Agreed.

Piastri did something no driver has been able to do since Hamilton in 2021. Put genuine pressure on Verstappen and force mistakes. Penalties aside today. Oscar on track for the championship.

Time for a bit of F1 politics. Safety car infringement. Really?.

Does the 30% tax rate on super balances above $3m bring forward intergenerational wealth transfer? At 15% tax rate there is an argument to hold onto the money. But at 30% might as well start giving it to the (grand)children to take advantage of the biggest tax break in Australia.

Lights out at Silverstone in 1 hour. Massive day for Australians in global motorsports. Will F1 politics hurt the chances of another Aussie battler or has Mark Webber steeled Oscar for the battle. A win for Piastri and watch the betting markets shift. Go Oscar. Go you good thing.

Trump talking about US interest rates and the Fed just now sounds eerily similar to many Australian economic commentators over the last year.

Does AI represent an increase in the supply of labour or a boost to productivity. Either way, it will help with excess demand for labour and, of course, help measured labour productivity. What labour market impediments are a headwind to AI penetration?.

Excellent and ‘scientific’ analysis of the issue of taxing capital gains on retirement savings. There is such a thing as beautiful tax. This proposal is not one of them.

RT @Peter_F_Ryan: Reserve Bank poised to deliver 0.25pc pt rate cut to 3.85pc but there's uncertainty about more rates relief. @Judo_Bank e….

An Australia long gone.

Post election pontificating. Options to get back into government this decade. The Liberal party need to open talks with the Teals immediately. They should offer one of them the parliamentary leadership to merge. Need to bring the small L liberals back into the coalition.

T.

The bulging belly of probabilities for this federal election is minority government in some form. Seats will go to the wire and could take days to resolve. No early concessions should be on offer.

Will the Teals do a deal, as a team or a few individuals? That seems eminently sensible and may drag the ALP government towards a more centrist disposition. A chances of an ALP majority or a Coalition government sit on the wings of the probability distribution for the election.

Who will govern with the ALP? The great fear of the mainstream is the Greens. Destructive economic ideas and with tribalism at their core, we risk a severe right wing backlash in the future if a Greens/ALP government delivers half of what they promise.

So on the eve of the federal poll it looks like the original historical analysis will hold. Albo will be given a chance. But with such a small majority it is highly unlikely the ALP will rule in their own right. With a late swing to the further right wing parties it will be close.

But the radical shift in global and US politics has altered the electoral environment once again. Australians are highly risk adverse as a group and the radical policy shifts from Trump have given many voters pause in their thinking about the virtues of a centre right government.

Last year saw a universal shift against incumbent governments as inflation and tax burdens destroyed people’s living standards. Australia has had a longer and larger cost of living crisis than just about anywhere. A change of government here should have been a slam dunk.

From a historical perspective, the ALP should retain government, maybe in minority. But overlay the circumstances and there are very good reasons that Australians will feel underwhelmed and disappointed with this government.

Australia kicks governments out. We don’t vote them in. Only once has a first term Australian government been kicked out of office, back in the early 1930s, a difficult time and a bit too popular PM apparently. We give people a go and a chance in this country.