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John Couvillon

@WinWithJMC

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JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards) Political strategist/"Numbers guy"

Louisiana
Joined October 2012
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
14 hours
Overall, the Dem/Rep gap INcreased by 169 voters from 170,975 to 171,144. (2/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
14 hours
PENNSYLVANIA INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES, 12/22 (Incl active/inactive split) Split decision - Dem edge among ACTIVE voters dropped from 61,647 to 49,258, while among INactive voters, it increased from 109,229 to 121,886. (1/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
3 days
1,626 voters. There are 10 counties which, since the 2024 election, haven't cleaned their voter rolls Broward Franklin Hendry Holmes Lake Monroe Nassau Taylor Volusia Wakulla (2/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
3 days
FLORIDA INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES, 12/20 (Changes since 12/13) Last week,no major voter file maintenance was performed, and Reps barely outperformed Inds (3,795 to 3,603) in terms of net gains to the voter rolls. Democrats also showed some signs of life,adding (1/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
3 days
the projection is for registered Reps to outnumber registered Dems between 12/27/2025 and 1/3/2026 (In JMC's opinion, with Christmas/New Years up ahead, registration volume will slow down, making the changeover more likely in early 2026) (2/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
3 days
NORTH CAROLINA INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES (12/13-12/20) The Dem/Rep gap narrowed from 1,216 to 653 this past week (Reps outregistered Dems 812-249, while Inds picked up 4,089 voters),although Inds remain "#1." At the current rate the D/R gap has been closing, (1/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
3 days
As an addendum, HD 37 (Calcasieu/Jeff Davis) voted 79-20% for Trump, while HD 60 (Assumption/Iberville) voted 56-43% Trump (but 62-38% for John Bel Edwards).
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
3 days
Late filing developments on the partisan front: HD 37 - Former Sheriff Ivy Woods (who lost his 2023 re-election bid) is running as an Independent against two Republicans HD 60 - Rep Brad Daigle now has both black and white Dem opponents. In a 42% black district.
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
4 days
CANDIDATE QUALIFYING IN LOUISIANA Today is the last day to qualify for special election races (2/7 primary) for SD 3 (NO East/St Bernard) HD 37 (Calcasieu/Jeff Davis) HD 60 (Assumption/Iberville) HD 97 (Orleans) HD 100 (NO East) So far, only HD 60 is a partisan contest.
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
7 days
Note: for those "tuning in late", the point of this is to get a complete view of the vote breakdown between EDay and the EV. Each county has its own level of transparency, which is why I'm chasing these last few counties via public records requests.
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
7 days
(5) Mail and provisionals remain heavily (>70%) Democratic, while Early In Person closer to statewide average (2/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
7 days
NJ 2025 V 2021 BY VOTE TYPE (UPDATE) (1) Just received breakdown from Gloucester County (2) Public requests out for remaining 3 counties (Monmouth/Passaic/Sussex) (3) With this update, Sherrill EDay vote dropped from 52.6 to 52.4% (4) The % voting early went from 36 to 38% (1/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
8 days
UTAH INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES,12/15 (Including active/inactive split) While Reps outregistered Dems, even more registered Ind, causing Rep registration to dip just below 50%.
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
8 days
Overall, the Dem/Rep gap DEcreased by 38 voters from 171,013 to 170,975. (2/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
8 days
PENNSYLVANIA INTERIM VOTER REGISTRATION CHANGES, 12/15 (Incl active/inactive split) Good week for the Republicans (1st in a couple of mos) - Dem edge among ACTIVE voters dropped from 63,400 to 61,647, while among INactive voters, it increased from 107,613 to 109,229. (1/2)
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
10 days
(1)For 30 states with party voter reg (2)Wkly updates for FL/NC/PA/UT incl (3)Over time, Dem voter reg has declined more than Rep reg has. Inds/3rd parties have been prime beneficiary (4)This yr, voter files post 2024 Pres have been cleaned, which is why voter count dropped 1.4M.
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
10 days
NATIONAL VOTER REGISTRATION OVER TIME THREAD
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
10 days
There are 10 counties which, since the 2024 election, haven't cleaned their voter rolls (3/3) Broward Franklin Hendry Holmes Lake Monroe Nassau Taylor Volusia Wakulla
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@WinWithJMC
John Couvillon
10 days
statewide registration since 12/6 is up 11,826 (+5,241 R, +4,814 I, and +1,771 D). Overall, the voter rolls this past week decreased 838 (+2,812 Rep, -117 Ind, and -3,533 Dem) (2/3)
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