowing no one has inside information anymore ❤️
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just had a quick call with
@iamchrislaurent
, came away impressed with how much thought zed has given to the problem of secret information within the company (re: Sentinel "insider trading" allegations); he's taking it seriously 👍 made me more bullish on zed to be honest
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about a month ago i sent a few people at
@zed_run
, including
@TheseArentGoats
, my findings on some fairly drastic changes to how distance preference affects performance since 8/23
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someone asked me if i thought stamina was affecting horses before the 90% cutoff... here's position breakdown by # of races in the last 12 hours since 10/4, see for yourself :)
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better late than never, here's my response to ZED's response re: the 8/23 distance preference changes (i tried to keep it positive, tell me if i failed)
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man i have to stop giving a shit about zed
they're never going to change, their failure is inevitable, and i don't want to waste any more time thinking about it
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when zed turns on migration tomorrow you should know:
- the zed token address will change which will break 3rd-party sites and your opensea bookmarks
- you must re-list any horses you want to sell after migration
- new functions to freeze horses and accounts have been added 👀
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if you've been following me for a while you've probably figured out that my M.O. is to drop ridiculous alpha in the form of graphs that make people post the "please explain it to me like i'm 5" gif after everyone's already asleep
8
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did some research here and shared it with zed... this is a MASSIVE ring of stables owned by the same person botting race entries
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put together a little overview page of zed token resources as well as a way to view your balances on mainnet/polygon & add the tokens to your metamask wallet for visibility there:
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maybe the most important chart in zed... you HAVE to have variance to win, basically nothing else is important
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finally started an unofficial zed timeline... please retweet for reach so we can get everything else that's ever happened on there
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🙏🙏🙏 super impressed with the response and the transparency on this issue
Huge shoutout to
@zed_run
community members
@NFTBuddha
,
@bg_alt
,
@0xjase
who, for the record, had me eat my words 😘
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man the aussie gold skin is about 700 times cooler than the US skin... canada looking like a bottle of labatt red... mexico cyberpunk AF
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where did i go so wrong in my life that i'm now writing java to figure out how good a digital horse is 😩
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calling in my one favor for all the data i've run for y'all over the last year... go check out my friend's amazing art, please and thank you
YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE
After 3 months,200+ Hours and 450 Layers in Photoshop
I am proud to announce that my 1/1 debut, 'We Can't Go Back' is officially complete.
Let me tell you why it was the most difficult thing I've ever done in my life.🧵 👇
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this is exactly how a ceo should communicate re: uncertainty and change 👍
5
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the fact that they've been talking about this internally since at least the 19th and still haven't been able to communicate a summary of what happened is a little scary to me
👀 from zed discord today:
"Official comms are coming out regarding BGs post"
trying to be optimistic about it!
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happy new year y'all; may 2022 bring us another 10 million race entries to pore over, new methods of analysis, and the best memes WETH can buy
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👀 from zed discord today:
"Official comms are coming out regarding BGs post"
trying to be optimistic about it!
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3
67
@Mile_High_Studs
@mac_theblack
@ArbitrageRacin
looks like they fixed two of the bugs i reported, aloha tim + the sentinelgate stables are getting zero now
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holy hell, the paid boycott is already working...
yesterday (utc) paid turnover down more than 50% from 7 days prior! ($74k → $36k)
keep it up 💪
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have never seen more people quit zed in a 24 hour period than in the last 24 😢
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we have ourselves a lending marketplace 👀
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race entry time analysis for the four sentinelgate horses... the owner raced them close enough in time that there's a chance of uncovering their main wallet, if they had one and raced horses in it similarly
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someone asked on discord how many genesis ponies are left to drop:
Z1: 49
Z2: 54
Z3: 49
Z4: 55
Z5: 707
Z6: 1499
Z7: 2286
Z8: 3115
Z9: 1535
Z10: 1293
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here's how every horse with >= 50 races would move if the new class point system were retroactively applied (positive means moving to lower classes e.g. moving from 1 to 2)... vast majority would be in a lower class than they currently are
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what in the absolute french-friend crispety crunchity fuck:
what a punch in the dick to drop on players with, again, ZERO COMMUNICATION
@iamchrislaurent
@iamChrisEbeling
@iamFcarril
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was looking at 6 horse stats for voff and noticed something interesting--the 10% rake flips the ROI for the average horse with flames in a 6 horse race from positive to negative...
that is broken and really speaks to how rake should not apply equally to all race types
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got curious what chicken derby has been up to... 35x fewer races than zed yet they can still have a compelling narrative with actual dates on their homepage
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interesting, zed just added a way to ban people suspected of violating the terms of service from logging in
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another late night looking at zed race data... to anyone who's doing serious analysis hit me up to compare notes (e.g. working in pandas or similar), and to anyone thinking about diving in i think it's worth it... getting close to a full understanding of how the race sims work
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zed will also use the ~$1.25m in the treasury for other (as yet unspecified) events, plus add user-funded sit and go tourneys (which seem like they will be popular, and don't put $ pressure on zed)
overall it seems like this puts zed on a way more sustainable path!
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sqlite pipeline allows for cool queries like this... while zed of course has the final say, i believe this is the list of 4933 qualifying addresses for the may the fourth skin promo
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horses with 69 or 420 in the id have offspring with 11% higher average winnings than those without when restricted to offspring with 50+ races
(this is true but also totally cherry-picked and meaningless!)
i'm gonna cash in all my hard-won credibility and tell you all the most ridiculous things affect breeding now 🧠
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zed frustrates me so much sometimes, and so i get annoyed and i talk a bunch of shit (because i think it might make them communicate, or change, or something), but they never do, and then i feel bad for talking a bunch of shit
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oof, we just closed out week 46 with a 15 week low for distinct racing stables
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oh and not to be a tease but with
@hawku_com
's help i cracked exactly how 7-12 change in points are calculated... R^2 of 1.000, P-value 0.000 😆 it is WAY simpler than Elo
will share when i figure out 1-3 as well
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"Bg response is ready.. we are waiting on the Q&A on the new T&C’s so we can put them out together. If those aren’t done soon then the BG item will go out alone"
i'm literally vibrating with anticipation
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if i was zed i would simply not fumble what could have been a $7.5-$10m bag of $zed by doing innovate things like "creating simple users for the fucking token" or "writing a blog post" or "tweeting more than once every 90 days"
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ok i'm too impatient to care about followers, that was just motivation for me to go write the page 😆
here's what
@zandy_run
isn't:
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gonna be off the internet in yellowstone all day tomorrow, don’t burn everything down while i’m gone
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how do people feel about the whitepaper? anything surprise you? personally i think it's well-reasoned and i'm excited about the proposal process 👀
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you know you've made a good business decision when all of your market participants say they're going to boycott your change because it destroys their ability to be effective... even if that's not true, you didn't fucking communicate why that might be
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sit-and-go contract just dropped on mainnet
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also i have to give zed props for getting the comms out on the second $75k race 👍
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the fact that
@Spotonparts
can ask who the CEO is in zed's discord like 50 times and get no answer makes me think some shit really is going down
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trying to come out on top of another week in the
@flipsidecrypto
tourney... zed does make an appearance! give me a retweet so i can go back to spending inordinate amounts of time analyzing digital horses
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another day, another massive zed communications failure… how can one company have so many of these?
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to give some numbers to the recent zed announcement; zed was previously dropping ~$300k/month worth of treasury on daily tourneys
now the monthly breeding rake will fund events, which in january would be $157k, or roughly half... but the benefit is that it's sustainable
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that last line is 100% false... kyh, zlead, hawku, and me had no heads up or comms about this (and kyh is owned by zed now!)
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little thread on "why onboarding now" based on
@iamFcarril
's answers in the twitter spaces just now, it finally makes sense to me 🧵
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well folks, there's your official $ZED with a 1 billion token cap
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i honestly can't wait for this 👀
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very odd... you are slightly more likely to get slower when leveling up than faster, there's almost equal numbers of slower and faster horses (this is all horses with 100+ races in 2.0 and who have leveled up at least once)
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the number of people who play zed who don't understand how real world variance works continues to astound me
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this has been a long time coming; good to see some movement from zed re: people abusing the system
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data update, added the last two weeks:
numbers moving the right direction 👍
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got tired of using my own brain to make guesses so i wrote a genetic algorithm to guess how zed's elo works, now i have to use my brain to guess what genes will be useful
(i still hate math)
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@0xBookmaker
@kkirk55
@JamoeeshSteve
anyone spending more than like 1.5eth on a horse right now has more confidence in zed than i have ever had confidence in anything in my entire life ;P
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wow, the majority of legendary horse sales have happened on
@hawku_com
since april 4... clearly the data-based approach is the preferred one 💪
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