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Gabe Garfield

@WxGabe

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Meteorologist & storm chaser | Helping chasers find tornadoes | Posts about tornadoes, forecasting, and science | Newsletter: https://t.co/wCRjF5FoUV

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Joined September 2013
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
11 hours
Sky poetry. Supercell near Luther, Oklahoma on March 25, 2015.
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
20 hours
By the way, if you're interested in tornado chasing, you might enjoy my newsletter. It covers chasing tips, recent events, and tornado science. Delivered on the 1st Saturday of every month. Sign up here:.
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
Sources:. National Weather Service. An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak (Roger Edwards & Rich Thompson). 10/10.
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journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract An overview of conditions associated with the Oklahoma–Kansas tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999 is presented, with emphasis on the evolution of environmental and supercellular characteristics...
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
So what can we learn from this outbreak? Here are three thoughts:. 1. When the cap is weak, watch out for storms east of the dryline. 2. Look for subtle boundaries that could initiate storms. 3. Monitor wind shifts that can make wind shear stronger. 9/10.
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
Finally, a subtle "confluence boundary" initiated the first storms of the outbreak. This boundary was located well east of the dryline. Winds east of the boundary came from the southeast, increasing the wind direction shift with height (i.e., this increased shear). 8/10
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
The cap was pretty weak, too. Generally, this is unfavorable because you're likely to get a line or cluster of storms. But in this case, the lift was also weak. So, the storms were ideally-spaced to take advantage of the supercell ingredients. 7/10
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
So, then, what exactly made it unique?. Well, the deep-layer shear was strong but it was not exceptional. And many smaller events have had stronger low-level shear. Maybe less is more?. 6/10
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
And like other big days, mid-level lapse rates were steep -- over 8 degrees Celsius/km. Combined with deep, high-quality moisture, it created strong to extreme instability. This meant that air near the surface was primed to rise explosively -- like a volcanic eruption. 5/10
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
And like May 3rd, those events had rich and deep moisture. That day, dewpoints were in the mid-upper 60s. And the moisture layer was over 100 mb deep. It set the stage for warm downdrafts and strong instability. 4/10
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
But in some ways, those doom prophets weren't wrong. Like future setups, May 3rd had a prominent negatively-tilted trough. That is, the "dip" in the 500 mb height field sloped from northwest to southeast. 6 out of the Top 10 outbreaks have had this kind of trough. 3/10
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
When I began chasing, every big setup was supposed to be "the next May 3rd." . But it never happened. And people who made that call were made fun of. 2/10.
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
21 hours
The May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak was a once-in-a-lifetime event. 10 tornadic storms, 69 tornadoes, 4 of which were violent (F4/5). The setup was so unique, you might dismiss it as a fluke. But it still offers important lessons for future forecasts. 🧵. 1/10
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
1 day
A High Risk was issued for a good part of Arkansas and Missouri. Needless to say, it verified!
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
1 day
The multiple-vortex phase of the powerful Pierce City, Missouri tornado of May 4, 2003. This was just one of several long-track, strong to violent tornadoes that formed that day.
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
2 days
This gnarly tornado tracked across rural parts of northern Oklahoma on May 1, 2008. Moisture was pretty iffy in the morning, with dewpoints only in the 50s. But a surge of >65F dewpoints arrived exactly when storms formed. A classic case of "just in time" moisture!
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
2 days
On November 16, 2015, I chased this massive tornado near Pampa, Texas. Officially, it was rated EF3. But I have little doubt it was capable of much stronger damage.
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
3 days
By the way, if you're interested in tornado chasing, you might enjoy my newsletter. The next one will dig into a science topic. Coming to inboxes on August 2nd!. Sign up here:.
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
3 days
McLean, Texas is another tornado magnet in the Plains. I’ve witnessed three tornadic storms near it. And the views aren't bad, either!. May 16, 2017
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
3 days
RT @wxkylegillett: The dusty Dickinson wedge tornado and double rainbow on June 19th. #NDwx
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@WxGabe
Gabe Garfield
3 days
Rare anticyclonic tornado near Calumet, Oklahoma on May 29, 2004. It was part of a classic High Risk tornado outbreak over the central and southern Plains.
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