Learning from meteorologists, climatologists, engineers, cartographers, aviators, authentic Christians and other good sorts. Software Engineer
@weatherzone
Imagery from Sentinel-2A showing the Clyde Mountain Fire (near Batemans Bay, NSW) and associated cumulus flammagenitus (pyrocumulus) at around 11:07 AEDT.
The potential duration of the warm → hot spell developing over south east Australia is staggering. Here's GFS, all the way out to the Buckley's and none end of the run.
The polar jet paying south east Australia another visit. Its subtropical counterpart is racing along at around 330 km/h, in response to the northward surge of cold air.
The Hay Plains, where the Lachlan River approaches the Murrumbidgee from the north east, before the latter joins the Murray west of Balranald. Reports from the ground describe the plains as like an "inland sea". Imagery from MODIS/Terra this morning.
Rainfall totals for south east Australia during the next week, according to a handful of global forecast models. The convective nature of the weather accounts for some of the variation - and hopefully some overestimation.
Sydney is having its wettest year in over 160 years of records. Here's how atmospheric moisture and pressure patterns have combined to produce the rain.
September's south polar stratospheric warming recently propagated down through the troposphere. The temperature gradient between the polar region and the subtropics is reduced, the polar jet weakens and the polar front drifts a bit further north than might otherwise be the case.
A gusty south easterly surge over NW WA - perhaps enhanced by outflow from last night's thunderstorms over the Northern Interior - carries a plume of dust out over the Indian Ocean.
Who benefits from the moisture once the tropical cyclones dissipate will be governed both by their tracks and the availability and timing of cold fronts - which convert moisture into rain. Lake Eyre's catchment could get a boost; perhaps also the Darling. Early days.
Upper atmospheric moisture streaming from the tropical low off the Kimberley (now Tropical
#CycloneBlake
), across SE Australia. Conversion of this into rain requires interaction with cool upper air from the south. A little of this is occurring over SA, VIC and southern NSW.
Cumulonimbus flammagenitus (pyrocumulonimbus) over the NSW South Coast, between Bermagui and Narooma. Combined effect of the fire, and convergence of the inland north westerly, coastal north easterly and southerly change.
Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre always ready for a drink; ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily near-stationary over western QLD; glimpses of Diamantina River floodwater through the cloud.
Frigid polar air mass producing cloud streets over the relatively warm Sea of Japan. The streets are more prominent in the lee of higher mountains (identifiable by their snowiness).
Satellite imagery showing the spectacular, vertically stacked low pressure system near TAS and the deep cold air moving over SA/VIC, in the direction of NSW/ACT.
The cloud of volcanic ash/gas (appears green/yellow) produced by Saturday's eruption in Tonga now extends over the Indian Ocean. It's being carried by easterly winds in the stratosphere.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy, having formed north of WA on 6 February, may yet traverse the Indian Ocean. There’s decent model consensus around a landfall over Madagascar in the middle of next week.
The sooner those Diamantina River floodwaters get to Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre, the better. Dust from the lakebed is being lofted by scorching southerly winds this evening.
Cool upper air will combine with a buildup of atmospheric moisture to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over eastern Australia later this week.
Antarctic sea ice anomalies during the austral winter to date. Coloured areas highlight differing ice concentration in 2023, when compared with 1991 to 2020.
A pronounced and prolonged loop in the jet stream over WA marks the system expected to produce an unseasonable soaking for parts of north western and central Australia this week.
The low pressure system wheeling its way along the Antarctic coastline is about to fling a destabilising air mass in the direction of south east Australia, just in time for Christmas.
Bushfire smoke over NSW highlights the progress of a low level easterly wind change as it climbs the eastern slopes of the Divide, under westerly winds aloft.