Mandelbrot
@Wild_Randomness
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Joined October 2022
$BTC The time has come to watch how this unfolds… Is it inning 2 (October 2020) like many have now recently started to proclaim? Or… Is it bottom of inning 9 like we meditated on a month ago. The irony of it all is tee’d up- just be ready to react either way. Big week.
@PlutonicXBT so the week of October 6th puts us at the top of the 4-year cycle… 152 weeks, from bottom of bear to top of bull worked to the week over the prior two cycles so maybe this holds, and when it looks “obvious” that four year cycles are actually still a thing deeper into Q4… is
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$BTC Ahh 1-2 days to reverse… How about half an hour?
$BTC Another one… We’re all numb to this PA at this point; reasonably expecting a reverse bart this in the next day or two… I think that’s a reasonable base case. This time this impulse is right into a cluster of MA’s… daily trend (21 EMA), as well as 200 4HR EMA.
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$BTC Another one… We’re all numb to this PA at this point; reasonably expecting a reverse bart this in the next day or two… I think that’s a reasonable base case. This time this impulse is right into a cluster of MA’s… daily trend (21 EMA), as well as 200 4HR EMA.
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$GLXY $WGMI Rotation heater
$GLXY $WGMI Good rotation— now Galaxy makes sense as the leader again if coins can sustain a pump for longer than 8 hours here.
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$NVDA First tranche of Jan 16 calls filled at 175.30. 195s and 200s Highly speculative but I suspect I’ll have my answer this week. This is either a AI sentiment doom bottom and SPY fakes out below daily trend as an imminent rollover gets delayed, or it’s not… Only need
$NVDA Still no position on this but I’m starting to like the set-up. Mirrors 2024 terribly well. Multi month consolidation, rejection of POC into 2H dec only for it to grind up and put in a 20% move before rolling over. Judging by the TL, this would be definitely be hated
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$SPY This is really going to be tested over the next few weeks. Marginal ATH made (closing basis). Now it’s time to see what kind of downside we get for the rest of December, and if that gets engulfed in Q1… For now we take it one step at a time and keep high cash levels as
For those who have been following along, my base case since the bottom of that 5-6% correction (<6600 SPX) has been a frustrating grind up where a new marginal ATH is made before we see where the bear case takes us. So far so good, but we have stalled over the past few days. I
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The technical and fundamental setup is definitely aligned negatively imo Doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, I’m just keeping a healthy amount of cash flow now and trying to only buy into the best ideas— no leverage. This is forming into a pretty wicked short set-up imo…
@LordPos3idon @BenKizemchuk @fejau_inc The current sideways grind tape I’ve been dissecting—perfectly aligns with Ben’s long-short (LS) degrossing thesis: Institutional hedge funds (long-short equity books, $1.3T gross notional per HFR estimates) are quietly trimming leveraged exposures amid collateral constraints
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$MSTR Disrespecting daily trend? (Another 1B shareholder dilution was in the charts)
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$NVDA Still no position on this but I’m starting to like the set-up. Mirrors 2024 terribly well. Multi month consolidation, rejection of POC into 2H dec only for it to grind up and put in a 20% move before rolling over. Judging by the TL, this would be definitely be hated
$NVDA Alright a little more reassured by this now. You, Cramer, and Kimmel all want $150 NVDA
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$BTC Trying to make it all back in one trade? (Or is this a heavy spot seller that is simultaneously shorting to hedge out their impact?)
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$NVDA Alright a little more reassured by this now. You, Cramer, and Kimmel all want $150 NVDA
$NVDA Feels somewhat similar to the last multi-month consolidation. Weekly trend putting up a fight but ultimately this may end up as a distribution before a mark down. Testing the 50 week trend and subsequently previous ATH’s from 2025 around $150 would be a logical target.
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$NVDA Feels somewhat similar to the last multi-month consolidation. Weekly trend putting up a fight but ultimately this may end up as a distribution before a mark down. Testing the 50 week trend and subsequently previous ATH’s from 2025 around $150 would be a logical target.
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$META Not the prettiest weekly close— while it did show relative strength to the Q’s (and the whole AI complex) on Friday, market-wide beta dragged the name down. This rejection from weekly trend forced me to cut ~60% of the position; this is with the backdrop of it looking
$META Great action, especially on the back of that Oracle earnings flop.
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$SPY Drew this up on Monday… (Final daily trend test before some discovery) Let’s see
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$BTC $KLAR This latest bart was maybe the most predictable yet…
$BTC $KLAR Yeah at times I don’t know if I’m trading digital gold or a Swedish BNPL IPO… Though both assets are taking two very different attempts at being the “future of finance”… They even bottomed on the same day. (Insert phrase about it all being one trade)
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$BTC Kinda has that look— especially if we don’t see continuation in the next hour… 9 in 11 days?…
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$BTC Kinda has that look— especially if we don’t see continuation in the next hour… 9 in 11 days?…
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$LLY This level was worth a shot to rebuy first tranche. Ideally we still get $930-$940 in January to really re-size things.
$LLY Still no rebuy— daily trend didn’t even provide a reaction. Looking to buy ~940 sometime in January. Accidentally manifested the 1T mark acting as resistance.
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$BTC $KLAR Yeah at times I don’t know if I’m trading digital gold or a Swedish BNPL IPO… Though both assets are taking two very different attempts at being the “future of finance”… They even bottomed on the same day. (Insert phrase about it all being one trade)
Quite impressive how tight of a correlation Oracle & Bitcoin have had this year
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