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law school dropout, now quant finance :) not financial advice. message for inquiries.
Sydney
Joined September 2023
A Look at Momentum in Crypto Over Time: A Thread! 1/6. The strength of the momentum effect in crypto is weakening, as expected. This is not a failure of the factor, but a natural sign of market maturation. As liquidity grows and information spreads faster, inefficiencies shrink
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As for our Portfolios, we have been in cash. No issues. Amazing performance during times of allocations. Here are some BQ Charts with the 7D Liquidation Maps . Whats going on with $ETH?. Hopefully we will have these live ASAP for you people to use
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September is pretty important, we have PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday & Sentiment to end the week. Seasonality in September is negative, and it’s quite likely it’s going to be volatile around news days. The market is going to be very sensitive, a lot of people are calling for a
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Non-farm payroll of 22k? Rate cuts are certain at this point. Powell has a history of being late. The positioning will shift. The cut is likely getting priced in now if it isn't already. A lot of shorts just got taken out, don't get long and aggressive based off the news.
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Everyone obsesses over entry, instead of caring about staying in the move. In trend systems, PnL is driven more by sizing, risk caps, and exits rather than the first print. Hold strength matters, keep winners, cut losers, only add as risk allows. Think in portfolio terms,.
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Looks like we are in a compression zone with the GEX, 110k Support & 111k Resistance. OpEx is not right around the corner so it isn't that important.
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Not much really going on, going to be a quick one. We are below the PoC right now, which would be nice to reclaim and hold. The crowding model seems to be on its way back up, the market has reset. Nothing directional for now. I've been sitting on cash for near 3 weeks now,
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As a part of the new publications on @kiyotaka_ai we are going to be making some posts regarding logic + use cases for traders. Let's start with 3:.Buy Sell Volume Ratio: shows the ratio of buys vs sells in real-time. Helps you see when buyers/sellers dominate and where
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$BTC $ETH $SOL Liquidation maps, going to be improving the plotting. for now there is a lot in the pipeline.
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Momentum is slowly gaining yet, this is more than likely just going to be some chop. CVD Z-Score also showing early potential signs of a reversal, but a lot is going to come down to the key macro events this month. So for now, nothing really super important.Just a quiet few days
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onto the analysis then shall we, market is not looking too good, from a technical perspective. I've been in cash for a bit just waiting. there are some heavy shorts above 125k on $BTC, which could be rocket full if touched. yet well above current price. GEX support ~ 108k,
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Its also free! so heres how to find them & add them to chart, make sure you like them
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GM, The team at @kiyotaka_ai recently reached out to work with me on their platform, creating indicators on their new kScript. it's been super fun . It's user friendly & has been easy to learn. I've posted 19 indicators in the past 2 days there and have a lot more to come. I'd
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Quick GEX Update for $BTC . Support ~112k .Resistence ~115k . Also of note, 110k has the highest Put OI, there is a lot of bearish positioning/ or hedging around there. it could provide a floor if prices drop, as put holders might defend that level . For the calls there is
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GM, SOL taking out the liquidity above, still in an uptrend. A very choppy one at that. Nothing really to report on bar the usual. It's just a game of stop hunting for a while, as we patiently wait for either some more manipulation or real signal. Manufacturing PMI Sept 3rd. I
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Most traders misunderstand mean reversion, here's why it works short-term but fails over weeks to months:. Trend & momentum works over weeks to months, the edge compounds in fewer trades. This is why we build upon it & systemise it, it comes with its flaws, chop, higher equity
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