volodymyr dubovyk
@VolodymDubovyk
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Professor of International Relations, Odesa, Ukraine; Senior Fellow, CEPA; Visiting Professor, Fletcher School, Tufts
Joined September 2018
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Olexandra, 2nd year student of international relations at the Donetsk national university (Vinnytsia based) was killed by the Russian missile strike yesterday. What is there to say? This carnage does not stop and it takes old and young alike.
Rest in peace, Sasha.
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Dear journalists around the world. Please stop referring to some mythical Donbas separatists presumably fighting Ukrainian troops, especially now. There would not be a single shot fired in Ukraine without Russia being behind it. Not since 2014, nor now.
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This is Oleksandr Zlochevsky. I met him many times, lecturing at his uni in Vinnyitsia, at other events. Vibrant, active, smart. Could've made a great career. Only graduated last year. He was killed in the War on September 7th, defending his motherland. Memory eternal...
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Right move by Zelensky to address world Jewry in his latest address. He reminds of his own Jewish roots, which is critical in response to the absurd RU call for "denazification" of Ukraine. 1/
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UNICEF has announced today that more than half of Ukraine's children have been displaced. I can't even process this. The scale of this tragedy.
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Father and son who went to this War together. And it was father who on July 13th has carried his son's lifeless body back from under the fire. There is something biblical about this.
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Horrible wording by Guterres. UA and RU "have overcome obstacles and put aside their differences". Differences?! Ukraine was brutally attacked by RU, this isn't "differences". A "beacon of relief in a world" is badly needed, indeed, but how about some relief for the Ukrainians?
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Just wanted to show how real and close the danger is for the people in Ukraine. Odesa, in this case. This house was damaged by a missile strike two months ago, on what I call Odesa's "black Sunday", July 23, 2023. It is two short blocks away from a house where I have lived for
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The total destruction is not just a means to an end, but actually one of the core objectives of this invasion. Destroy as much as you can, be it infrastructure, housing, etc. Make Ukraine poor and needy, its economy undermined for years or decades to come. Impeed its development.
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If someone thinks that now is the right time for pausing weapons supply to Ukr to induce it to peace with Rus, this would be the worst possible outcome of this horrible war. Not only this would throw Ukr under the bus, expose it to future invasions, award Moscow in a major way1/2
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US basically withdraws from the MIGs deal. They say that those jets wouldn’t be that helpful to UA, but their delivery will be high risk and might lead to further escalation. It’s a shame. There will certainly be further escalation without UA having proper defensive capabilities
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I am seeing some people basically blaming Ukrainians for distracting world attention from what is happening in other parts of the volatile post-Soviet space. Look, it isn't out fault that we have been butchered in massive numbers for the last almost seven months. Not to mention1/
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Former Ukrainian tennis players Sergiy Stakhovskii and Alex Dolgopolov joined territorial defense units. Elina Svitolina has launched "Racquets for refugees" fundraising campaign. Everyone is doing what they can. 1/2
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Zelensky's "Without you" statement tonight is a defiant manifesto. Together with the Kharkiv offensive it is a significant point in this War. But also in the evolution of the Ukrainian political nation. The point of no return has passed earlier, no later than after Bucha, but 1/
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One thing has become crystal clear in these last few days. Ukraine turned out to be directly opposite to what one might call a failed state. Under horrendous, unrelenting assault it keeps its core, remains resilient and totally unprepared to give up on its freedom.
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It is amazing to see how Ru forces contunue to hit the forepost of the "Ru world" here in Ukraine - Sviatohirsk lavra monastery. Killing four monks in the process this time. It is almost like they want to make sure than not a single pro-Ru person is left in the country.
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Good point by
@yermolenko_v
just now on CNN. Not only Ukrainians are inspired by leadership of Zelensky. But it is, also, indeed, mutual. Zelensky himself is inspired by the resistance and the spirit of the people. 1/
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Amazing superstar chef Jose Andres is in Ukraine helping people.
People of the World…Hello from Lviv in Ukraine 🇺🇦 Let me introduce you to one of our incredible
@WCKitchen
restaurants here! Chef Mike & his team are cooking amazing meals…delivering multiple times each day to the train station, shelters & more in Lviv! Heroes!
#ChefsForUkraine
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“Russia has bombed at least 3 ... ships carrying goods from Black Sea ports to the rest of the world ... blocking access to Ukraine’s ports, essentially cutting off exports of grain... preventing ... 94 ships ... from reaching the Mediterranean
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This might be useful information to some of you: The Washington Post has lifted its paywall in Russia and Ukraine, giving readers unlimited digital access to our comprehensive coverage.
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I do not know if everyone here is following news from Yerevan in the last few days. But they keep on coming. First, PM Pashinyan said that exclusive dependence on Russia does not serve Armenia's security well anymore. This was long time coming.
Next we learn that Pashinyan's
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So, here is Zelensky lego toy. It's makers have already raised almost 150 thousand dollars to help Ukraine.
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Just like many other Ukrainians, I do not mind Russian or Belarusian dissidents getting their Nobels. But what stresses us is why they should be grouped with Ukrainians? This “regional bloc” view has actually contributed to the drama in Belarus and 1/
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The focus of the media is on the number of Ukrainian refugees that have left the country since the start of the war. And that number stands at around 2 mln people for the moment. But another aspect of this massive exodus is the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs). 1/
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Six explosions have been reported in Odesa. Allegedly, the port facilities were targeted. So much for the "historic" grain deal signed yesterday.
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When Pu today threatens Ukraine, saying that Russia hasn’t "started anything yet" and blames the West saying that “the West wants to fight with us until the last Ukrainian,” adding that “everything is coming to that”, while being visibly angry and fuming, this betrays 1/2
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He mentioned Uman, heart of Jewish Hassidic tradition, which was hit last night too. This deconstructs the narrative of RU fighting some imaginary Nazis in UA. It mobilizes Jewish orgs around the world who must help especially most vulnerable, senior citizens, and rest of UA.
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his lack of confidence. All this theatrics directed at the West exclusively. Ukrainians are well aware by now as to what he is capable of. West still needs, in his opinion, nudging towards not helping Ukraine too much, it is working in his view. Important to prove him wrong. 2/2
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Erdogan says: to get to peace Rus must vacate all occupied Ukrainian lands (including Crimea!) He is not saying the war is somehow a West's fault, like he used to, but puts blame exclusively on Rus, - you started the war, and you have to end it. That's just over last few days.3/3
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He referred to the yesterday's missile strike which has hit sacred grounds of the Babyn Yar in Kyiv, where many hundreds of thousands of Jews were killed by real Nazis. Zelensky’s thesis that now they have been killed again by these strikes, is a strong moral message. 2/
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I teach for 30 years now. Today was 1st day of classes. Used to be called a Day of Knowledge. Not that cheerful this year in Ukraine. Yet I had my first class, online, 43 students have attended from all over the places, scattered around. It was an act of true resilience. We go on
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Shelling Svyatogorsk monastery is, perhaps, a culmination of the last days actions that lead to the complete destruction of any future for the "Rus world" in Ukraine. Back in 2014 people talked of "separatists" getting support there or even storing their weapons at the site. 1/
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Some people have argued with me that Zelenskiy would definitely wear jacket and tie today. And I have said: no way. There is a symbolism in wearing these clothes that he is wearing. It is his trademark. He is kind of distancing himself from those typical politicians with it.
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This is Ukraine herself.
She is maimed, badly injured.
She can hardly move forward.
But there is hope and determination to get through this.
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The pace of the diplomatic unraveling for Rus in the recent days was truly amazing. Many commented on the Samarkand SCO meeting. But what happened there was not limited just to the snubs by Xi and Modi, but also by the post-Soviet Central Asian countries. Kazakhastan has now 1/
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Now, see where we are different. I am a Ukrainian scholar, and I mostly worry these days about my dearest ones, as well for my friends/colleagues' dearest ones not to be killed or harmed in any other way.
So, don't say that we are in the same league, same category of risk. 3/3
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So, I am sitting at one online meeting now. One colleague, non-Eurasian one, says that he has been teaching in Moscow for the last five years, but sadly, "because of the recent events", he had to leave. What recent events do they mean I wonder. 1/
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@yanisvaroufakis
Did Austria have a neighbor that was hell-bent on annihilating it and its people during that time? I must have missed that.
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Young Ukrainian woman with a small child speaks to CNN reporter: "I had plans. No I do not have plans". She speaks for millions of Ukrainians.
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Barbarian invasion. Odesa House of Scientists. July 23, 2023. My heart aches so much. This place was like a second home.
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The ignorance of some people is amazing. Who cares about Russian empire taking Crimea over in 1783? What does it prove, what argument is to be made? Soon after most of Ukraine was within that empire. So was larger chunk of Poland, Baltic states, Moldova and more. 1/
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Unbreakable nation. Ukrainian cardiosurgeons go on with their surgery, relying on generator because Rus missiles have taken down electric power stations. All should help this proud nation to persevere. No time for fatigue.
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So, the Zatoka (cross Dniester) bridge is back in operation, in the meantime, apparently. This old piece of metal is built better than we thought, after all. First, they have introduced one-lane car trafic, and then even the railway trafic is back, allegedly. Pretty amazing.
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@MaxAbrahms
Thanks God that we have someone here who can tell Ukrainians what is good for them.
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I am seeing so many discussing the future Marshall Plan for Ukraine. A noble topic and, yes, this will be most needed. But, correct if I am wrong, I seem to remember that it took defeating Hitler first and then proceeding to Marshall Plan. In this sequence, right?
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But this would also be the capitulation of the West faced by Russian expansionism and militarism, basically an end of the West as we ever knew it. Now, on the contrary, is a time to double down on supporting Ukraine and by this enabling more viable future security of Eurasia.2/2
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The reactions to the War in the West came in waves. From "Ukrainians are going to loose it quickly" to euphoria of "oh, no, they are doing great, they will win this thing" to, again, downbeat of "ooff, Russians are advancing in Donbas, this is bad, let's talk ceasefire now" 1/3
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that we are attacked by the same power that contributed to the creation of those other "hot spots". It is not our fault either that some of the countries that now suffer from violence chose to ally with main aggressor in Eurasia and turn the blind yet to their war on Ukraine 2/
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Russian troops launched missiles on Odesa on the morning of 9 May, during the visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and President of the European Council Charles Michel. Here they are in the bomb shelter together.
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It is very unfortunate that we have to compete for the attention of the international community. None of us will get this undivided attention. The last thing we should do is to play this blame game with regards to each other. 3/3
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"... when Russian soldiers and leaders discovered, to their astonishment, that Ukrainian citizens had no desire to be liberated from the Western yoke and instead fought back ferociously, Russian thinking shifted from colonial to genocidal...
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Looking at the destruction of my city, Odesa, caused by Iranian drones this morning. I see buildings I would walk by dozens if not hundreds of times, on fire. I hate Iran so much right now. Their government, I suppose. They have tons of blood on their hands already, 1/
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the nation moved on. Ukrainian warriors are doing hardest part in this "without you" task. They hardly need an ideologocal justification, - they know what they fight for anyway. The same way is the rest of the country, behind soldiers' backs, contribute to "without you" future2/2
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Much horror in the last 5 months. But some images will remain indelible.
Father discovers his 13 year old son dead, prays over his body for next 2 hours. Boy's sister was with him as they waited for the bus. She is in an intensive care. Kharkiv. Happens there on a daily basis.
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Then a Russian scholar says that he really hopes that academic ties between the U.S. and Russia will sustain, despite, I quote, "current tensions". 2/
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There is a need for a systemic, protracted commitment to Ukraine, which is not based on what happened on this or that segment of the frontline last night or last week. One needs strategic, perspective-based, forward-looking approach instead. 3/3
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Sobering report by
@RUSI_org
"The most glaring deficiency is the inability of Ukraine’s partners to appreciate the lead times between decisions and their desired effects. This deficiency is being demonstrated at great cost in Ukraine’s current offensive."
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apparently proceeded with detaining Rus trucks with sanctioned goods. Tokaev has been playing this game for a while now, so this is a new act. Note how many countries voted with Rus in UN on blocking Zelensky's virtual address. Seven (1), including Russia. And now 2/
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Missile hit in Odesa two short blocks away from where my Mom is. I can't even...
This is our life now.
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The Kirby’s press-conference was extremely weak, confusing and self-conflicting. The question on why one can supply Javelins but not planes was left unanswered. And the bigger question - why was this seen as a viable plan few days ago and not now - is also left without answer.
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This is Oleksandr's photo of me lecturing in his class... This is so hard. Loosing young guys like him. Lives interrupted by this Godawful war...
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CNN says that Zelenskiy is going to address the joint session of the Congress, and it is an honor. They forget that this is an honor for the Congress. And I am not joking.
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In a lieu of today's strikes on the port of Odesa which took place less than 24 hours since the "grain deal" was signed in Istanbul it is important to calm down and think straight, even as we are incensed and full of understandable emotions. Hard but we should try. 1/
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Graphic illustration of the word "rout". Kharkiv region.
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If explosions today at Saki airfield in Crimea is a result of Ukrainian long-distance strike, as it seems, it is a significant moment.Maybe not a game-changer or a turning point as such, - we saw in this war that ups follow downs and the sides reclaim initiative from each other1/
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This swinging pendulum of emotions is not helping. Even less so it can be a basis for the policy. This is a big, hard war. There will naturally be ups and downs. It has been on for more than three months already, and may rage for much longer, as we suspect. 2/3
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Merkel is right: Rus is necessary for the European peace. For it to be a productive element of this peace Rus needs to be defeated, fundamentally cleansed and reformed. If this does not happen the only true relation of Rus to the European peace will remain it being a main threat.
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There always was and still is the way out of this: this is for RU to cease its aggression.
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Seeing how the West is now impressed by Kharkiv offensive calls for both satisfaction but also disbelief. Was this a first time when Ukr troops proved that they can fight well? Far from it. Didn't they expel enemy from Kyiv and Cherhigiv region? 1/
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Ah, we, here in Ukraine, actually thought long war is fun. It is amazing how people like him assume they know better, like Ukrainians have no brains, no will to make decisions for themselves. Or they should not be allowed to make one. Pretending that he cares as he says this.
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Same thing about 1954 and Khrushev. It was not a mistake, but an administrative decision within former USSR. IRRELEVANT. What matters: there were countless treaties signed by Rus where it recognized the borders of Ukraine. That is the only thing that matters, not 1783 or 1954.2/2
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Liberation of Kherson is a glorious day for Ukraine. It also presents a dangerous juncture point, difficult dilemma for Kyiv and its allies. Obviously, Russians withdrawn from Kherson because they could not hold it anymore. But also it looks like their pitch now would be that 1/
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In hardest days of the war "Nova Poshta" (New Post/Mail) has worked, never stopping for a minute. It has delivered despite most adverse circumstances. Millions of Ukrainians depend on it as never before. The "Nova Poshta" workers have become those of many unsung heroes of the
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Big message to the Western media: stop hyping news re: Kherson being taken. Yes, it is a loss. But it was sadly expected. Also, that the only relatively big Ukrainian city that RU has to show for a week of being in Ukraine. This only underscores how very wrong it goes for them.
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Ukraine's partners were well aware that neither Normandy format nor Minsk framework would have been able to bring peace to Donbas in 2014-2022. Yet they pursued those tracks in the absence of readiness to apply more pressure on Russia and support Ukraine more decisively. This was
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Currently there is a bottomless pit of good will towards Ukraine in the world. It is a real tsunami of sympathy and respect. It is important to keep resisting, stand firm and then capitalize on this good will in rebuilding the country and moving forward in the coming years.
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If not for that spirit there would hardly be such a courage on his part. The rallying around the flag and nation's war time leader is absolutely unprecedented. Never in Ukrainian modern history we had such a closeness between a leader and the people. Not even close.
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So, apparently, all hope for winning them culturally, building a base for pro-Russian Ukraine in the future are now abandoned. Only brutal force counts, no elements of soft power left.
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@ChristopherJM
Oh no, I can't believe this. I knew him. He worked with me giving an interview at the 2021 "Sea Breeze" exercise. Such a cheerful, great man. So sorry to hear this. And these four children...
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Except that, of course, they do not care about Ukraine. They only care about their dogmatic, tired theoretical cliches. According to them the ultimate expression of caring about Ukraine would mean placing it firmly within Russian sphere of control.
.
@stephenWalt
: If we care about Ukraine, our immediate goal should be to end the war before even more damage is done.
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Here they are boasting of occupied Kherson region helping them to the record numbers of grain harvest. It should be noted that in 1932-33 Moscow was selling record numbers of grain on the world markets while millions of Ukrainians were starved to death. Some things never change.
Russia not even trying to conceal their imperialistic theft of Ukrainian natural resources as they boast that the "Kherson region will help Russia to collect a record grain harvest in 2022".
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This is obviously a major inflection point for Moscow. The danger of an escalation has never been higher. Be it massive mobilization, martial law or using a tactical nuclear weapon or something else. We all hope that this would not come to this. Moreover, 1/
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and tragedy of Rus aggression in Ukraine. If anything it reinforces today’s birthday guy’s (and who that may be) view that all these lands and people are part of a single space. This is wrong and harmful on so many accounts. If anything, centuries of Ukrainian history were 2/
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full of trying to get away from Rus. Please, see these people in their own merits. As distinct entities that do not require such patronizing and misleading squeezing in one single case. 3/3.
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Seeing Martin Scorsese praising great Ukrainian film director Oleksandr Dovzhenko moments ago here at the Carnegie Hall is something else.
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This is quite something:
"Russia may not have technically violated the deal, since it did not pledge to avoid attacking the parts of the Ukrainian ports that are not directly used for the grain exports, according to a senior U.N. official."
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@mehdirhasan
There was no realistic, feasible "peace deal" for Ukraine to accept. Not last year, not now. Ever.
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In the meantime Russian player Daniil Medvedev could be banned from Wimbledon unless he condemns Putin. Also, he was just defeated at the prestigious Indian Wells tournament by Gael Monfils ... who is Svitolina's husband. 2/2
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That would be a significant development, meaningful for my hometown of Odesa, all of Ukraine, if it comes through, indeed.
⚡️ German Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht arrived in Odesa with an unannounced visit and promised that Kyiv will receive state-of-the-art air defense systems IRIS-Т in the coming days.
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Hear people describe conditions in Mariupol as medieval. Vast understatement. Back then people had some access to basic amenities, like water and food, some medical assistance even. They didn't endure powerful bombs falling on their heads or had to bury their dead in mass graves.
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It is my great privilege to be joining the team of this outstanding institution.
We are thrilled to announce
@VolodymDubovyk
as a new CEPA Senior Fellow. Volodymyr is an Associate Professor at the Odesa I. Mechnikov National University and has expertise in US-Ukraine relations, Black Sea regional security, and Ukrainian foreign policy. Welcome!
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Various experts have guessed prior to this invasion that RU might instead carry out a blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports. Well, there are both an invasion and a blockade in place now. Yes, while all eyes are on the invasion, there is also a blockade. 1/
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Naturally, report by "Amnesty Int" blaming Ukr military for placing themselves near civilian facilities is upsetting to us. 1) Where you want them to be? Out in the open field where they will be annihilated by Rus fire, opening path for the horrific occupation of whole country 1/
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So, Zelensky talked to the members of U.S. Congress today. Apparently, his talk has been well received. He has thanked U.S. for ongoing support. But he indicated that more can be done to help Ukraine and punish Russia. 1/
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@JDVance1
1. Don’t know why would you begin this tweet by “sorry”, - you said much worse things.
2. A lot of “anti-Russia obsession” has to do with what Russia does, which culminated in Ukraine now.
3. It is in fact MAGA which is obsessed about 2016 (and 2019) and hate Ukraine guts.
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Macron has brought us to the square one, to where this current crisis started. UA didn't want to do Minsk Moscow style and wished to retain NATO membership perspective. Putin felt that UA is slipping away and so he started this escalation. Now with his grandiose bold diplomacy 1/
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It showed how significant it was in trying to spread the "Rus world". Now it is seen as a legitimate target for military strike. Millions of the possible adherents of the "Rus. world", pro-Rus citizens live exactly in places pummeled by Russian military in the last two weeks. 2/
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Awful. Retaliatory?! This is a daily/nightly occurrence.
Dear
@CNN
! What you describe as “retaliatory drone strike”, is everyday reality of
#Russia
’s barbaric war on
#Ukraine
. Don’t validate the aggression implying that they merely react! It’s simply untrue!
#TruthMatters
#StandWithUkraine
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