Andrew Lautz
@andrew_lautz
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director of tax policy @BPC_Bipartisan. CT for 18 years, D.C. for 13. @BrittanyEHarvey's husband. Views/opinions my own.
Washington, DC
Joined December 2012
My predictions are rarely correct, but I think this DOES mean that the FY2027 reconciliation bill is going to be called OBBB3: Tokyo Drift.
Is the Speaker a Vin Diesel fan?. Per Curtis Beaulieu, senior adviser for tax & trade to Mike Johnson, GOP leadership is referring internally to a follow-up reconciliation bill as "2 Big 2 Beautiful," a nod to the 2 Fast 2 Furious sequel to the movie franchise. from @doug_sword:.
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Ever wonder how U.S. government spending, revenue, deficits, and debt compare to our peers around the world?. My colleague @ariannafano has you covered in this excellent new @BPC_Bipartisan explainer!.
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RT @MarcGoldwein: A similar deduction limit was proposed by Simpson-Bowles, Obama, Dave Camp, and others. Kudos to OBBBA for actually enact….
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RT @George_A_Callas: For a more detailed explanation, @andrew_lautz and @RachelSnyderman at @BPC_Bipartisan published a great piece back on….
bipartisanpolicy.org
As Congress considers major tax legislation that extends expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and includes new tax cuts,…
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RT @George_A_Callas: Related to the improvement with the top rate described below, OBBB also adopted a new, better way of limiting the valu….
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To the best of my knowledge, we don't have county-by-county data for the gambling loss itemized deduction. We DO have data for "misc." itemized deductions, ~80% of which were gambling losses in 2022. Anyone have a guess which county was #1 for misc. itemized deductions in 2022?.
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One caveat is that TCJA was signed into law on Dec. 22, 2017, and the law's lower federal income tax rates and doubled standard deduction led to reduced tax withholding for lots of folks early in 2018 (i.e., a few weeks after enactment).
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The lead time before individual taxpayers see new tax cuts in OBBB is shorter than it was for TCJA. TCJA: Dec. 2017 ➡️ Jan. 2019 (12 months).OBBB: July 2025 ➡️ Jan. 2026 (6 months). Table below reviews OBBB tax cuts retroactive to Jan. 1, 2025 and showing up on 2026 returns.
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If anyone's curious, we have an enrolled bill on now for H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Link below. We also have a public law number - PL 119-21!. (For reference, TCJA was PL 115-97.).
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Some professional news, though not the biggest tax news you've seen this past week: I've been promoted to Director of Tax Policy @BPC_Bipartisan!. Excited to continue a) working with a great team of colleagues here who make me better, and b) nerding out on tax policy every day.
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I helped @ashhwu, @christinezhang, and the @nytgraphics team on this interactive quiz for folks to understand how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act affects them. I love these tools bc they help people grasp the impact of big laws like this. Check it out:.
www.nytimes.com
The wide-ranging domestic policy legislation could impact your taxes, clean energy choices, health care access and more.
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RT @GS_Watson: Looks like JCX 35-25 will be our new JCX 67-17 after all! I am sure @andrew_lautz is looking forward to have 97 copies of th….
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#3: We'll be discussing OBBB for years, in part because some of its headline tax cuts expire early (2028 and 2029), and in part because some of the spending cuts and tax increases that pay for the bill phase in over time. Get ready for another tax debate in 2028, at latest.
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#2: The bill cuts spending to partially offset $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, but doesn't cut enough to fully pay for them. On net, the bill is projected to add $3.2 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years—and $3.9 trillion if accounting for interest on all that new debt.
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📈📉📊 3 charts that help define the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. #1: The tax bill is hundreds of pages, and complicated, but 97% of the net budget impact comes from just 7 provisions—all extensions or modifications of the 2017 tax law.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is now a presidential signature away from becoming law. I have new versions of my charts, comparing pre-OBBB law to OBBB for a number of key provisions. Now with 10-year budget impact included. Web links for each of these in the next tweet!
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RT @ericadyork: The large stock of existing debt is a big factor here. If existing debt were smaller, the higher interest rate effect may n….
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While the bill is unique in the scale of its deficit impact, one thing that's different from any major deficit bill since the GFC is we're now at record debt AND elevated interest rates. Future dynamic effects will be bad for new spending and tax cuts. Welcome to the new era.
One thing that’s genuinely novel to me about this tax bill is that at least three major models have “dynamic” scoring estimates — estimates that account for subsequent economic growth — finding the bill to be more, not less, expensive, because higher interest costs slow growth.
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