Alexander John Lee
@alexanderlee314
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protocol engineer @ Miden | Rust | Solidity | ZK | web3 sec
Joined May 2022
life update: I still haven’t left Buenos Aires after @EFDevcon and now im addicted to empanadas
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I will defer to @SuccinctJT on this one 😅 I read Shor's original paper from 1994 & one from Microsoft research "Quantum Resource Estimates for Computing Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithms" and got super hyped and then made my tweet thread. I know very little about the
@alexanderlee314 I want to flag something about the logical qubit chart and extrapolation here. Many of those "logical qubits" are distance-2 codes (2 physical qubits per logical qubit) — these can only detect errors, not correct them. The logical qubits needed for cryptanalysis require hundreds
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really good to see all these AI companies getting into web3 security!
Surf Hack: A Grok-powered agent that detects smart-contract vulnerabilities in real time. @zhimao_liu @ryanli_me @CasperYang10 @James_dai
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Wrote this thread after reading @SuccinctJT 's thread 😅
1/ Quantum computing predictions lately range from "public key cryptography will be broken in 2 years" to "it's a century away." Both are wrong. My latest post explains what publicly known progress actually supports — and what blockchains should do about it. Thread below 🧵
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[11/11] TLDR: We are closer to Q day than many people think. We are nearing the end of 2025, and its possible that Q day is in 2031, only 5 years from now. tick tock
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[10/11] The global crypto market cap is currently ~$3.1T. IF the annual probability that a quantum computer breaks ECC is just 1% starting in 2030 (assuming constant market cap), then the actuarially fair insurance yearly premium for total loss is ≈ $31B per year.
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[9/11] Breaking ECDSA would be catastrophic for the entire blockchain ecosystem, leading to a potential multi-trillion dollar loss. That's why we need to start migrating to PQ crypto across the ecosystem now.
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[8/11] On Bitcoin, only outputs whose public keys have already been revealed on-chain are directly exposed to quantum attacks; standard unspent P2PKH, SegWit, and Taproot outputs reveal only hashes of keys and remain protected until they are spent.
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[7/11] It would take a government actor with a ~2330 qubit machine approximately ~9 hours to derive the private key of any Bitcoin address with an exposed public key (e.g., Satoshi's). https://t.co/3nG3j5kOpY
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[6/11] Quantum computers do not excel at "general parallel computation” like a massive GPU farm. Instead, they excel at a much narrower task: exploring an exponentially large space of inputs in superposition and efficiently detecting when any of them satisfies a hidden
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[5/11] How is this even possible? In ECC, your public key is: Q = n·G, where n is your private key and G is the generator. A quantum attacker using Shor’s algorithm puts the quantum registers into a superposition over many integer pairs (a, b), computes aG + bQ for all of
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[4/11] If this exponential trend continues*, we hit the ~2330 logical qubits needed to run Shor's algorithm on 256-bit ECDSA around 2031–2032. That’s when a sufficiently large fault-tolerant quantum computer could recover an ECDSA private key from simply by looking at the public
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[3/11] * Quantum computers pre-2023 had ~1 qubit, in 2023 Harvard/QuEra bumped this to 48 qubits, and recently in Nov 2025 Quantinuum achieved 94 logical qubits. That’s a ~100x jump in just 3 years!
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[2/11] Logical qubits are what matter, not raw physical qubits. Physical qubits are error-prone whereas logical qubits use error correction to run complex algorithms without crashing.
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[1/11] Above is a plot of effective logical qubits per year of the most powerful quantum computers. According to academic literature, approximately ~2330 logical qubits are required to break 256 bit ECDSA. https://t.co/7DcsFsVROo
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In approximately 5 years*, quantum computers will be able to derive your Bitcoin and Ethereum private keys from only your public key using Shor’s algorithm. a thread 🧵
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In approximately 5 years*, quantum computers will be able to derive your Bitcoin and Ethereum private keys from only your public key using Shor’s algorithm. a thread 🧵
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went to bed at 8:30pm on a Saturday night, woke up at 5am without an alarm. Worked out, drank some tea, then head to the coffee shop. On my morning walk, I saw people still partying at 7am 😅 am I an old man?
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who is in charge of https://t.co/vsxnnXFZGf? we need to change this to "the l1 is now cheap" also fix the values, txs are not costing that
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