Erik Zimerman
@ZimermanErik
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Congratulations to Wagner forces on the capture of Bakhmut.
A historic and strategic accomplishment, regardless of headlines to the contrary.
It was an epic battle. The Ukrainian defenders were valiant and resourceful. They did not make it easy, and were able to resist
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Tonight Ukraine is under one of the most massive missile barrages yet. As its AD munitions and systems run out, less missiles are needed to hit more things. Drones, cruise & ballistic missiles, as well as glide-bombs and munitions from strategic bombers all have taken a toll.
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We often discuss the all important supply lines, & in the case of
#Russia
, the railways. RU is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops (In NATO, only Italy has a small regiment w 2 railway engineer companies). Given Russia's vast
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#Ukrainian
forces continue to surrender in the Lysychansk area, and some, including who appears to Max (Maksym) Butkevych, co-coordinator of the NGO No Borders Project, are filmed stating that they were abandoned by higher command. Note while I detest abuse of POWs (which we have
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Very interesting battle happening at Vuhledar (Ugledar). The
#Russians
have recently clearly improved their field maneuverability and have been showing a greater preference for envelopment, and encirclement over frontal artillery grind. This has also significantly reduced their
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Now that
#Popasna
has fallen & the
#Siverskyi
Donets has been crossed,
#Russia
is poised to finish the first dramatic encirclement of the war. Any UA troops not falling back to at least the Bakhmut-Siversk line & better the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line will be surrounded.
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Fascinating interview given the gaps in our knowledge currently. Starts with the Grain Deal & ends with Wagner.
Subtitles roughly accurate. As some may recall, I have long argued that the grain deal was very much against Russia's interest, more so if the few commitments to
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A word about the ongoing
#Azovstal
surrender and its effect on the
#Donbass
front. I believe it is no coincidence that the
#Russian
advance (and
#Ukrainian
retreat, if not collapse) has gained speed precisely as the surrender proceeds. Sure part of it is simply
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#Bakhmut
is a cauldron, at least in terms of supply. Hard pressed withdrawal may still be possible through the muddy fields, on foot and by certain vehicles, but normal supply of the garrison is no long possible.
Wagner forces are keeping a tight seal on information on what is
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Ladies and gents, we have our first complete major encirclement in the
#Donbass
. Not only long awaited but very hard fought, the UA regime, desperate to show the western powers that with support, it can in fact win, used (or abused) its troops to hold the salient to the maximum.
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Massive forest fire has broken out south of
#Andriivka
(Kharkhov oblast), due to
#Russian
shelling. This intensity of fire ensures that in this sector, UA forces have been forced south of the Siverskyi donets river. This is an important part of the front, as RU forces have tried
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their general mindset and motivations. Ukrainian agents here likely erred badly, since their government's propaganda so incorrectly portrays Russian troops, their loyalties and motivations.
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I will be updating shortly on the ongoing Ukrainian offensive.
Recently it has involved courageous (if not terribly intelligent) assaults against Russian lines around Zaporizhzhia ending like this.
These BMPS carry squads (6-10 troops) to the combat line, what we see in this
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operation was busted and "flipped" by a successful Russian FSB counter-intelligence operation. The UA intelligence agents were reportedly lured to identify themselves, other trusted sources, and UA anti-aircraft systems details & positions. A defecting pilot for example would
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Successful intelligence enemy penetration operations require a very accurate understanding of your foes, not simply repeating lies which do marvelously for CNN and the masses, let alone believing them yourself.
#UkraineRussianWar
#Russia
#SBU
#FSB
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One of many recent developments, is that it seems
#Russian
forces are fighting around
#Bilohorivka
. Thermal activity in the last hour is heavy. If this is so, RU has crossed the forest & more importantly, the
#Sivereskyi
Donets River &
#Lysychansk
is being outflanked.
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In 2016, Defense Minister Shoigu ordered them back into service, and we have seen two or three of them operate in Ukraine during the current war. Here we see a recently released video of the "Volga" and the Railway Troops bridging capabilities. The armored trains are not meant
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#CNN
's reporting of the (ongoing) surrender of
#Azovstal
obviously parroting
#Kiev
, is so absurd & obviously pathetically bias, that no one could seriously call it journalism. Firstly, the UA armed forces "launched an operation to rescue the defenders". Their term for "surrender"
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Nothing stops the
#Ukrainian
PR machine from winning its war. Now displaying their unique (non-Russian) culture which is blend of Turkish & american idolish hip-hop.
UA forces may not be able to do much to stop the
#Russian
army but thankfully they have some Turkish drones.
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geography, heavy use of artillery, especially rocket artillery (very supply intensive), limited number of military trucks, and relatively sparse road system the army depends on the railways. From their Imperial Tsarist beginnings, through the Soviet era & up until today, the
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Israeli history, as the Mossad famously successfully captured the West's first Mig-21 in 1966 in a similar operation (Operation Diamond). The difference of course is in the quality of execution. This begins by knowing the potential loyalties (& disloyalties) of your foes and
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reasonably need to know many such details in order to fly over Ukrainian territory with a reasonable assurance of not being shot down and killed. This was a creative idea, one I could see coming form the likes of
#Arestovych
or other Ukrainian well read in history, specifically,
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Railway Troops have undergone many changes & been part of various ministries. Their modern iteration begins in 1995 when they are established as an independent Federal Service & strengthened. By 1999 they include 4 railway corps, with 28 railway brigades (+ other elements).
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use these newly captured assets for further offensives and advance, the unique and storied
#Russian
Railway Troops will be instrumental, and have much work ahead of them.
#UkraineWar
#Ukraine
#RussiaUkraineWar
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Rare footage of a Russian combined arms attack, assaulting (apparently successfully) an industrial section of the heavily fortified Donetsk front (geolocated below).
The site lies between Marinka and Krasnohorivka, a front which typically moves very slowly during the war if
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bridges either intentionally blown by retreating UA forces or damaged in the course of battle. This work includes demining, repair & clearing of rubble & obstacles. A newly released video shows us some of this work by the Railway Troops at recently captured Lysychansk. Geolocated
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Lots to update elsewhere, but a word on the salient south of
#Popasna
, that often gets overlooked. Using livemap (typically a bit outdated & w a UA bias). Firstly, this salient is very important for several reasons. The blue are represents a general heavily fortified area of the
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For more details on the misreporting see the quoted thread above. In any event while the misreporting may work on western media, it did not work on the
#Ukrainian
soldiers. They get their news from UA sources of course and they realized the pathetic attempt at subterfuge.
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needed. They also carry ZU-23 twin 153mm cannons for anti-aircraft & direct fire roles. The troops are ready to deploy and engage an enemy when necessary. Here we see another armored train, the "Yenisei" operating in Ukraine. With Russia's recent gains across the Siverskyi Donets
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In 2004, President Putin and then Defense Minister Ivanov re-organize the troops and place them firmly under the Ministry of Defense. There has been several modernization efforts of the troops since then. The US now estimates RU has 10 brigades of Railway Troops assigned to the
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asset, old fashioned armored trains. The US estimates that Russia fields four of these sensational war machines (or military relics depending on perspective), & though some were seen in Chechnya and Georgia, the US believed they were out of service if not dismantled by 2010.
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various (5) Military Districts, comprising about 29,000 troops. While disbanding the force has been considered, their important part in all recent wars (Chechnya, Georgia, and since 2014, Ukraine) has put a stop to that. Russia also utilized the troops to build rail segments that
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This is likely to happen while mainstream reporting continues to laugh at the
#Russian
forces due to failed attempts at crossing the
#Siverskyi
Donets river. As has been common in this war,
#Ukraine
continues to win the PR war, and lose the one actually happening on the ground.
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Speaking of the difficulty of blowing up dams (& bridges on top of them) & whether
#Ukraine
would cause such flooding & havoc on its own settlements, I guess we have the answer.
#Ukrainian
forces attempted to blow up the Vuhlehirske dam on the
#Luhan
/ Lugan river. Geolocated blw
The
#Khakhovka
dam which doubles as the crossing at Kozatske near
#Kherson
is a perfect example.
#Ukraine
would be very wear of unleashing such havoc and destruction in the cities and territory it claims to want to liberate. The war may yet to get to this point where at least
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daily shell consumption. In any event,
#Vuhledar
is an unusual town in this war. The town lies in a very flat (even for Ukraine) part of the country. However, this coal "boom" town is filled with high density buildings, the type that we have seen make capture by RU very difficult
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Now onto Bakhmut. First, a couple of days ago Wagner's head Prigozhin released an interesting video. He shows off large stocks of captured weapons (complains that the higher ups haven't been interested in it), and complains about the artillery munition supply. He jokes that
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bypass Ukraine (private contractors involved as well). Reportedly, they finished a modern 137 (or 122 km) track in 2017 ahead of schedule. Officially the reason was to avoid a 37 km segment that goes through Ukraine (Lugansk). However, much more of it is too close the border,
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for front-line combat but rather, to escort supply trains, repair track & bridges, perform reconnaissance & route patrol, and carry troops & supplies close to the front. They can be configured to carry varying equipment, including tanks and BMPs that can be deployed to fight when
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Precisely as we discussed, the fall of of Ocheretyne is proving critical and may be prove a strategic turning point.
The advance since the initial foothold has been fast indeed (in terms of his war). Most mappers, have been lagging behind the advance which is rare indeed. Most
On the brink of IDF invasion into Rafah. Ukrainian army showing growing signs of collapse.
Quick note on both before I hopefully comment with greater detail.
The strategic dilemma that Israel was bound to face is here. We discussed starting months ago at the outset of the war.
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within artillery range and most importantly so close as to not be useful in a build up for an incursion into Ukraine. This may have been a big part of the reason for constructing the $900 million USD Zhuravka - Millerevo bypass line. The Railway brigades field another surprising
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A word on Ukraine's favorite front, the
#Kharkhov
front. Wanting to first comment on the more critical areas, did not get a chance yet to comment on this upon my return, but may be indicative of a significant change. Until now, as hard as it might be to believe, the official
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So we had a powerful UA counterattack at the flanks in Bakhmut. They hoped of course that it would lead to the encirclement of Bakhmut, but in the worse case, UA command hoped it would release the RU pressure on the main supply roads. In this, it was relatively successful, though
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Brutal, eye opening, and I thought worth sharing. While the popular culture continues to make light of the
#Russian
soldier, here you see him, assaulting entrenched positions. The commander or lead assault soldier is fierce and gallant, before falling.
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Here we have it folks (suggest reading the entire prev thread for context). As I speculated, the
#Ukrainian
forces, with or without permission, withdrew from the
#Svitlodarsk
front, with fortifications that had held for 8 years. The city is in
#Russian
hands. Geolocated here.
of standing his ground firmly, and being encircled, or attempt to reposition or withdraw and see the main front collapse. This is what we are seeing in this case. The UA forces around Svitlodarsk are in no mood for being the protagonists in Azovstal 2.0 and started to withdraw.
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Fixing this railway bridge (along with all other repairs needed across the line) would link the Donetsk rail system which connects eastwards towards Russia & Rostov-on-Don, and the northern system which is supplying the Izium front, through the large rail hub at Kupiansk & north
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& preferred defense areas for UA forces, especially in winter. The small but dense town is highly strategic for several reasons. Among them is that this fortress town is what protects the UA bulge threatening a key railway. Much has been made of the Crimea - Donetsk land bridge
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Interesting development in the
#UkraineRussiaWar
is the reports of the Ukrainian gov't holding back massive amounts of water in its dammed sections of the Dnieper. Water levels are at record highs.
At first thought, this could indicate one of several Ukrainian intents:
1. Hold
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will undoubtedly increase the RU logistics significantly. Many areas along the front will now be close to potential railheads from where RU can project combat strength. The cities in Russia's current sights, Siversk & Bakhmut, only will add to the usefulness of this network as
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Will have to update further after Shabbat, but note that it appears
#Russian
forces are near seizing
#Siversk
& the important junction near
#Zolotarivka
, while they have advanced north from
#Popasna
beyond
#Oleksandropilia
towards
#Viktorivka
. Stonethrow away from
#Vrubivka
.
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river including Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Vrubivka and other important rail hubs (such as Lyman on the north bank), RU forces can greatly ease their logistical burden by bringing up the railheads. This however first entails work by the Railway Troops to repair the railways &
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they are themselves regional road & rail hubs. Russia will be in the new situation of having significant rail logistics south and west of the Siverskyi Donets river & the forest belt, which UA effectively used to delay its advance for so long. In order for RU to effectively
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Update:
The fall of Ukrainian held "Domino", and thus Bakhmut at the hands of the Orchestra, Prigozhin's Wagner PMC forces.
It has been an epic battle, where far too many brave men have fallen. Will the UA command use these last moments to allow their brave to withdraw?
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towards Russia through Vovchansk & the main regional center of Belgorod. Linking these 2 systems together, which themselves are now linked by rail to Crimea, including lines towards the ports of Mariupol & Berdiansk (& further west towards Kherson, that westernmost front),
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Impressive video released of the important battle at Novoselivske. The village is adjacent to Kuzemivka near the borders of Lugansk & Kharkhov oblasts. Through this junction run the main highway & rail lines to the strategic hub of Kupyansk. The village is thus heavily contested
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seen in this war, almost entirely from the UA side), and this can include propaganda footage of them, this does not automatically include all footage of all POWs. There is nothing wrong with filming them to show that they in fact exist & have surrendered, especially for Russia
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#Ukraine
supporters should be happy to know that this self promoting military clerk, 60 yrs old, is leaving without having unnecessarily bothered the troops. By (re-)tweeting from Lvov, 1k km from the front, he didn't get in their way. UA can get its gear back & stop feeding him.
TIME TO DEFEND AMERICA: For all of you who have wished me well over the last four months and prayed for my safety, you will be very happy to know I’ve Set a Course: For Home.
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#Russian
sources have released this striking video purported to be of an S-300 AA battery being destroyed around Kreminna (a front I wish to update about shortly). I however have geolocated it to Lisa Stinka
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all the time, though usually technically incorrect or misguided.
We also hear reports of UA forces finally, reportedly with orders, attempting a complete withdrawal from
#Severodoentsk
to Lysychansk across the river. This may be too little too late, as they incur losses in
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Continuing the operational update. Siversk will be attacked and is difficult to defend. Bakhmut on the other hand is easier to defend for several reasons.
#Bakhmut
is a a larger more sprawling city. It includes rough terrain around it and within it better suited for defense.
Time to address "what next", at least at the short to mid term operation level. Also hope to address the wider war in a following post. The
#Lysychansk
#Severodonetsk
salient was closed. The cities firmly in
#Russian
hands. We were not surprised by these events however much those
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Undoubtedly some very interesting developments here. In the immediate aftermath,
@bellingcat
& its lead
#Russia
investigator
@christogrozev
began damage control regarding the announcement. Mr. Grozev claimed that he was not involved in the operation (as RU sources asserted) but
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criminal, sometimes brutal, and always dishonorable videos - as long as they were featuring Russian POWs. I was mocked at the time for caring about such "niceties" as the rights of POWs under the Geneva conventions. Now, that we mostly only see UA POWs, we hear these complaints
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An update on this rapidly disappearing salient. Though reporting even from good sources was mostly silent on this,
#Russian
forces agreed with the importance of this salient, and are eliminating it as we expected. In the first major instance in the war
#Ukrainian
forces retreated
This previously overlooked southern salient of
#Popasna
, rather than the northern one, was discussed earlier in this thread and in deed has fallen much faster, due to its inherent danger (to UA forces) and greater tactical vulnerability. By withdrawing,
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Ladies and gents, back after a long break due to a lack of time. As luck would have it, it was very bad timing for a break due to the many events quickly unfolding. But here we are, and let us continue. Let me start where I Ieft off:
So first the HIMARS.
3 important threads to get to on subjects I have been trying to address for weeks.
1. The Grain Exports
2. The infamous HIMARS
3. The war in general (been wanting to write that one for a long time!).
Hopefully will get to them shortly. (+ on
#Taiwan
as well)
#UkraineRussiaWar
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that RU has consolidated during this war. We have discussed it at length. However, it is most often overlooked that its most important connection is a railway line that until now passes no more than 1-3 km from the front line in certain places. Here we can see that according to
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An additional note on the supply situation for UA held Bakhmut.
By tomorrow morning, there may no longer be much of a UA-held Bakhmut, but this is relevant to what has been the situation for the last 48 hours or so.
The UA counteroffensive was first to reported to have
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They cannot withdraw too fast, & without holding the line because then the front will collapse into a rout, as the RU forces press from the east. Remains to be seen if we see a collapse or an orderly withdrawal but question first is which route
#Russia
will take?
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DPA, UA sources had the front just a few hundred meters from the railway. The actual front position has varied over these months but in no way is the railway safe. In the vast distances of the Russian and Ukrainian hinterland, what counts for land transportation, especially for
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Losing followers quite rapidly. Many of my readers are folks who knew that western civilization is rapidly collapsing, and that CNN and company are not to be trusted (to put it lightly) regarding Russia and Ukraine. A few thought the same regarding economics and US politics.
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Bravery is contagious, and so is collapse.
#Zekelensky
's lies may have begun the latter.
#Warinukraine
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whose statements are denied and/or ignored wholesale by mainstream media. You can also show them speaking as long as they are not being taunted or abused in any way. Of course, it is not pleasant to be a POW and an implied level coercion exists by merely being in enemy hands, but
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We can now confirm the
#Russian
advance in this critical area. Our very early report proved correct.
The advance makes likely that the
#Wagner
& VDV forces will press from the NW towards the main railway station & grain elevator in a pincer movement along with forces pressing
Early unconfirmed reports of
#Russian
advance in this direction.
Reports indicate advances along Premogi & Oborony streets, and areas cleared up to Krainia st.
(marked areas likely now in RU hands and those possibly in RU hands)
If this is the case, note that only low rise
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#Russian
forces continue to advance in
#Bakhmut
as its supply situation worsens. Wagner PMC forces have reached the main highway (T0504 / H-32) towards Ivanivske & Chasiv Yar. There were several days of heavy fighting in areas around the Mig-17 monument (now destroyed) which
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that may live within it. Its own artificiality requires its ruthlessness. The east Slavic speaking peoples of the Ukraine (whether Russian speaking or Ukrainian speaking) are not facing an existential threat in this war, but the Zelensky regime is. At least in terms of a Russian
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Part II
The second reason for the partial failure of the first RU attack was I believe, not attacking the coal mine to the NE first. Let me summarize.
#Russian
forces including Marines from the Baltic Fleet surged out of Pavlivka and Mykil's'ke and converged on the residential
Very interesting battle happening at Vuhledar (Ugledar). The
#Russians
have recently clearly improved their field maneuverability and have been showing a greater preference for envelopment, and encirclement over frontal artillery grind. This has also significantly reduced their
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victory; a Ukrainian victory does in fact at least locally threaten the Russian language and culture to a significant degree. So, are UA troops withdrawing only to Lysychansk, or out of the salient? Can they hold the oil refinery at the key junction and Siversk? We shall see.
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military logistics (and commodities which are crucial parts of the regional economies) are railways. Without this line fully secure, rail transportation is limited to a very long round about route through the Crimea over the much targeted Kerch Strait Bridge and back north
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this comes with the life of a soldier. I was among the first (the first that I saw) to point out the problems with filming POWs for propaganda purposes under certain conditions early on in the war when mainstream media and social media were having a field day with these often
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set up the encirclement. An advance north from Dolomitne and/or south from Veryshna to either Kodema or Semyhirja would cut off the UA troops. Due to the supply roads in the area, it does not seem feasible for UA forces to stop this small advance over open ground. Thus, we shall
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through Melitopol. This means no real rail connection between Donetsk, Crimea, and even the Azov Sea ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk. The north end of the bulge is held by the heavily entrenched Marinka and Pobjeda. RU forces have pushed steadily on both for the last few weeks
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As our holidays ended, was looking forward to make long overdue important and interesting updates on the war in Ukraine, and some other subjects. Several of which I already have drafts of.
However, this is to be postponed as my fellow fighters across Israel and I, are called
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encirclement well past when their command should have withdrawn them. Much honor is due to the UA defenders of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin stated himself, that the Wagner forces are the best in the world, and the UA units the second best.
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entire northern Horlivka front, and a turn of events much like we expected, after the fall of Troitske as we discussed back on May 20. A final overlooked aspect of this cauldron and its implications involved the railway and Popasna.
would be fatal. Background behind us, note the developments. Thick red lines indicate recent developments. Thin lines one of many potential future ones.
#Troitske
has been captured by RU forces rendering strong UA positions in the east untenable. As I commented on previously, RU
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On the brink of IDF invasion into Rafah. Ukrainian army showing growing signs of collapse.
Quick note on both before I hopefully comment with greater detail.
The strategic dilemma that Israel was bound to face is here. We discussed starting months ago at the outset of the war.
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see if UA continues the emerging trend of evacuating forces when about to be surrounded or reverts back to its usual tactic of not ever doing so. Once this small road is captured, the advance west to cut off the T0513 highway is straightforward enough. This is a major blow to the
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#Ukrainian
security forces, and your tax dollars, at work. The mainstream media will not show all of their broad contributions.
Especially those of the tougher ones who rather than face their very formidable foes in the Donbas front lines, display their prowess in towns & cities
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playing the political game of holding on to territory as long as possible in hopes of the west coming to their aid. It is a political game, detached from the quite serious military one happening in the
#Donbass
, and from the well being of the thousands of men in uniform trying to
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do their duty under this regime, which does not often seem to reciprocate in honor nor in care. Ultimately this comes from ideology, not specifically any malice. The UA gov't believes mostly in its own existence, rather than have any broader view of the people(s) and nation(s)
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The highly fortified & entrenched front line that had held for years was gone, but the UA forces were saved. Though the power plant was reported seized (after UA forces tried to blow the dam and flood the area, thankfully unsuccessfully (for the citizens of the area) by RU, it
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