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@afashag8

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skin in the game and lock in on @polymarket.

Joined March 2012
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@afashag8
afashag
2 months
I stopped reading the news ever since I started using @Polymarket. @Polymarket gives you information based on the decentralized opinion of people - and it’s not just an opinion, it’s an opinion backed by money (skin in the game). There’s no propaganda, no lies, no
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@afashag8
afashag
1 day
this is not a hype strategy. this is not “x10 overnight.” it is boring. and that is exactly why it works. if you understand split / merge, polymarket stops being a casino and becomes a tool for stable income. everything else is massive risk.
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@afashag8
afashag
1 day
why this works no guessing direction no leverage no liquidations risk is limited by the logic of the market you are not making money on price movement, but on the structure of Polymarket itself.
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@afashag8
afashag
1 day
when you should NOT trade if one minute before the end the market looks like this: 70 / 30 60 / 40 then i do nothing. i simply wait for expiration. after that, i take my original collateral back. no trade = no risk. this is more important than any profit.
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@afashag8
afashag
1 day
where the money is actually made i use markets of the following format: bitcoin up or down with a 15-minute expiration. what happens next: i do a split i hold YES + NO i wait for the market to expire 1–2 minutes before the end, it is almost always obvious which side is going
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@afashag8
afashag
1 day
the core mechanic: split split allows you to deposit USDC as collateral and receive the same amount of YES and NO shares on a single market. essentially: you are not guessing direction. you are simply controlling the math.
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@afashag8
afashag
1 day
the real edge is not code, but understanding the mechanics if you deeply understand the product, you already have an advantage by default. i have been on polymarket for over a year, and i still see people who do not understand split / merge and literally leave money for others.
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@afashag8
afashag
1 day
people are making hundreds of thousands per week on polymarket i make money in a simpler and safer way. here is a strategy that brought me around ~$251 per hour and five figures in a month starting with ~$1k. ~~~ the real edge is not code, but understanding the mechanics if
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@alphabatcher
Alpha Batcher
3 days
[ 1 ] The uncomfortable axiom of prediction markets is this > the largest profits do not come from superior models, faster reactions, or better intuition. they come from information asymmetry. Polymarket, by design, aggregates belief - but occasionally it reveals knowledge.
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@afashag8
afashag
4 days
It is very likely that @Lighter_xyz will distribute the airdrop on December 29. It all started with the fact that I noticed this trader https://t.co/HlJpXg3JJ6 he bought $YES shears at the market price four hours ago, a position of $24k, because of him I went to check the
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@afashag8
afashag
4 days
Trading volume in the last 7 days on the market "Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?" It amounted to $2,310,358, of which 68% ($1,578,795) were purchases of shares of $YES. In the period from December 12 to December 16, the main redistribution of hands took
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@afashag8
afashag
12 days
Market 1: Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale? bought shares of $NO at 13c, I plan to sell in x3-x5 Market 2: Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale? bought shares of $NO for 24c, I plan to sell in x2-x3 Link to the market: https://t.co/P0bWgfxh7L Now the
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@afashag8
afashag
16 days
The insiders were right again. thanks @Polysights for allowing us to identify them
@afashag8
afashag
17 days
Market: MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2–8? Suspicious wallets that have been accumulating $YES over the last 16 hours: https://t.co/qqexaYGv09 https://t.co/bcwkWQiiGW https://t.co/WGPyYK8Qte https://t.co/mCsCt70zzR https://t.co/84WIcKgFPs
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@afashag8
afashag
17 days
Market: MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2–8? Suspicious wallets that have been accumulating $YES over the last 16 hours: https://t.co/qqexaYGv09 https://t.co/bcwkWQiiGW https://t.co/WGPyYK8Qte https://t.co/mCsCt70zzR https://t.co/84WIcKgFPs
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@afashag8
afashag
19 days
Insiders again? Market "Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?" is up 30% on no news. New wallets have been actively buying shares $YES over the last 36 hours: https://t.co/DEFJ0rp5Wm https://t.co/w2JZRM4kaq https://t.co/MjQGlNLQU4 https://t.co/zoTInFQZhG
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@afashag8
afashag
23 days
I bought $YES shares on >30k ETH in the Aztec sale at $0.43. The idea is that once the public stage of the sale opens, people will start buying heavily and the probability will rise. The public stage starts on December 2 and will last 4 days. I think it will be possible to
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@afashag8
afashag
23 days
I already wrote about @stable TGE on November 6, but now I have a reason to remind you. Market: https://t.co/lzhMjwZ4dH potential insiders who are sitting in $YES: https://t.co/9fvHOLSXNr - $300k https://t.co/Ft3x2VYrHI - $50k https://t.co/4K7EooY6SY - $35k
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