Aveek Mitra
@aveekmitra
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Investor; SEBI Registered Investment Adviser; Founder & CEO: AVEKSAT FINANCIAL ADVISORY; #investment #equity
Joined December 2010
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Aveksat Financial Advisory () provides customized Portfolio Advisory service & Equity Advisory Services.
Our advisory service is focussed exclusively to Indian listed equity space. We don't deal with mutual fund, debt or any other distribution product.…
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Completed reading
#hindenburg
report on Adani. We don't track Adani stocks so can't make comment on findings.
Report is made public by Short Sellers clearly stating their trading position (please note it).
Its timing around FPO is deliberate, if it fails, they benefit more. 1/n
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Kotak gave Sell report on Laurus Labs with target price of Rs. 350/- in Nov '22.
Price cracked post that report with Average daily Open Interest in Futures increased from 60 - 70 L shares to 100 - 110 L shares.
Kotak bought 21 L Laurus Lab shares in their fund in December '22😇
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India - Canada:
Too many youngsters in recent times went to Canada for studies & too many took PR of Canada in last few years. People go out for "foreign" degree, better life & stronger passport.
But in recent times, I personally told many, who sought my advice, to stop going…
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I have worked & stayed in different countries in my 33 years of working life. Travelled to myriad other countries for leisure.
No where I've faced poorer work culture than my own country. It's frustrating to do business in fast, productive & efficient way.
Most people in…
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We generated 78% return in 2021-22 after generating 150% in 2020-2021.
To clarify - we didn't take leverage or don't deal in futures or options & don't advice investing more than 7% of portfolio in small cap or illiquid stocks.
Please keep these lower risk style while evaluating.
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While
#HindenburgReport
tremor will continue 4 a while, remember, Indian stock market do have some of the best run companies & our disclosure standards r almost at par with developed markets & significantly better than China. And these shocks r not specific to India.
Read on 1/n
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A single mother aged 45 with total savings of Rs 25L approached us 4 investing her total corpus to equities 4 best returns! Her monthly income Rs.20K & lives in own house.
We advised her against joining our advisory & told not to invest in equity but in FD.
Is it right advise?
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Talked to a very reputed industrial group head who is well respected & famous. His view is: Indian economy is in a mess & more importantly, the Govt & policymakers r in denial mode. Unless d disease is acknowledged, how can it be cured? But none wants 2 speak out 2 avoid hassle.
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This new 20% TCS (Tax Collected at Source) on credit card spend in foreign currency in the name of catching tax offenders or stopping people from remitting more than LRS limit of US$ 250000/- per year seems ill conceived idea.
Earlier TCS was 5% & credit card spend was exempted.…
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If
#hindenburg
wrong, let Adanis respond. If others know, write pointwise than shooting aimless in favor or against. But I found it highly objectionable to see our beloved national flag beside the spokesperson of Adani while rebutting allegations on media. It must be avoided. 6/n
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Foolish countries trying to stimulate demand by income support, credit guarantee, tax cuts, fiscal stimulus!
Smart countries trying to muzzle demand by increasing tax on fuel, alcohol & God knows what!
Foolish countries can never understand how Smart Countries think!
Thoko Taali!
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Adanis have every right to defend their reputation in every legal way. How they do it is up 2 them. As citizen of India & investor in Indian market, whose fortunes r tied to India's progress & prosperity, I hope they handle it with dignity & credibility. It'll help all of us! n/n
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Trying 2 ascribe larger motive of tarnishing India image, trying to nationalistic sentiment around a company research report is sign of intolerance & stupidity especially when many seasoned investors raised questions in private & few in public about abnormal growth of Adanis! 2/n
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Ola, Uber, Swiggy, Zomato, Oyo: High flying, media savvy, glib talking, 'visionary' promoters who raised billions from "suit boot ka advertisements type" private equity guys, r sacking poorly paid frontline people in two months lock down!
So much of vision, strategy, planning!
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The way Press Conference is done by FM, it seems Govt is doing a big favor & giving away money from their own pocket!
How many times invocation of PM's name were made? And why? Is it his own money being given?
And out of this Rs. 1.7 L cr., a large portion is expected from states
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If small businessmen make minor mistake, entire system pounce on them 2 punish or 2 extract bribe mercilessly!
But Ravi Parthasarathy of ILFS; Rana Kapur of Yes Bank; Naresh Goyal of Jet Airways or Kapil Wadhwan of DHFL & many others 4 years ran w/o any accountability whatsoever
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Vedanta - Adani:
Many people asked my views on Vedanta as I wrote in details when Hindenberg report came out about Adani group.
Few media groups contacted me in last couple of days taking past reference. I disappointed them telling, "Sorry; I didn't follow it that closely!"…
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Employee Provident Fund has appx. Rs. 18L cr AUM from 6 cr savers.
MF has about 25L cr AUM & their Portfolio is public.
EPFO assure 8%+ return. 10 yr Govt bond yield < 6%. How will they generate this?
Their Annual Report unavailable in their website
They must become transparent
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Choking points of Economy started with
1) Demonetization
2) Complicated GST
3) RBI circular of 1 day NPA classification
4) Complex IBC process
5) ILFS going bust & NBFC Mess
6) Bank freezing big loans to repair own balance sheets
7) Payment delay by govt
Too much 3 years!
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India has no place 4 anyone trying to do honest & transparent business. Ease of doing business is a cruel joke!
Only crooks thrive as they don't care!
@SEBI_India
came with new rules which makes doing & expanding Investment Advisory business for serious advisors too cumbersome
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Let's not pretend! We all know, it's impossible 2 write a critical report like this sitting in India! In Nov 2014,
@nrmangal
was arrested 4 writing a negative forensic report back in '11 on Indiabulls (check up who were in power in 2 states where he was arrested & imprisoned) 4/n
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Whether
#hindenburg
has 5 or 500 people on their roll is completely irrelevant issue. Research & investment house don't work with 100s of people. All one needs is investigative skill, network & time. Idiotic arguments against d report will inadvertently make it more credible. 7/n
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When company who sells chappals with average price < Rs. 250/- & market leader in scale, makes such comments in its Q2 '23 result (festive season) after 2 Covid impacted years then either something is grossly wrong with Indian economy or in company's strategy!
Relaxo Footwears
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Astronomical valuation, low float & close proximity with Govt in power kept all Mutual Funds in India out of Adani stocks! LIC is only entity which kept buying it &
@TheKenWeb
made a good story about it months back. So, LIC buying is of no consequence 4 any serious investor. 3/n
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Buy back was taxed, now clubbing dividend income as taxable in hands of receiver, Govt killed both options of fair distribution 2 minority. It open flood gates 4 promoters to skim d company leaving minority in the lurch. LTCG not taken away
Who make these absurd policies & why?
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I think no company, institution or organization in world can compete with LIC when it comes to selling wrong products 2 gullible customers who r mostly financial illiterate & middle class savers thru bunch of hefty paid agents. And then using d money 2 rescue d big Corporates YoY
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Good 2 remind basics of
#AdaniEnterprises
FPO. Price fixed @ Rs. 3112/-.
On last day Retail quota was 0.12% filled. But Non-Institutional subscribed 3.32X & QIB portion 1.26X.
Why at present price of Rs. 1300/- those guys not buying?
What're those investors rational then & now?😀
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In India, too many youngsters learning to become investor - A good sign.
But remember 2 hold your enthusiasm beyond bull market.
Single bull cycle superstars become overconfident & lose out everything in next bear cycle.
And bear cycle performers lose out on extended bull cycle
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Why am I not surprised by last minute chaos about tomorrow's trading & Monday's holiday??!!
To me personally, it's minor issue & but for many, it may completely disturb their personal weekend planning.
But we should get used to these whimsical decisions. Since…
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Crude crossed $100 almost after 8 years since July '14! It remained above $ 100 for most period between 2011-14 which created inflation & political churning in India.
Crude price may come down much faster this time but note that India's budget math is based on $70-75 per barrel.
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We at got our audited performance report for FY 19. We were able to generate only 1.75% return. After two years of 40%+ return, this year we barely survived the onslaught!
This calculation is excluding dividends.
So we just managed to protect capital !!
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So, buttressing d point again: Hindenburg has vested interest in negative publicity of Adani stocks & they clearly stated about it. If any research house in US comes out with a detailed Buy report on a big listed Indian company, would it b discussed so widely? Why the drama? 5/n
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Looking at Afghanistan, people may introspect in India, how in spite of so much differences, we created a relatively stable, peaceful, democratic country from scratch slowly over many years. Very few people appreciate it.
We take it 4 granted & grumble about all its shortcomings.
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Last 10 years Head of SBI changed. But 1 thing never changed. Every concall they said "Worst is behind us"!
Now realize, it means one "Mr. Worst" is chasing them & they r trying 2 run away from him. Unfortunately "Mr. Worst" really kept them running for 10 years w/o success😁
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Jim Simons clocked 39% net CAGR over 30 years using proprietary quant strategy with US$ 10 bn closed fund!
His success rate is just 51% & average holding period is only few days
His fund recruits only mathematicians, physicists & statisticians!
He demolished many myths!
Amazing
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Why our FM didn't answer simple question of a reporter seeking 2 know if fall in crude price wd b passed on 2 consumers?
Arrogance of decision makers (who together made multiple huge blunders) is d last thing we can afford in moment of grave crisis we face now on multiple fronts!
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Very happy to inform, we at have completed Performance Audit of our Advisory Services for 2017 - 18 & we have generated 41.46% absolute return during the period. Audit report on our Website soon. In 2016 - 17 it was 41.38%. Our clients: Very Big Thank You!
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In Dec '18, total small retail shareholding in
#YesBank
was 13%
In Dec '19 total small retail shareholding is 44%
So, informed investors massively dumped shares on d gullible retail investors!
It's why we always plead please take help of Investment Advisers than trying it alone
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One very famous mutual fund manager, as soon as Budget speech is over, rated d budget 11/10 on a business TV channel!
Hope he uses more prudence & circumspection while investing public money.
Serious comment about Budget etc should never be made without reading fine prints IMHO.
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Big 3 IT firms headcount down by 64000. And poor growth anticipated for the sector.
It is combination many factor:
1) Excess recruitment in Covid period
2) Some low end jobs getting redundant with advancement of technology.
3) Very little innovation from big Indian IT companies.…
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I steadfastly avoid giving "gyan" on social media. But making an exception!
I earnestly feel more & more Indians should do three things if we want to become better human being, better observer of society or just a better investor
1) Travel far & wide around the world.…
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In a span of 1 year -- ILFS, DHFL, Indiabulls, PMC Bank, LVB, Yes Bank, RBL Bank:
Fraud, reckless lending, promoter issue, rumor. These always happen together & can create real economic collapse due to sudden mass trust deficit in d banking system. Wish Govt & Regulator act fast
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Bandhan Bank is following SEBI regulation of not selling promotet stake within 1 year of listing.
Now if they change d shareholding structure, it violates SEBI rules but follows RBI rules. And if it doesn't break SEBI rules it breaks RBI rules!
Can SEBI & RBI first settle it?
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Strongly suggest youngsters aspiring 2 b fund managers 2 listen 2 dis at least 3 times, make notes & think. Rarely you can find so many valuable things 4 you condensed in 1 place.
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Interesting data on "per car" use of Copper:
Non Luxury cars use 20 Kg
Luxury Cars use 45 Kg
Electric Vehicle wil use 84 Kg Copper (53 kWh battery pack size)
Further demand from Charging Infrastructure & Grid storage
Means 4.1 MT additional demand by 2030 at 30% adoption rate
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Small Cap vs Large Cap:
Few days back, in a TV interview I talked about relative overvaluation of small cap compared to large cap.
BSE Small Cap Index to NIFTY 50 index was about 1.85 then, now it's 1.90. So, extra caution is anyway warranted. The risk - reward is not…
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Point 2 note 4 of us is: In any financial market there will be frauds. Our job is 2 detect early & avoid. Regulators job is 2 quickly stem d rot from spreading & maintain d sanctity of market so that people have faith in d system. We hope, we will see that sagacity from SEBI! n/n
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Brazen misuse of public money by ILFS: Excellent review of Interim forensic audit of Grant Thornton by
@suchetadalal
. It's only on 1 company among myriads of ILFS entities. Deloitte was their auditor of 10 long years & did nothing. Watch 2 understand d rot
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Two terms in market I find objectionable:
1) Retail investors r dumb
2) You can never time d market
These r propagated as gospel truth by MF, Fund Manager, Advisors like us.
If we try 2 understand d hidden meaning, it says
"You don't know & I know & u continue giving me money"
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Many new investors buy a stock only looking at P&L & immediate growth opportunity. To us starting point is Balance Sheet & it's change over the years. It tells how is overall health.
Remember, only a healthy body with no signs of diseases can grow steadily & age gracefully.
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A very detailed and informative post on Bandhan Bank is here. Suggest all to read ...
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We heard in UPA regime that there was huge delay in Environmental Clearance both in Central & State level.
Meeting managements of different companies in Chemical Sector, I realize that delays r much more now & almost no movement of files for years in many cases.
Strange & sad!
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March '23 will be remembered in history of Finance.
1) A steady bank in US went bust in hours without bad lending but investing in US Treasuries!
2) 150+ years old safe haven Swiss Bank collapsed after years of misgovernance & misconduct!
3) Credit Suisse's US$ 17 bn Tier 1 bond…
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May sound cynical but I do feel India is not yet ready 2 make a business friendly country & it's a long road ahead.
Even if political intentions r good, Bureaucracy will create one or other road block just to kill their time & feel powerful!
Mindless regulations r in every field!
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Excellent video by
@suchetadalal
on Sterling Biotech frauds and strange acts by Andhra Bank. U & me can't expect this leniency from bank! IBC and NCLT r good baby step but a long way to go to make rich & powerful accountable. Let's keep watch on progress
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Budget discussion would continue, but let's look what happening in Automobile Sales in different category in Jan
Maruti: 154,123 in Jan vs 133,296 in Dec vs 150,630 in Nov
M&M: 52,546 in Jan vs 39,230 in Dec. vs 41,235 in Nov
Escorts: 6,043 in Jan vs 4,114 in Dec vs 7642 in Nov
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So many fraud & mis-governance happens, we forget in few months & stop tracking these cases. We remember only Vijay Mallya & Nirav Modi!
But Cox & Kings, CG Power, Cafe Coffee Day, Altico Capital, Leel Electricals, PMC Bank & that Rajan's list of defaulters? Do anyone remember?
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Correction in Indian market has very little to do with
#CreditSuisse
or
#SVBank
. Our economy has slowed down significantly, inflation & lack of wage growth slowly eroding power of our consumption economy, low export growth due to global slowdown affected external sector.
Also, a…
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Excellent interview by Manish Sabharwal of Teamlease.
Data he covered r known to us but he put all in one place. While listening if one note down d data points, you realize in short term we stare at grim realities. Will it be d beginning of major change?
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IMHO, a totally unnecessary & retrograde step in modern day. An entrepreneur bootstrapping startup can work sitting in coffee shop. He may not hv money 4 office. And 2 check tax evasion there r many ways. It would increase harassment & cost of starting a business. Who plan these?
@nsitharaman
Now it has become mandatory that companies do have a physical address. Physical register is to be maintained so that people can go and check them and there is a veracity of their claims: Smt
@nsitharaman
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Corporate Governance standards are the biggest challenge of investing in India. You never know when what surprise awaits you & how dangerous & deep rooted the rot is. People find innovative ways to fudge the books, cook the numbers, deceive the minority investors with impunity!!
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We r getting many inquiries at since we twitted about 41% return in 2 consecutive years in our Equity Advisory. Please note, we were lucky & do not target such high return. Our aim is to protect & grow your capital safely & steadily. Don't extrapolate past
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I'm no expert in Banking to make judgement on RBI's thoughts on opening Banking sector to big business.
But when we can't manage a Rana Kapoor, a Chandra Kochar, a LVB Bank & when India is experiencing worst form of Crony capitalism (Adambanization of India), I am very skeptical!
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As per July '23 UBS report (read today) some interesting data:
1) India manufacturing export is stagnant at 15% of our GDP for past one decade. For China, it is 28%.
2) India's manufacturing sector is 1/11th (roughly 9%) of China.
3) China labour cost is 3X of India but all…
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@devinamehra
Casual approach to problem solving, lack of respect for time of other person, nonchalantly lying for trivial reasons and lack of training --- all these have specific as well as cumulative effect. Plus ingrained feudal / vertical social hierarchy may also be responsible.
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Short selling isn't wrong. If there is illegality, it must b checked but borrowing stock & selling it is perfectly legitimate practice & helps price discovery
Did anyone probe when stocks went up 10X with low float in 1 year?
Shorter brings new perspective
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If you check history of investment returns, from any stock, it always come in spurts. Not much action for 2-3-5 years, then sudden run by 3X to 5X in matter of few months or couple of years. If one is invested in right stocks, monitor it dispassionately then that moment will come
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Oppo India Mobiles Pvt Limited possibly d highest selling mobile brand in India. Here're some data from their Mar '19 nos (in INR)
Sales: 21548 cr
RM Cost: 21320 cr
EBITDA: (-) 900 cr
Networth: (-) 1345 cr
EBITDA: (-) 4%
Debt: 2429 cr
ROCE: (-) 178%
Can Indian company fight it?
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At the risk of being proved wrong, I feel, the numbers of Q1 '19 of most companies wd be better than expected.
The pessimism around mid & small cap space is overdone & in next few months people may regret missing this dip to buy some quality companies.
Stock selection is key
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In investment journey, maximum caution is to be exercised in periods like this.
In 15 to 30 days stocks are going up 50% - 100%.
Unless you exit in time, before the music stops, you will rue for many years.
Some companies are showing crazy margin expansion. Check carefully if…
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On specialty chemicals, graph captures it well. We should strengthen our strength areas & focus areas where global demand growth is high. Intermediate API is US$ 77 bn opportunity growing at 7% where India share is 4% & combined share is only 11%. Can we go to 10%? Possibly yes!
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It is unfortunate that a formidable bank like SBI got into completely unnecessary controversy by trying to apparently misguide & hoodwink the Hon. Supreme Court.
No sane person really believed that SBI can't furnish 44000 (appx) data sets to SC within stipulated time with 2L +…
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Unfortunate & tragic hypocrisy of India is, corporates r cutting salaries & laying off people on one side & donating profusely to
#PMCaresFund
whose operation r very opaque till date & we don't know who r benefiting from it.
As a nation we must know how this fund being utilized.
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Very good resource 4 anyone looking for Buffett thoughts compiled together in single place; Subject, issue, idea & reference wise. Instead of reading many books to collate d thinking, dis one source can help to reduce learning cycle. Hope it helps ...
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Most temples, mosques & churches r closed. Many of these institutions have huge wealth. Why d authorities who manage these institutions aren't giving away these bounty 2 Govt when humanity is facing one of its gravest crisis? What productive use these wealth have & 4 whom & when?
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Since I was travelling, had a 2-min glance of Morgan Stanley report ('How India Has Transformed in Less than a Decade' dated 29th May 2023) when it was published.
Found nothing special! A random mélange of charts & graphs, very common for widely circulated research reports (may…
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Many may hv seen d interview of Raghuram Rajan in bits & pieces. Suggest 2 listen carefully d full interview. Very few people make macroeconomics explanations as clearly & cogently as RR does. Learned many critical things about issues. Thanks
@ETNOWlive
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Example of Index (NIFTY) & Economy disconnect: Financial is 6% of GDP but 39% of NIFTY; Construction is 9% of GDP but hardly represented in NIFTY. Also it has minor double count like HDFC & HDFC Bank; Bajaj Finserv & Bajaj Finance (former are part of holding company of later)
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In June'18, our then FM said economy would grow at 10% by Q4 19!!
In Q4 19, actual GDP grew 5%
In spite of having privileged information & insight, people can go so wrong!
In a rapidly changing environment, believe in no baseless prediction. Look at data.
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One over rated field which gets undeserving attention is "intellectualism on stock market"! Be aware of anyone telling meaningless things like "Buy quality at reasonable valuation": Entire sentence is bogus as v few tell what is quality, how to judge it & what is right valuation.
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For us, it's important 2 track Adani saga closely 2 estimate how the overall market sentiment be in H1 '23?
Disclosure: We've no investment in any Adani stock.
But if front line behemoth like Adani gets in a mess, entire market will be affected severely 4 long time.
As of now 1/n
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In last few days, possibly millions of words were spoken or written about Adani saga ranging from profound to stupid.
There r multiple things to discuss from multiple angles ranging from how infrastructure investment can be made attractive to endemic problems of corruption! 1/n
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Some new websites & video blogs r excellent. They have taken a leap forward from Valuepickr forum (where once I was very passionately active). Then came
@faltoo
&
@ayushmitt
with fabulous Screener!
Now
@Tijori1
&
@ishmohit1
do great jobs. Kudos to them!
Am I missing anyone else?
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Watch both Part 1&2 of the interview carefully. It is coming from a person closely working with Govt as part of PMEAC. It now appears that GST is not revenue neutral & there is going to be serious shortfall in revenue collection like past years. Insightful
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Two jokes circulating in WhatsApp r appropriate:
1) Govt say 2 avoid Corona Virus don't gather in public place; RBI says 2 get your money fm Yes Bank stand in queue!
2) PM at Global Business Summit today, sponsored by Yes Bank, wd tell how wonderfully we r doing as a country!
😃
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Fantastic video 2 tell very critical things. Some parts r obvious like where u look 4 multi-baggers. 2nd part is more critical like what's d speed at which u reached d goal, whether these analyses of past really have any predictive power & how tough it is.
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I rarely Tweet on issues except on Economy, Sector, Company & related stuff. But this stand up comedy of Sanjay Rajoura, is incredibly good.
It really holds a mirror on the Indian male's idea of masculinity, alcohol, sexism in very harsh but truthful way.
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Plain speak from AM Naik of L&T:
Govt has no money, just talking big can't solve problems, huge money tied up in projects, assets lying idle & electricity demand is down. He believes, hardly any serious private player 2 come up 2 do PPP projects with Govt.
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Very interesting tabulation of slow but steady deleveraging of private sector, industry wise, balance sheet. Now when private investment capx would resume is anybody's guess. But who may lead the recovery can be gauged here.
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Charlie Munger: Full Transcript of Daily Journal Annual Meeting 2018.
A must read for anyone interested to know how great minds think. To me he is one of the wisest man living today.
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This man
@vishnu570
is an amazing selfless hard working soul who does so much for investor community silently that no word is enough to thank him. An outstanding example of goodness in d socail media which is full of people who has no positive contribution to make than trolling.
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New Year Musings 2024!
(something similar but in more detail was shared with our clients on 1st Jan 2024)
I do believe & more importantly, act on my belief, that India will be one of the biggest contributor of incremental global growth for next 10 - 15 years and Indian stock…
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Most active fund managers can't beat index but charge fees & commission - It is a common complain we hear very frequently in last few years.
It happens not because it's impossible or extremely tough, especially in a growth market like India. It happens because of lazy investment…
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False confidence of knowledge is more dangerous than plain ignorance. We at times feel over confident with our own analysis & try 2 disregard genuine news & data, as noise & false evidence. Ego surreptitiously tricks us unless we remain vigilant about our own belief systems!!
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I don't think any new theory, method, software, tool, "revelation by Gurus" are possible in areas of investing. Hard grind of reading Reports, understanding business, evaluating alternative opportunites, doing scuttlebutts & managing own emotions will remain as important as ever.
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Biggest problem of economic management of Govt is Talent Crunch. There is no economist or adviser of repute left now!
Total disconnect between intent of Budget Speech & actual nos. & fine prints of Finance Bill!
Whom this budget would benefit? I guess no one can tell. It's funny!
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From BOSCH annual day. In 1 place, you get demand outlook snapshot from a company who has best view of d market from their formidable position. Also you get an estimate of EV penetration. In midst of all noise, it's possibly the estimate we can bank on. Indigenization is key 4 us
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Israel - Palestine:
The number of experts on the subject sprouted on fertile soils of TV & Social media in last few days is just fascinating!
I too, tried to familiarize myself on this out of curiosity, but found it too complex & with too many fascinating turns & twists.…
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I, as a SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, can't discuss about stocks or portfolios in social media. Except publishing audited past performance, we don't discuss about our track records too.
But unregistered fin-influencers, day in and out, 24X7 discuss about stocks, portfolio,…
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