Confidence increases concerning Wednesday's potential scenario across Dixie Alley (MS/AL). Kinematic & thermodynamic parameter space favors initiation of convection with meaningful longevity; northern extent of potential is modulated by the positioning of the surface warm front.

A rapid spike in convective activity appears increasingly likely across Dixie Alley (particularly MS/AL) this coming WED-THU. Synoptic system currently appears to feature middle-echelon parameter fields conducive to rotating convective structures; data continues to be evaluated.

Fred's arrival to the Gulf Coast could encourage non-zero tornado potential this weekend/next week across parts of FL, GA, perhaps AL. Areal extent of convective potential is heavily influenced by cyclone trajectory; areal/magnitudinal extent becomes clear as guidance matures.

The general flow of guidance makes it evident that non-zero tornado potential could transpire Saturday somewhere across LA/MS/AL. Data is pretty self-explanatory; the magnitude of tornado potential will generally depend upon a selected location relative to PTC's track/trajectory.

A pretty remarkable uptrend in severe weather is being observed with the flow of mid-range guidance. Upper pattern appears to embrace a more-volatile regime optimized for periodical large-scale convective events across the Plains through MS Valleys over the next couple of weeks.!

Noteworthy convective potential is becoming more prevalent amongst guidance this weekend across parts of Dixie. Thermodynamic proficiency & veered parameter fields are observed. Cyclone trajectorial & evolutionary uncertainty exists; variability in energetic/kinematic alignment.

12km is interesting WEDS over parts of Dixie. NAM depicts conducive moisture influx encouraging PBL destabilization; lower-level tropospheric fields/deep layer vector orientation contribute to enlarged/curved hodograph display. Divergences exist; thermodynamic deficits possible.

A tornado just hit our house in S Birmingham. We’re fine, but our patio is destroyed. I’m just so glad that we survived, I feel like I’ve been spared. I’ve never seen my life flash so fast. it’s much scarier when you’re with your family and not chasing. I’ll post updates later.

No surprise here - 00z HRRR suggests an EXTREMELY conducive thermodynamic/kinematic convective initiating zone will overspread a notable portion of the Deep South regarding Thursday's possible tornado outbreak. Parameters are supportive for supercells w/ all significant hazards.

ROUND 2: More significant convective potential MIGHT be in the horizon; mid-range guidance continues to depict the birth/propagation of a particularly dynamic upper system ravishing Dixie THURS. Trajectorial variability remains; meaningful boundary-layer generation considerable.

DIXIE ALLEY CHASERS: most guidance has accelerated into noteworthy agreement concerning the return of meaningful convective generation/preservation capable of tornadoes across the depicted parameter space [MS, AL, TN, GA]. SPC will delineate risks if guidance maintains momentum.

For everyone unaware. we're closely evaluating output concerning the potential for SVR/TOR to return across regions of Dixie on Thursday. Sufficient parameter space for surfaced-based storm generation is perpetually observed per GFS; Euro however disagrees. Stay tuned, Dixie.

Another illustrious performance regarding the continuous flow of precision/momentum of model data concerning a potential severe/tornado event materializing on Thursday over the heart of the Deep South; thermodynamics, kinematics, & their alignment continues to look meaningful.

After carefully observing trends, it's been concluded that there has been some increase in projected convective alignment concerning next week's system. Kinematic fields continue to be portrayed as significant. Uncertainty regarding the composite thermodynamic profile continues.

Notable increase in trends identified w/ latest round of CAMs, HRRR projects greater threshold of convective parameters for tomorrow's event. Semi-discrete supercell development possible over MS/AL during the afternoon/eve; things falling into better spatiotemporal alignment. 👀

Global models portray the return of periodical cyclogenesis taking place over portions of the central CONUS. which could correspond to eventual episodic SVR/TOR potential over the southern states. No particular scenario has any specific merit yet; tornado season could be near.

Complicated forecast; 00z HRRR conveys traditionally potent parameters supportive for the production/maintenance of a few intense supercells tomorrow afternoon/evening [E OK, AR, S MO]. Minor differentiation among CAMs. Any storm that evolves in this domain could drop a twister.

Cyclogenesis is anticipated to occur over portions of the Midwest on Saturday. as an eastward-trailing cold front could be the end result. The return of moisture in relation to augmented low-level shear could help yield a few supercells over E OK, AR, & S MO later Saturday. 👀

3km & more mid-range solutions continue painting a nice picture for late Wednesday/early Thursday morning across S AL. Extreme SRH, large hodographs, & very high wind fields have been documented. CAPE has somewhat increased (especially further to the S). PWATs are a nightmare.

Euro continues to remain consistent regarding the possible promotion of isolated tornado activity taking place across portions of AL associated w/ the approaching tropical system Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Favorable wind profiles & low CAPE dictate the soundings.