RT @a_blum7: Excited to present tomorrow at #APSA2021 on some of my dissertation work about how audience beliefs and content preferences af….

RT @deholliday_ucla: @ProfHansNoel @APSAtweets Using conjoints, @aaronrudkin and I find the relative emphasis voters place on state/nationa….

RT @deholliday_ucla: 🚨 New working paper alert! 🚨.How do voters use nationalized policy information to select candidates? @aaronrudkin and….

RT @apsrjournal: Do commodity price shocks cause armed conflicts? In a new letter in #APSRFirstView, @graemedblair, @aaronrudkin, and @Dari….

Okay, so granted the denominator of this equation changed a bit, but Ralph Nader got 600,000 more votes for President than Abraham Lincoln did.

Just in case there's anyone who follows me and doesn't yet have disdain for the entire enterprise of "fact checking", here's a doozy.

Rep Ron Wright died of COVID today. Noteworthy that his final vote before dying was no on impeachment, and also that he reportedly did not get the COVID vaccine in December when it was offered to members of congress for continuity of government purposes.

RT @AmarAmarasingam: 1. BREAKING: The Canadian government has just banned 4 far-right groups as terrorist groups, along with 9 others, most….

RT @saadgulzar: My @AnnualReviews of Political Science article "Who Enters Politics and Why?" is now available online. .

The idea that the mayor of Los Angeles is a "front-line medical worker" and thus should be vaccinated now is such a facially obvious moral affront that it's hard to believe it hasn't provoked mass resignations and a call for legal investigations.

Despite the fact that the Recall Newsom effort is being run by far-right loons, I think it will meet the signature threshold to be voted on. Newsom is truly awful, and CA Dems should unite behind any reasonable alternative (Solis -- my preference, Breed, Schaaf, Kounalakis).

*exhales*.

RT @CriterionDaily: Remembering Michael Apted, whose UP series Andrew Sarris once called “clearly the most remarkable nonfiction film proje….

RT @Criterion: Bill Forsyth's LOCAL HERO (1983), cinematography by Chris Menges ✨.

This sample is off the wall nuts. 37% daily Parler users, 57% Newsmax primary source, 85% self-report vote in 2018, 0% favorables of Biden, 83% economy good/excellent. How did you recruit this sample? Bordering on irresponsible to report, given the rhetoric around polling misses.

My rate for litigation is $20,000/day. Like Rudy Giuliani, I haven't tried a case in federal court in the last 28 years.

If you take a random sample of a population, and, say, 8% are above 6 feet tall, and 25% are younger than 18, it is not true that 8% of those 25% are above 6 feet tall. This is the ecological fallacy.

If X% of a sample is """illegally counted""" (🙄) and Y% is Democratic, it does not stand to reason that precisely or at least X% of the Democratic vote is illegally counted -- you need to know the joint distribution of those two things.

In addition to the obvious legal deficiencies in Trump v. Boockvar (one of many Trump lawsuits to throw out Pennsylvania's election), it should come as no surprise that there's some bad statistical inference at work too.

Last month, it was intervening to kibosh a museum exhibit on Genghis Khan, joint between a French and a Chinese museum: