Westpac Economics
@WestpacMacro
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Westpac IQ is our complete source of economic and financial markets commentary.
Australia
Joined April 2015
September Labour Force: Total employment: +6.7k from +63.3k (revised down from +64.9k); unemployment rate: 3.6% from 3.7%; participation rate: 66.7% from 67.0%.
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Cliff Notes: mixed signals keep central banks data dependent https://t.co/bW790kECOI
westpaciq.com.au
Key insights from the week that was.
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Sep Qtr CPI Preview: Childcare represents a significant unknown due to changes in government rebates. https://t.co/LFU3ui6d6u
westpaciq.com.au
Childcare represents a significant unknown due to changes in government rebates.
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The Sep Labour Force reinforced the view that the labour market is less tight. The RBA has signalled it has low tolerance for upside surprises to the inflation outlook. A lot hangs on next week’s CPI release, but there are other risks in the medium term. https://t.co/3OXgWW0qcT
westpaciq.com.au
The September labour force data reinforced the view that the labour market is becoming less tight. The Reserve Bank has signalled that it has low tolerance for upside surprises to the inflation...
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China's outlook: Threats to the economy are being managed, but authorities remain unwilling to skew risks to the upside. https://t.co/hX1U3CQiOl
westpaciq.com.au
Threats to the economy are being managed, but authorities remain unwilling to skew risks to the upside.
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The RBA has little tolerance for any upside surprise from inflation compared to their current forecast profile. As such the risk of further rate hikes from the RBA are higher than we thought even a month or so past.
westpaciq.com.au
Further rate increases not completely off the table, but only if the inflation outlook changes materially from here..
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China’s economy has recently shown evidence of a nascent recovery in confidence and spending. Most notably, the official manufacturing PMI printed an expansionary outcome for the first time in 6mths in Sep, albeit just at 50.2. https://t.co/lh83gJrI6q
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Our latest forecasts for energy, metals, selected softs and our composite indices. https://t.co/0NTDvjtFjE
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Key insights from the week that was. https://t.co/Goe2N5uixI
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Westpac Economics latest thinking on Australia, markets and the global economy. https://t.co/YLwuZ435h2
westpaciq.com.au
Our latest thinking on Australia, markets and the global economy.
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Sep was a volatile month for many commodities but our broad commodities index was flat in the period. Falling thermal coal, gold, copper & nickel were offset by stronger met coal, LNG, aluminium & zinc. https://t.co/IyOJ6ggoPf
westpaciq.com.au
Latest Commodities Outlook from Westpac Economics
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New RBA Governor Michele Bullock has made a steady start, leaving the cash rate on hold in her first meeting in charge. The November meeting will give her more opportunity to stamp her mark. Full story: https://t.co/sKEWjRzQIb
#RBA #economy #WestpacWire
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August CoreLogic home value index: 0.9%mth; 5.1%yr. Revised series points to stronger price momentum. https://t.co/6iFtyHxmUt
westpaciq.com.au
August CoreLogic home value index: 0.9%mth; 5.1%yr. Revised series points to stronger price momentum.
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August 7%mth, –22.9%yr. Tentative but uneven recovery from weak level. https://t.co/q6vsCty7oY
westpaciq.com.au
August 7%mth, –22.9%yr. Tentative but uneven recovery from weak level.
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Total value approvals (ex refi): 2.2%mth, –9.4%yr. WA and SA lead gains. Average loan sizes converge. https://t.co/uVTBUGb4tJ
westpaciq.com.au
Total value approvals (ex refi): 2.2%mth, –9.4%yr. WA and SA lead gains. Average loan sizes converge.
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Governor Bullock has made absolutely minimal changes in her first Statement despite evidence of higher inflation in the September quarter. She is likely to make her mark in November when the staff refreshes their forecasts for growth and inflation. https://t.co/Yhkw1VExND
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Momentum in the Monthly CPI plus stronger crude oil prices and a weaker AUD behind the upwards revision. We are now forecasting the CPI to be 4.3%yr at end 2023 (was 3.9%yr) and the Trimmed Mean at 4.1%yr (was 3.8%yr). https://t.co/AM4Z9XTxhC
westpaciq.com.au
Momentum in the Monthly CPI plus stronger crude oil prices and a weaker AUD behind the upwards revision. We are now forecasting the CPI to be 4.3%yr at end 2023 (was 3.9%yr) and the Trimmed Mean at...
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Westpac's Card Tracker continued to lift over the last 2 wks & is up 6% from its mid-Jun low. Earlier gains were mainly due to higher fuel prices & temporary spending relating to the Women’s World Cup, the rise since mid-Aug has been more evenly spread.
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The Monthly CPI lifted 0.6% in August as expected. Inflation was restrained by various government energy rebates but there is still an upside risk to both our CPI and Trimmed Mean forecasts. https://t.co/LFW1pRHCMm
westpaciq.com.au
The Monthly CPI lifted 0.6% in August as expected. Inflation was restrained by various government energy rebates but there is still an upside risk to both our CPI and Trimmed Mean forecasts.
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Federal budget balance for 2022/23: a surplus of $22.1bn, 0.9% of GDP. That is $17.9bn above the official May forecast, on higher revenue, +$13.9bn, and lower payments, $4.0bn. https://t.co/qI7hTJwTXS
westpaciq.com.au
Federal budget balance for 2022/23: a surplus of $22.1bn, 0.9% of GDP. That is $17.9bn above the official May forecast, on higher revenue, +$13.9bn, and lower payments, $4.0bn.
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