I can't believe I'm writing this about Kyiv, but looks very likely that Putin is about to do the Aleppo strategy: indiscriminate bombing, huge humanitarian toll, pure brutality. Those who thought that Kyiv, the heart of ancient Rus, was sacred, it's not. Nothing is sacred.
We can and must do more. No holding back on sanctions - all banks (foreign as well) should be banned from operating in Russia, all Russian banks sanctioned. Secure the humanitarian corridors. Provide more sophisticated weapons. No more kids gloves.
Few observations from a short trip to Europe. 1. Unlike in the US, here, even in the UK, the war feels viscerally close in a way it doesn’t yet in the US where the main effect on the public is still felt through rising prices rather than Ukrainian in peoples homes.
And I hope so very much that I am wrong. I love this city. I can't imagine this happening, but we couldn't imagine a week ago what has become the reality today.
Over and over again we see that when the West acts from a position of strength it exposes Russias bluff and Putin backs down. This is the only way to deal w Russia: push back unapologetically, no appeasement, no concessions
All the US media are trying to rationalize Putin’s decision - please stop. It’s all excuses for a massive military invasion. It was never about NATO, it’s about destroying Ukraine because it wanted freedom. Simple as that.
3. Most of the focus (in the UK anyways) is on weeding out Russian corruption and dirty Russian money in London and elsewhere, but the US is seen as lagging behind on matching the level of European and UK sanctions against oligarchs
“When Trump voters were told that President Vladimir Putin of Russia supported their candidate, they started admiring Mr Putin rather than abandoning Mr Trump.”
After Putin’s surreal speech and decision to recognize the LNR and DNR, isn’t it time to shed any illusions that we are dealing w someone who was ever interested in diplomacy.
2. Among gov officials it has sunk in that the post-Cold War order isn’t “in crisis” or “challenged” but that it’s over. Everything has changed, but we don’t know yet how nor what we will do about it. In the US, this finality hasn’t sunk in yet.
The Russian strategy: Moscow makes first aggressive move, then calls any response, no matter how restrained, a provocation and excuse for military strike. Meanwhile, any international criticism of Russian aggression is called Russophobia.
It was Russian ships that opened fire on Ukrainian ships. But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov blames Ukraine for "provocation." He adds, Russia is no longer concerned about possible sanctions over the incident.
"As the west, we are 20 times richer than Russia, but if Russia puts its economy on a wartime footing and we continue on a peacetime basis, they can outproduce us" Wise words from
@sikorskiradek
Victory for Ukraine must be the vision driving Western policy. There is no settlement to be had with Putin. There is no such thing as a “frozen” conflict. European and global security is at stake. My latest in
@ForeignAffairs
@cepa
I don’t know how, after Russia started an unprovoked and brutal war in Ukraine, in which NATO has refused to take part, people can continue to make this argument. It’s either intellectually lazy or demonstrative of delusional denial of reality or both.
“We are in an extremely dangerous situation, and Western policy is exacerbating these risks,” warns the political scientist in a guest essay for The Economist
Vladimir is the most courageous person I have had the privilege to know - brilliant, thoughtful, and loves his country. Thanks to him, we have the Magnitsky Act and the Nemtsov plaza in front of the Russian embassy. This is a disgrace to all Russian people
We have gone past the point of sanctions, the economic threat didn’t deter Russia. Putin has shown that he only understands hard power. We can’t sleep walk into WW3. Ukraine needs weapons, air missile defenses, economic aid. Now is the time, not when thousands are dead
Saved by the bell (or Congress): Ukrainian officials were ready to bend to WH pressure to give a public interview on pursuing a Biden investigation until 2 DAYS before when Congressional pressure forced the administration to release the hostage aid
This is a massive military buildup. Purposely happening in plain sight - no more little green men. “there are now at least 85,000 Russian troops positioned between six and 25 miles from the Ukrainian border and in Crimea.”
A pleasure and honor to meet First Lady of Ukraine
@olena_zelenska
very impressive and thoughtful discussion on the effects of the war on Ukraine’s people and children. Thank you
@OMarkarova
Tumso Abdurakhmanov, a Chechen blogger and loud critic of Kadyrov’s regime, faces torture and death if Poland carries out its decision to deport him back to Russia. We can’t afford to have the second Khashoggi!
@AndrzejDuda
@MorawieckiM
The story of a fellow Ukrainian Jewish refugee now colliding with our politics. From Odesa to Brighton beach to Harvard and to government service. It encapsulates so many of our stories.
If history has taught us anything it’s that wars in Europe don’t stay in Europe. What’s happening in Ukraine might still feel far away for most Americans, but its not. The longer we wait to take decisive action to stop Putin, help Ukraine, the worse it will be when it comes here.
@kajakallas
speaks w vision and clarity on Russia's war in Ukraine on why "peace" can't be the goal at any cost: "a peace that allows aggression to pay off, while the threat remains of more conflict down the road, is unacceptable"
Another tragic murder of a Russian journalist - the list of Russian reporters who investigated the truth about Russian military activities in Chechnya, Ukraine, Syria, is appalling for its length.
There is no “deal” to be had with Russia - to Putin an agreement is just a meaningless piece of paper. There are no laws or rules. So while the West abides, Moscow will break every single agreement it signs.
Those advocating for a so called “peace deal” with Moscow should know that Putin can’t be appeased; there’s no such thing as a “frozen” conflict; and giving up territories only justifies more aggression
Russia’s statements that it’s military intimidation of Ukraine is about Ukraines NATO membership is a red herring. An excuse to use force to establish a sphere of influence
"Russia has really been using NATO membership as an excuse for this military intimidation."
@apolyakova
tells
@DermotMurnaghan
that "even if Ukraine took that difficult step and said, 'we will commit to some sort of neutrality,' this would not satisfy Russia for the long term."
My latest w
@AmbDanFried
on why a negotiated settlement in Ukraine is the wrong solution. Rather than worrying about humiliating Putin, West should focus on supporting Ukraine. No Peace at Any Price in Ukraine
@cepa
Russian parliament voted unanimously on a law that would criminalize dissent,
@vkaramurza
and other Russians who want a better future for their country are the targets. These are the actions of a deeply insecure and nervous regime not a “great power”
As McDonalds closes in Russia, a memory of the first one that opened in Moscow in 1991: we were immigrating to the US right when it opened and took a train from Kyiv to Moscow. We only had a few hours and I had a choice: see Lenin’s Tomb or McDonalds, lines were about the same…
Proof that when the West acts with resolve, vision and strength, Putin backs down. Exposing his weak hand with assertive action based on our interests rather than fears of provocation is the only way to deal with Russia
Putin on Finland and Sweden joining Nato:
"Russia has no problem with those states. So there is no direct threat from expansion to those countries. But deploying military infrastructure will provoke a response [...] based on the threats they create for us"
Friends put together this list of independent news sources in Russian, accessible in Russia. Please share and let us know if any of the links don’t work from Russia.
Друзья составили этот список: независимые новости на русском языке, которые доступны на территории россии. Если вы в России, проверьте, сообщите если что-то не работает!
I suppose that it’s only appropriate that an ice cream company would have an elementary school understanding of international relations and foreign policy
You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war.
We call on President Biden to de-escalate tensions and work for peace rather than prepare for war.
Sending thousands more US troops to Europe in response to Russia’s threats against Ukraine only fans the flame of war.
The Russian war in Ukraine will produce crises globally: Ukr is
#3
exporter of wheat and
#4
of corn, with much of it going to the global south where food insecurity is already high
Russia is strategically targeting civilians- they won’t and never have respected humanitarian corridors. The international community has to take action.
Sputnik is the top story on google when searching for Kerch Strait (followed by UNIAN and RT). Where’s Reuters, AP, NYT, etc? Why is this still consistently happening? Google is allowing its algorithm to be manipulated. We need algorithmic transparency. Now.
Creating more “frozen conflicts”is not the answer in Ukraine. US has a narrow window of opportunity to shift the trajectory of the war to force Russia to fully retreat. Now is not the time for handwringing and timidity.
“On a daily basis, Russian financial institutions conduct about $46 billion worth of foreign exchange transactions globally, 80 percent of which are in U.S. dollars…The vast majority of those transactions will now be disrupted.”
Some professional news: I'm thrilled to join CEPA as President and CEO and work with an incredible team of colleagues and friends. Working together on the front-lines of Europe to secure and advance our shared transatlantic values and democratic principles in the new decade!
I wrote about the love affair between the far right and Russia in 2014 and no one cared. Nothing here is new. “It can’t happen here” hubris obfuscates the obvious.
“It should be a bigger scandal than it has been so far that those who speak so much about constitutional liberties and individual freedom have cozied up to Putin.”
more of this please: There are more than 300,000 members of the official “IT Army” of Ukraine...“Everyone can do it..”you don’t even need to be awake."
Putins framing of Russia as a victim is disinformation - Ukraine didn’t invade Russia; Russia has been the aggressor in every recent conflict - but it serves a purpose: justifying military aggression to the Russian people.
Putin: “What’s happening now, the tension developing in Europe, is their fault. At every step Russia was forced to somehow respond. At every step the situation grew increasingly worse … and degraded.” He says Russia must now make a decision re: NATO, US.
It was an honor to see
@ZelenskyyUa
on his short trip to Washington. US support for Ukraine is critical not just for Europe but for US national security. This fight is about nothing short than the future of US global leadership.
Putin wants to present a "win" on May 9, but there is no victory to be had for Russia. Putin is destroying his own country as he seeks to destroy Ukraine. And he's losing on all fronts: economic decline, brain drain, huge military losses, and pariah state status. Short thread:
Still think that Putin wants an “off ramp”? 3 diplomatic dialogues fail: “there was no evidence from the conversations so far that Putin has changed course; he remains “intent on destroying Ukraine.”
Chilling scenes from brutal arrests of protesters in Moscow. When I was there for a few short days this spring, the tension of unrest could be felt beneath Moscow’s beautiful facade. Continue to be inspired by the brave Russians on the streets.
31yrs ago today, my family arrived in the US from what was still Soviet Ukr. Since, I have spent yrs in Ukr, getting to know it as a proud, independent nation w its own history, identity, culture. As Ukrainians fight for our freedom, today has a new meaning. Slava Ukraini!
Today, after an attempt on his life, Navalny says that he plans to go back to Russia to continue the fight against corruption. Incredible courage and perseverance.
Today’s Lawfare Podcast:
@BenjaminWittes
asks president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis
@APolyakova
about Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, why Putin chose now to attack him, and why the Russians are so ineffective at poisonings:
There is no US envoy for Ukraine negotiations (and no one is likely to be appointed) - American absenteeism is setting up Ukraine for a bad outcome on Monday
News flash: NATO is a defensive alliance against a country that has invaded Ukraine and Georgia, spread disinformation about you, unleashed a chemical agent in Europe (UK), launched the most damaging cyberattack ever (NotPetya), hacked the United States in 2016...
Macron turns against Nato's core mission: "Nato is an organisation of collective defense, against whom? … Is, as I hear sometimes, our enemy today Russia? Is it China? Is it the task of the Atlantic Alliance to designate them enemies? I don’t think so."
The post-Trump era has begun. No doubt that a Biden administration will bring stability to the transatlantic alliance. And that’s good for our country and our future.
I know that this is beyond the 24 news cycle but I’m still disturbed by Putin’s reference to a really disgusting “song” comparing Ukraine to a corpse that he is f*ing (direct translation) while standing next to Macron. True thuggery.
A son calls his mother:
- Мom! Mom!
- Young man, who is this?
- It’s me, your son! Mom, I’m calling from a POW camp in Ukraine!
- young man, stop calling me! They said on TV that I have a daughter!
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 talks are underway, now is the time to keep the pressure on Russia: West should sharply increase weapons supplies + ramp up sanctions. Putin only respects hard power. This is the only way to give diplomacy a chance. latest
@washingtonpost
Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”
Asymmetric warfare has been part of the Russian military doctrine since about 2003. War mongering - especially against the US - is a staple of Russian state funded TV. West has just been asleep at the wheel.
If you want to understand Russia’s current military thinking, there’s an important piece in today’s army paper by Chief of General Staff Gerasimov. He says Russia is “forced to respond to the threat (from the West) by creating a threat” & talks of “preparing the state for war.”
Since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Russia has: invaded the Donbas, supported Assad in Syria, interfered in the US and Europe’s election, attempted to murder the Skripals, and more. How does this behavior justify membership in the Council of Europe?
“Su-34s are falling from the sky in numbers that must be startling for air force commanders. Their newest planes are suffering the same fate as their oldest.”
“Pussy Riot became the only people to make a meaningful statement about Russian politics during the World Cup [and] created...an image of unjust and arbitrary authority, the sort with which a hundred and forty-five million Russians live day to day.”
Ukraine needs air defense capabilities to defend itself: S-300s systems are critical. Thank you Slovakia! US will reposition Patriot missile system to Slovakia to ensure NATO's security in the Eastern Flank. Smart and critical move.
In addition to U.S.-produced weapons, we have also worked to facilitate the transfer of capabilities from our Allies and partners around the world. I want to thank the Slovakian government for providing an S-300 air defense system to Ukraine.
Russian aggression against Ukraine only strengthens NATO. Of this is what “finlandization” looks like, let’s have more of it. Smart strategic thinking and resolve from Finland
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
4/ it’s as if entering McDonalds transported us to the West. It was well worth the wait. Of course when we got to the US, I quickly got food poisoning from a McDonalds Big Mac and have never eaten there since. But I’ll never forget that first taste of the West.
Powerful speech from
@SecBlinken
US “will not treat the principles of sovereignty or territorial integrity, enshrined in the UN Charter and affirmed by the UN Security Council, as negotiable.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that if any Russian forces moved across the Ukrainian border, the response from Washington and its allies would be 'swift, severe, united'
Navalny, the documentary, wins an Oscar - strong statement from the Academy on the victims of Putin’s dictatorship, first and foremost Ukrainians fighting for their freedom, but also Russian political prisoners
@navalny
@vkaramurza
@IlyaYashin
and many others who oppose it
An apt joke for our times (in Russian then English)
Сын звонит маме:
- Мама! Мама!
- Кто вы, мужчина?
- Это я - твой сын! Мама, я звоню тебе из украинского плена!
- Мужчина не звоните мне больше! По телевизору сказали, что у меня дочь!
@McFaul
Самое ужасное это то что большинство русского народа поддерживает эту войну против Украины. Даже в советское время люди понимали разницу между пропагандой и реальностью
There’s an unmarked Russian property in the center of DC - high time to confiscate it (note the dog sh*t that DC residents have generously left at the entrance)
The Kremlin has been poisoning its opponents for decades. It’s a disturbing pattern by a dirty and corrupt regime that is increasingly insecure and anxious.
Awful news about Navalny, who remains in a coma and on a ventilator. Brought to mind Anna Politkovskaya, who was poisoned with tea while flying to Beslan. She wrote about it here
Exactly: the Medvedev article on Poland is very similar to the Putin "treatise" on Ukraine. We should take this seriously (oh and let's remember how we once thought that Medvedev, now Putin's attack dog, was a Western liberal reformer)
Polish experts recalled Putin’s “article” on Ukraine. Prelude to attack. Medvedev now writes about Poland, also filled w/resentment & nationalism. Signal of attack? Not if NATO/EU/Biden trip to Poland show solidarity & determination toward Ukraine & themselves.
Unbearable. This is the brutal regime in the Kremlin: one that indiscriminately murders children and targets civilians. And we are still considering off ramps?
Just listened to Episode 1 of The Report by
@lawfarepodcast
with a friend who was shocked by the extent and savviness of the Russian ops, esp impersonation of Americans - “it’s like body snatchers”
Putin, who doesn’t care about the Russian people, is abusing our caution to not do anything to bring economic pain to the population. We are not going to have a choice: it’s time to impose some real pain
Many are asking how to reach the Russian people who have been brainwashed by years of gov disinformation,
as social media is banned, and as people don’t trust Western sources like they did during the Cold War. Some good ideas here (and some from me) 🧵
Fascinating scoop from
@AndreiSoldatov
@irinaborogan
on divisions in Russian security forces. Worrisome: many want full mobilization and more severe violence against civilian targets