Adam Chernoff
@adamchernoff
Followers
58,467
Following
405
Media
2,374
Statuses
20,981
🏈 All things NFL betting for @RASPicks . 15+ years of betting and media. Sign up for free year round betting emails in your inbox every Friday below. 👇
White Rock, BC
Joined September 2011
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
CDMX
• 162502 Tweets
Clara
• 130972 Tweets
#DebateChilango
• 115338 Tweets
Emma
• 72859 Tweets
Nuggets
• 71523 Tweets
Taboada
• 59618 Tweets
つばさの党
• 50903 Tweets
Murray
• 49126 Tweets
Iztapalapa
• 45747 Tweets
Jokic
• 36510 Tweets
Denver
• 35177 Tweets
Cruz Azul
• 30252 Tweets
Rayados
• 29245 Tweets
家宅捜索
• 27144 Tweets
Pumas
• 26493 Tweets
Tigres
• 25799 Tweets
Monterrey
• 25493 Tweets
#LokSabaElections2024
• 19978 Tweets
Oilers
• 17885 Tweets
Gobert
• 17170 Tweets
バンドリ
• 14969 Tweets
#ElectionDay
• 14736 Tweets
Gambino
• 14625 Tweets
InfoMINGGUAN PakPRABOWO
• 14354 Tweets
Jordi
• 14180 Tweets
Lebih KEREN KitaKOMPAK
• 13871 Tweets
LOSE MY BREATH REMIXES OUT NOW
• 13775 Tweets
Ernestina Godoy
• 12947 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Did you know every Friday I send an email newsletter about NFL betting?
Subscribe for free using the link below and join 4,000+ other bettors who read the insight weekly.
1
2
18
In the span of 96 hours, one of these was called a first down, one of these was not.
You tell me which is which...
93
440
2K
Sportsbook accounts will fill bettors Twitter feeds with consensus reports this weekend.
Ticket Count.
Bet Percentages.
Sharp/Square Action.
RLM.
These tweets are sent to provoke bets. But, they can be incredibly misleading.
Here is a thread with a few examples why...🧵
51
186
1K
Limits
Bet Rejection
Fuzzy T&C's
Voids
Enough.
Sports bettors have become an afterthought in an industry designed to prop up operators to acquire customers. Regulators need to step in and start protecting the player - now.
My article for
@Covers
here:
106
218
746
Checking off the Waldorf in Vegas as my all time hotel. View from the toilet is remarkable!
28
34
586
Week 18 finishes 3-1.
Regular season finishes 106-64 (62%).
Thanks to everyone who followed and listened to the daily podcast. Let's find a few bets in the playoffs. 🍻
34
8
545
Early games go 7-0.
Record is now 34-9 (79%) on the season.
Baltimore +1.5 pending as the last bet of the week.
Thread of NFL Week 4 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
17
12
171
91
14
536
Any NFL bettor can make (a fairly decent) total on their own with a pen, paper and seven basic stats.
Will this allow you to beat the books? Probably not. But it will answer questions and serve as a simple, basic place to begin making totals.
Here is a thread on how it works...
20
53
491
What is the $10 to $10,000 sports betting challenge?
A thread on why is this trend has become so popular (again) but also why it is teaching new bettors all of the wrong habits, setting them up to lose long term and encouraging problem gambling.
🧵Tap to read more...
40
68
495
A quick thread of XFL betting thoughts below as it is becoming a popular topic. In my opinion there are a lot of things being overlooked as we enter the first week of the new league...
23
38
448
STOP trying to fade the public! Bettors & bookmakers rooting intentions are not aligned because they play at different odds!
Say 1pm & 4pm games are each 75%/25% on the favorite.
Bettor risks $110 to win $100 on both 25% sides & goes 1-1.
Bettor: -$10
Bookmaker: +10
The end.
56
36
440
PI or not aside, did anyone see when the flag was actually thrown? I didn’t see a flag on the field during the return and the announcers didn’t mention it until the returner was past the 50. Was it thrown during the return? Also why did the refs care if there was block in back?
42
66
432
What happens to in-play betting when NFL Sunday Ticket moves to Apple TV and data feeds are 60+ seconds ahead of the stream for every NFL game on Sunday?
76
29
408
This week in 2010, I was 18 years old & landed in Port of Spain, Trinidad for my first "real job" as a bookmaker at "The Palms".
In my mind, I pictured a Vegas style casino.
No. I was dropped off at a "members club" on top of a Burger King in a hotel.
A thread on how it went👇
27
26
410
A couple morning after Super Bowl thoughts...
1. Chiefs defense won every high leverage spot late, and 49ers defense lost theirs
Reminded me of the Bills game. Aiyuk was wide open final OT drive on 3rd down - Jones unblocked got home just in time. McDuffie unblocked on 3rd down…
70
24
384
1st Anniversary: Suite at Dann Carelton in Medellín with full weekend spa passes.
7th Anniversary: Drive to town to share a pot of coffee and French Toast.
In play marriage total holding steady at 49.5 years, shaded to the over. 📈
29
3
378
Week 7 Sunday goes 7-3.
Season is now 54-17 (76%)
NO/SEA u44.5 pending.
Thread of NFL Week 7 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
14
8
258
34
7
374
First time I’ve ever hung someone out to dry on Twitter in 11 years, but this is unfortunately too common a take.
Perhaps the most misinformed tweet ever sent in history of gambling twitter?
If you’re reading this, use this and do the exact opposite.
@bmf1314
@adamchernoff
Most ridiculous betting myth. Theres no reason to have 7 different sites. Also, you only pay juice when you lose. So if you lose alot, line shopping doesn't do a thing, you need to quit gambling
37
3
6
42
12
361
The easiest way for most bettors to create NFL Power Rankings explained in a thread. (Key words in that sentence are "easiest" and "most bettors".)
The 0-100 method begins as it sounds, take a piece of paper and draw a line with 0 on one side and 100 on another.
12
23
354
As mentioned during the halftime show, some surprise news as today was my last day with
@Covers
. I made the decision to leave the awesome team there to pursue a unique opportunity. I have nothing but good things to say about the team and will miss doing the shows with everyone.🍻
60
6
353
Happy New Year to everyone!
Thanks for listening to the show and watching football with me in 2022.
Here is to a 2023 of no short game yips, good BBQ, health and lots of winning wagers from RAS.
Enjoy the evening with friends and family. 🍻
41
5
346
I’m writing my first article in a long time tomorrow.
This weekend I witnessed the dirtiest thing I’ve ever seen a sportsbook do to its players. Enough is enough.
Gaming regulators need to wake up and start doing something to look out for the players that make the industry.
42
18
329
The "Cash Out or Not?" trend is sweeping social media.
Unfortunately, people love to talk about this - much more so than they love to understand basic math and betting principles.
Here is a thread explaining why "Cash Out" is a terrible choice, 99% of the time.
Tap to read 👇
34
46
333
Instead of starting the announcement with the penalty call and yardage, Hoculi builds up to deliver the message for maximum reaction because he loves being part of the game as much as any other ref.
35
22
320
Broadcasts love to talk about Diggs when he gets a pick, but oddly never comment on the 3-4 times per game in pure coverage he gets burned.
61
16
319
The Ravens called a running back rush attempt just three times past the 5:36 mark of the 1st quarter.
Shocking play calling considering the core of the Ravens offense and that the game was not way out of control.
30
48
314
Wife is out of town for the weekend and I just bet $500 on European Curling totals. How is your Friday evening going?🥌
cc
@kenpomeroy
32
8
309
Thank you for following for making October the busiest month in history of The Simple Handicap and supporting tweets.🏈
Top 50 pod in sports for North America, 100,000+ downloads with a 92% consumption rate, 8.5M impressions and 1.5M visits.
You guys are the best.🍻
10
4
304
Denver Broncos in the 2H:
1st and 10 at IND 9 - blocked FG
1st and 10 at IND 27 - FG
1st and 10 at IND 32 - ends in INT
1st and 10 at IND 19 - ends in INT
1st and 10 at IND 14 - TO on downs
3 points scored
21
42
297
Simple rule of thumb to follow...
If you see -2.5 -110, you want -130 ML or better.
If you see +2.5 -110, you want +110 ML or better.
Both are not exact answers, as the lower the total, the more valuable the points become. Opposite for higher totals.
9
16
295
I learned a simple way to calculate a baseline for NFL totals during my first bookmaking job almost a decade ago. I still use it today to spot numbers on the board at open which may be too low or too high. I thought I would explain today in a thread below to offer some value. 👇
17
25
288
Hell of a win.
This tweet was interesting though...
How many times have you looked at a cash out offer and thought the same thing to yourself?
"Why is this offer so low? Shouldn't it be more?"
Here is a quick thread explaining why cash out offers are always underwhelming.
15
24
288
Many have offered, but I choose not to read ads because your time each morning is important and if I am asking for 15 minutes, I would rather provide value for 15 minutes than I would provide value for 14 minutes and tell you what to use to shave your junk for 1 minute.
@adamchernoff
Love listening Adam. When are you going to kick the pod off with an advertisement?? You’re overdue to start bankrolling with all those listens
0
0
1
21
2
282
The NFL Draft is a great example of why all bettors must have multiple sportsbooks. Price shopping is key, but it is important to understand how much vig is priced into the one way markets before blindly betting price differences.
Here is a thread with some thoughts.
13
32
283
Get Mark Sanchez a network contact and doing high profile games more often. He is terrific on broadcasts.
55
4
278
Might be controversial, but amid the Las Vegas sportsbook nacho scandal it needs to be said that nachos are the worst snack to order.
Huge variance in bites, never equal topping distribution, sauce ratio is seldom right and they never fill anyone up.
Just don't order them.
77
7
278
Thread of NFL Week 8 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
7
9
264
Thread of NFL Week 7 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
14
8
258
My bet thread got a little jumbled for some reason this week. TNF went 1-1, these are my bets pending from this week...
CLE -3
PHI -3
IND -2
IND TEN o50.5
WSH/DEN o44
17
5
257
Week 18 Motivation Thread:
GB @ DET:
Meaningless if GB wins tonight - they get
#1
seed
CHI @ MIN:
Meaningless if MIN loses tonight
NE @ MIA:
NE in but must win to try win AFC East
IND @ JAX:
IND needs to win to make the playoffs
NYJ @ BUF
BUF wins AFC East with win
(1/3)
17
23
245
Hooray! Single game betting now available across Western Canada at all lottery retailers.
I’m going to walk down to the grocery store, grab some meat and bet $500 on the NFL total.
Oh…the limit is $100
Oh…the vig is -140/-140
Well. I’ll stay offshore…
What a joke. 🤦♂️
48
21
241
The play by play call for the winning play and moment of that all time playoff comeback was:
“Here we go for the win. Got it, but there is a flag down. There is a flag down. Wait a minute, there is a flag. There is a flag………………called on the defense.”
30
8
238
Lunch 100%. All you could eat buffet for less than $10. Would go a ton after chemo treatment and pound back slices to offset steroids. Pepperoni to start and then the Apple dessert pizza after. Pizza Hut lunch buffet was the only chain buffet better than the KFC lunch buffet.
Back in the day, did anyone out there look forward to going to Pizza Hut for lunch or dinner?
2K
573
17K
22
7
237
@FuzzyRaffa
Amazing how much things change in a year!
@adamchernoff
Minshew is a better QB than hurts who they run an Oklahoma offense for that will never work..however tough to switch game plans halfway through a game like that
2
0
2
22
5
243
"Winning, and Losing It All - My Decade In The Betting Industry"
I hope you all enjoy my story.
45
26
219
Was the FanDuel kick of destiny worse than the PointsBet Brees lightning strike?
23
14
240
I get the argument for all teams playing indoors. But, this is an incredible game, weather and venue. Would be a shame if over time these get taken away from the game.
17
17
236
Thread of NFL Week 5 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
9
17
236
I struggle to sit and do nothing, so naturally during this vacation I have thought a lot about betting on football.
As good as 2021 was, there was a lot I disliked.
Not sure this clearing of headspace will help anyone, but here's my thoughts of 2021 NFL bets in a thread...
16
4
226
I don’t remember a less compelling or entertaining 4pm slate in 15 years of watching and betting football.
39
9
227
The Jaguars final first down of the game came at the 5:15 mark of the 3rd quarter, trailing 16-10.
They won 20-16.
11
24
224
Both the Moss and Beasley props hit as does Tennessee +6 for a 3-0 night.
Week 6 ends 10-3.
Season is now 47-14 (77%)
Two props for tonight...
🏈 Zack Moss o13.5 rec yards (-30)
RB situation switching in BUF to where Moss is becoming feature back. Allen struggles against the blitz and I think we see Vrabel take chances getting after him. Daboll incredible at timing screen passes. Just need 1.
7
0
47
16
2
225
One of these is a touchdown.
One of these is not a touchdown.
🤷♂️
108
33
226
The one bowl season betting angle you need to favourite/screenshot.
"Bet and tease teams which finish the season top 10 in rushing"
Last four seasons:
21-11 (66% ATS)
27-5 (85% 6pt teaser)
2017/2018 Bets:
FAU -21 1/2
ARMY + 6 1/2
ARZ -4
NAVY -1
OSU -7
ND +3
GEO -2
13
26
217
Week 15 finishes 4-1.
Season record is now 97-51 (66%).
Thread of NFL Week 15 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
7
4
95
19
2
217
Thread of NFL Week 6 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
21
11
215
Is there a world in which VR headsets someday in the future would have Red Zone subscriptions? So in other words you could pay a "ticket" cost per week, sit on your couch and bounce around stadium to stadium for a first person view from the stands of all red zone action?
38
4
207
Clean, simple and reliable odds comparison direct from the sportsbooks to you.
Free to use when you need it - on any device.
Coming (very) soon.
17
15
207
FOX panel talking about 28-3 just feels lazy. All of the key pieces are gone except for BB/Ryan, the game was almost four years ago. So many other things to talk about. It is not a surprise people are looking elsewhere for network coverage during pregame and halftime.
25
8
204
Sports Betting and Golf have many parallels.
One of my favorite is that it is up to the player how difficult he or she makes either game.
For many it is time to consider the tees they play in Sports Betting (and perhaps golf too!)
👇Tap to expand this thread and read more...
6
18
210
One of the best football tweets each season.
Meanwhile, in a universe not too far from our own, here are the current NFL standings if every single one-score game had the opposite result.
295
1K
6K
18
16
204
🇺🇸Coming very soon...
State by state odds pages.
The books you can bet at in your region (including market makers for comparison) on desktop/mobile, for any league and almost every market - including props.
Free for all to use.
27
8
204
If a bettor said something like, “Team X has covered -7 in 4 of the last 5 games” as reasoning for betting Team X -7 this week, they would be ridiculed.
So why is it the norm when talking about props to say, “Player X has gone over 40 yards in 4 of last 5 games” as reasoning?
33
9
205
SF ML comeback last night at +360.
Alternate over 62.5 tonight +300.
Good 24 hours for those watching the
@Covers
Halftime Live.
35
10
203
I’ve seen a lot of crooked gaming practices in 13 years between Dominican, Trinidad, Colombia and Panama. But the first time I have felt awkward/uncomfortable watching was seeing DraftKings sponsor, book, and then collect on the Tyson/Jones event and decision tonight. Brutal.
20
25
194
Went back to Medellín for the first time since just before the pandemic and didn’t tell anyone we were coming.
Thankfully the father in law was able to stay on his feet… 😅
13
2
201
Thread of NFL Week 9 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
25
14
200
Thanks to all of the listeners that tune into
@MitchMossRadio
and
@PaulyHoward
each morning on
@VSiNLive
and took the time to vote. 🍻
Congrats to The People’s Broadcast Excellence Golden Mic Award,
@VSINLive
2021 Guest of the Year,
@adamchernoff
Adam took down future VSIN Hall of Famers w/his first Mitchy. Adam’s plainspoken style & run of NFL success earned him acclaim w/VSIN listeners.
Grab a Molson, Adam🍺
12
3
93
16
2
202
Thanks to all podcasts listeners for helping it continue to climb up the charts!
Nearing the Top 10 for NFL in both USA and Canada and now inside the Top 60 for all sports podcasts in the USA.
Pretty good for a show recorded in a coat closet that costs $6 per month to produce!
25
3
202
Props are moving. Want to hedge? Here is the simple calculation.
Potential return / hedge odds = stake
For example, if you bet $100 on A at +175 and B is now -105
$275 / 1.95 = $141.03
A wins: $175 win - $141.03 loss on B = $33.97
B wins: $133.97 win - $100 loss on A = $33.97
13
11
200
Graham should have never done that, but a game should never end and be decided on a flag and “hit” like that. The fact Heinicke (who’s supposed to be protected by that) immediately started celebrating says all you need to know about that flag being warranted in that spot.
51
24
202
Been going out as the last tee time the last few nights solo and playing the front tees. One drive, two approach shots.
Birdie: 1 point
Par: 0.5 points
Anything else you pick up and go to the next hole.
Much better than 5 hour rounds mid day.
22
2
197
writeups (used to be long ones) or recaps for fun. Before betting anything, use your head, think, read the info, shop for the best price and don’t overstake. If you agree with it - bet it. If you do not, then do not bet it. I’m a guy on a heater, not god. Don’t be stupid. (2/2)
11
1
196
Don’t know how this will finish, but I’m thrilled Wilson is now benched. Get him out of the league.
38
5
197
This is all on McVay. Tough to get more spineless and gutless than what we have seen him call in the 4th quarter. Playing to lose.
40
23
190
Getting to go work for and learn from the team of professionals at
@RASPicks
is an amazing opportunity. As much as I love content, being able to learn and improve as a bettor and handicapper will be invaluable for me in the future. Big pivot, but an exciting challenge ahead.
25
4
188
Ok, a thread to wrap my thoughts on "Reverse Line Movement" so I never have to speak of it again here or on the podcast and can get back to paying attention to the games and betting markets...👇
16
18
189
As bad as the Saints look for starting Hill, the more egregious personnel decision of this game was the Cowboys keeping Zeke in for the 4Q over Pollard.
16
9
185
Saints v Seahawks stays under. Week 7 ends 8-3. Season now 55-17 (76%).
One bet up for Week 8 currently below in the thread.
Week 7 Sunday goes 7-3.
Season is now 54-17 (76%)
NO/SEA u44.5 pending.
34
7
374
15
3
187
When I was 23 I started a "Bush Play Whe" operation with a partner in Tobago. It was a back door lottery which piggy backed the government game - but paid out more.
The things we did to advertise and how US Sportsbook are now advertising is all too familiar...
Thread below...
15
16
183
Well. That’s a new way to lose money betting on football. Never seen someone quit playing mid drive before.
44
11
181
As bad as this game is, Commanders vs Bears next Thursday might be worse.
37
8
183
Post game Dan Campbell said, "this may have been our only shot" to get there in reference to the Super Bowl.
I kind of believe him if Ben Johnson leaves Detroit this week. I think the Lions are at risk of being the Eagles of this season, next season.
Think about Philly the…
44
11
183
🏈 Cleveland -3
IMO, this line can only go one way. CLE is only getting healthier and this looks to be priced assuming the worst. Keenum looked comfortable with Stefanski, and even if it is him, still a good bet, potential to be much higher. PIT being valued like AZ is too much.
9
1
179
17 years ago...
Oddly enough, the only thing I remember (at all) from any of it is playing Mario in the waiting room and going to the Pizza Hut buffet for lunch.
11
0
179
72 hours from kick, and the New Orleans v Cleveland game is shaping up to be quite a lot fun. Sustained winds of 32mph...BUT, it is a SW wind, which means it is forecasted to blow in line with the field and not a crosswind. Conditions are similar to that of BUF NE last season.
27
10
176
At the end of the day, operators are giving bettors the type of content they want to consume.
For years, I found this same information useful and acted on it too. We all have!
But please keep this thread and how misleading they can be in mind next time you see one on your feed.
14
5
176
Welcome to all the new folks following along 👋
If you are enjoying the NFL tweets, you’ll love the daily betting podcast.
The Simple Handicap is published each morning during the season on Apple & Spotify.
📲Apple:
🎵Spotify:
17
6
172
Tough to believe this series wrapped up 12 years ago this week!
Still the greatest show ever on television not named Seinfeld.
28
9
173
Thread of NFL Week 2 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
6
9
175