See - where I explain this perspective in more detail.

4/ Uncertainty is high. Big revisions are typical, and the data remains is in development. /-0.6ppts revisions have been common – further expected with upcoming changes to the LFS. The OBR is navigating in the fog – it should wait for a signal before changing direction.

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3/The OBR is often optimistic on productivity - but public investment is high, and we have a raft of productivity-enhancing policy down the tracks. If they downgrade, the OBR may have to upgrade again once policies are final and fully assessed.

2/Recent weak data was expected - we are still at the tail end of high inflation disruption. All forecasters expect a turnaround. The BoE in fact revised up its (respected) forecast, now similar to the OBR. Recent outturn data is thus not a reason for the OBR to change.

1/Productivity really matters - strong growth allows us to produce more, collecting extra tax. Today's data still looks weak, seemingly vindicating calls for a costly OBR downgrade - but closer assessment reveals a strong argument for keeping steady.