Balls Deep Capital
@balls_capital
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Long volatility short sleep. Markets, investing, housing, crypto.
USA
Joined April 2018
Interesting day for $BTC. Either we reject for the 5th time or pamp higher. It favors rejection at this point.
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🇯🇵 BOJ rate decision hits tonight, Dec 18, between 9:45 PM and 11 PM EST Watch USD/JPY and JGB yields first. A sharp Yen spike could force a carry trade unwind, causing stocks and Bitcoin to dump as liquidity drains. Is this already baked in for crypto? Hasn't been in the past
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How does @ARKInvest justify buying @BitMNR when the company printed 41.7M shares in just 18 DAYS? 📉🖨️ • Nov 20 (10-K): 384.1M shares • Dec 8 (Proxy): 425.8M shares That’s 2.3 million new shares EVERY DAY. $BMNR has been diluted 11% in 3 weeks, 81% since Sep 1 🚩
When you look at @BitMNR latest 10k it's actually insane Bitmine ($BMNR) diluted shareholders by SIXTY-TWO PERCENT in just 2.7 months (Aug 31 - Nov 20, 2025), issuing 146M new shares via their ATM program to buy $ETH Share count jumped from 235M to 384M shares
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Nasdaq looking fairly weak and ripe for a correction with a head and shoulders forming. It's also forming in a pronounced way on $NVDA If it plays out probably a great opportunity to go long at the bottom for an AI play like $SMH
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$ETH went to $1350 because of fear of tariffs, imagine what it will go to in an actual bear market
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The BTC and ETH bulls have a lot of explaining to do. ETH txns went up 35% in 2025, but price is down. Adoption does NOT equal price increase. Only after all the speculative investment (gambling) is removed do you see what is left. These can go much, much lower.
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When you look at @BitMNR latest 10k it's actually insane Bitmine ($BMNR) diluted shareholders by SIXTY-TWO PERCENT in just 2.7 months (Aug 31 - Nov 20, 2025), issuing 146M new shares via their ATM program to buy $ETH Share count jumped from 235M to 384M shares
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Tuesday's delayed BLS jobs report covers Oct+Nov payrolls Powell says recent figs overstate by ~60k/mo, actual growth flat or negative Expect soft headlines (30-40k/mo), and large downward revisions. More potential downward pressure on markets if perception is bad
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Shorting $SOL could be the trade of the winter here. Going to hold the 5x short for a while. Bear flag + nasty head and shoulders forming.
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All MSTR has become is a Bitcoin ETF plus debt. There is literally no reason to buy it over an ETF. It will not track to price, it will track to FOMO and panic selling.
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Still have my $MSTR short open. Bear flag just broke down, just like Bitcoin. $100 target.
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Breakdown started on $BTC, measured moved ~76k
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Can't wait to buy a @BoredApeYC when they are $10 just for novelty sake. The losses you see on OpenSea are astounding ☠️
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Remember all the people who trashed experts and said tariffs were actually deflationary? Average Americans still feeling the costs. The experts were right.
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This is pretty wild honestly. Really just shows how ignorant most crypto and bitcoin traders are. This is normal consolidation, this is trading 101. They will be even more surprised when this bear flag breaks down to sub 85k and they scream manipulation again.
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As Powell mentioned yesterday the BLS has been overstating job growth by about 60k jobs per month. This has overstated total payrolls by ~911,000 jobs in the past year, misleading Fed policy, markets, and public perception.T he overstatement should largely end with the January
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