Vas | Toronto Real Estate
@VasCityEstates
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I heard that the Bank of Canada is getting its real estate license.
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Daughter has ear infection.
Doc prescribes amoxicillin, out of stock in closest pharmacies. Called 20+ pharmacies in the GTA all out of stock.
Found some 2 hours outside of the city, driving there tomorrow.
Banana republic.
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From a source that works in mortgage delinquencies for a big bank, a big portion of inbound inquires looking for solutions/relief are coming in between midnight and 4am. We have no idea what people are going through right now.
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It pays handsomely to wait for prices to go down.
Even at higher rates your payment stays the same, except you owe hundreds of thousands less on you mortgage.
Are realtors still pushing the narrative that it's better to buy at lower rates regardless of price?
🤡
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Starting the year with a bang, small detached in Waterloo now 1.22M. Words no longer required to describe this. 100% gain since 2019
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My family doctor is closing her practice because it's no longer a viable business.
The new normal.
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The latest re-listing trend is infuriating.
Example:
Lists for 899k, offer night flops
terminate/re-list
Asking 1.1M, offers any time
Submit offer at ask
Oh, that's too low, we are expecting 1.3M
Oh ok, 🤡
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I recently made a youtube video that condo maint fees are going to skyrocket.
From a client: 12% increase coming in her building.
Just found out about 15% increase on another one.
This is the beginning of condo repricing in the GTA.
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Spoke to a large GTA Broker of Record with multiple office locations today:
More agents have resigned/quit in the last 4 weeks than they typically see in an entire year.
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I made an offer this week that was at 78% of asking price.
They signed back. I didn't accept the counter. 2 months ago they wouldn't have even acknowledged offer receipt.
What a time to be alive.
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Imagine the 100+ people that went through this home completely oblivious that they never had a chance.
What a waste of time for everyone involved.
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So are we going to talk about how someone making 65k can get a 1.2M mortgage by paying a broker 1%?
@BoobalanSamina5
@ronmortgageguy
@therobcampbell
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Canadian banks now offering extended amortizations on mortgages if you are facing 'financial hardship'.
The Canadian home owner bailout at all costs.
Is this going to set a price floor?
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Most attractive city in Canada?
50x130 duplex lots for $550k
Building permits – 8 months
Housing affordability is near record highs.
No land transfer tax
Momentum from oil prices increasing
Welcome to Calgary
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Remember the prominent bank of mom & dad via HELOC?
Most of these were left as variable loans and the squeeze is officially on.
There will be surplus inventory coming to the market because of this.
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Another day, another precon subdivision up in flames.
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The illegal basement apartment.
GTA's most prized home feature.
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@audrawilliams
@VesnaOrest
Can a marketing guru explain to me what the end goal is with this messaging?
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PSA for anyone mortgage shopping right now. This caught me by surprise.
TD Bank's mortgage prime rate is 7.35% while every other bank is 7.20%
When TD quotes you Prime - 1.1% it's 6.25%
When CIBC quotes you Prime - 1.0% it's 6.20%
TD's quote looks better with a higher
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Someone in Brampton saw my Waterloo tweet.
Waterloo: ~100% increase in 2 years?
Brampton: Hold my beer!
Here is ~50% Increase in 6 months. (Credit for finding this: user Lavaris1 on RFD)
@PierrePoilievre
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If you had to guess, what % of people wouldn't be able to have an adequate retirement if it wasn't for their home being their primary RRSP.
90%+?
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One of the biggest risks to the GTA real estate market is the US loosening up their immigration standards.
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How long until this is normal in Toronto?
Under/over within the next 8 years?
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The Canadian government is likely to do something drastic as things are spiraling out of control in housing.
The US is signaling aggressive rate hikes in the immediate future, basis for why the market took a dive yesterday.
Volatility in 2022 > 2021 & 2020 combined
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Friend who works for a GTA private lender told me they are seeing a material uptick in delinquencies at the bottom tier of their portfolio. These are all double digit interest rate/low credit score borrowers with homes.
@daniel_foch
Engage private lender power of sale search.
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Markham, ON where townhouses are scratching at $2M
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The biggest scam in Ontario: renting parts of your home equipment. Over the years it has become acceptable to rent hot water tanks, furnaces, and A/C's.
Where else is this 'normal'?
Want out of the ponzi? Get punished with a marked up buy out.
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Listing agents following up for feedback is not desperation.
They are just back to doing their job now.
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No GST (5%) on "Materials and Services" for new rental apartments.
If I understand correctly this applies to ~20% of total costs of the construction of a new unit. In other words this announcement has a net impact of 1% reduction on costs?
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Current map of active power of sale listings. There could be more, this is based on a simple search criteria.
Posting here as a baseline to compare to in a month from now.
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For the first time in my life I am about to buy a GIC.
Short term
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For those of you who have tried hard drugs, my understanding is that the highs are incredible.
How do they compare to listing a detached home in Durham?
I bet it pales in comparison.
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Here is how accurate the Housesigma estimator is:
Preface: I am all for algo/tech, but let's be very clear on its limitations.
What the algo said: $723k
What I bought for: $630
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March 2022 was our first rate hike.
General rule of thumb is that it takes 18 months for rate hikes to work their way through in real estate.
In early September 2023 everyone actively trading in real estate noticed that buyers disappeared.
Like clockwork.
Market will be
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“Canada has fallen so far behind the U.S. in recent years that output per capita in Ontario, Canada’s fifth-richest province, is now comparable with that of Alabama, America’s fourth-poorest state”
^ our government(s) hard at work, the end result
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Resale condos in downtown on a bit of a landslide.
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Reverting to the mean:
Durham -23%
York -16%
Toronto -9%
Peel -13%
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Attended a realtor event last night, some of Toronto's highest producing realtors in attendance (verified via TRREB stats, not social media followings).
Majority drove 'low key' cars, no exotics, no opulence.
Social media would have you believe otherwise.
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If the anecdotes about Brampton are true (fraud), is this the first area of the GTA to fall apart first?
No bridge loans.
Inflation Ripping.
Lots of speculators.
Presumably high amount of fraud
@ronmortgageguy
@sm_cmc
@DanielVyner
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How to create panic on twitter.
Find a big price drop.
Post HouseSigma (don't sue me bro)
Don't provide context.
1.07M - 5 days ago
1.7M - 8 days ago
Wizardry
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In the GTA we turn over ~4% of the residential housing stock every year.
In slow years we sell ~45% of new listings
In boom years we sell ~74% of new listings
You need less than 5% of home owners to be disstressed who had no intention to transact to materially change the market
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How many HELOCs that were pulled as low variable interest 'downpayment' gifts by those 50+ have now turned into 25 year amortized mortgages?
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Every time I return to Toronto after being in the US or abroad I count my blessings.
We have it really good despite our issues.
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The illusion of having more disposable income during WFH/lack of travel due to covid will hit real hard when things return to 'normal'.
Transportation 60%+
Food feels like it's double
Things are whack when an 80k Tesla makes more financial sense than paying $2/L for gas
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90%+ of files are for people that have bought within the last 4 years.
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If you've ever wondered what 'affordable housing' means in the GTA, it means going back to 2006 pricing.
Good luck everyone!
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2024 Spring Market trend unfolding:
Aggressive underpricing of listings, dozens of offers, selling at or below recent comps.
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Current Situation: Young couple, combined income of ~$500k, own 2 condos in downtown Toronto, credit scores over 780, non smokers, no pets.
Looking to move to York region to rent before buying. Condo in Markham, offered over asking, full rent for a year up front...
Landlord is
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GTA RE Market is all over the place right now.
We can cherry pick data to support just about any 'trend'.
Premature to derive any definitive direction imo.
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Markham townhouse sells higher than pandemic peak.
Head scratcher 🧐
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The 2022 questions all RE investors are asking themselves right now:
Do I sell some properties to un-lever/take profit and preserve my portfolio in the event of a downturn?
or
Do downturns exist in the GTA?
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These types of sales are becoming relatively frequent.
Footings/foundations poured and then up for sale. Are lenders pulling funding commitments for construction loans or are sellers cutting losses while they are ahead?
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GTA Buyers right now:
(disheveled look on point too from 18 months of hell)
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Last few weeks of bidding wars I've been outbid by sizeable margins.
Has everyone lost their mind?
Parts of Markham now at peak pricing.
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Quick observation on power of sale listings
The ones I've seen are by people who had solid equity in their homes (were bought years back), and then HELOC'ed the property with non A lenders. That's who is in trouble now
Those who bought the peak aren't the first go, apparently
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Anyone interested in living in Fiddlesticks, Ontario?
The pleasure is all theirs
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If you want to feel good about yourself tonight there are a number of people right now willing to renew a private mortgage at 12% while being underwater on their home.
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~$2,000 per square foot for pre cons in 2023.
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Twitter RE: "Market is slowing, I told you"
Reality: instead of 100 showings and 45 offers, we are at 40 showings and 7 offers.
Pandemonium
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My car got hit in a parking lot, luckily a few witnesses saw it happen and took pics of the guy/his plate as he took off.
Do I even bother reporting to the police or am I wasting 1-2 hours when they won't even go after him?
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The financial sophistication to pull off a deal like this would leave Buffet impressed.
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GTA Market getting crushed going into winter.
First leg down in prices happened in the summer of '23, looks like the 2nd leg down is happening right now.
Seasonally prices stay flat from Oct - Nov, we just saw a 3.5% decrease in prices month over month.
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Power of Sales have quietly doubled in the last 9 months.
Current map of active power of sale listings. There could be more, this is based on a simple search criteria.
Posting here as a baseline to compare to in a month from now.
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Friend is getting married next year, told me venues are anywhere from 200-350/plate
That’s insanity.
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The biggest impact of covid on real estate?
Construction costs, there was a time not that long ago where you could build a custom home for $250 - $350 PSF + a typical 10% overrun.
Gone forever. Welcome $480 PSF
@frankfortreport
@daniel_foch
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On the topic of FOMO, it happens to the best of us.
Short thread on how I almost lost my shirt in Dec '21.
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Saw a deal where a buyer bought a bigger property with condition to sell his house. Needs XXX to close on new purchase.
Can't sell at XXX, seller of bigger home is now buying buyer's house at old XXX market price for the deal to go through.
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Durham most resilient, held out longest from peak, starting to drop fast last couple of weeks.
York hit hard and fast, appears to be searching for price floor, offers up in last week.
Toronto Detached & Condos lagging, but slowly dropping in activity.
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We are hitting peak fomo again.
1.4M for a semi on a busy road in east york
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(1/4) Spring market cancelled. Prices flat, a repeat of 2023 underway with prices grinding down already.
Detached down, condos outside of the core up, result = flat prices.
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Some of the losses in the precon space on projects taking occupancy now are like nothing you've seen before.
Just breaking even is 5+ years from today (conservative), with negative cashflows until then.
Bleed for years or crystalize a loss today, that is the question.
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Having to regularly commute within the GTA or an occasional punch to the face?
I know what I am choosing.
This place is unbearable to get around in.
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Uncomfortable truth:
While most things you read on the internet about being a landlord in the GTA are negative (selection bias)
Most landlords are collecting their rent cheques quietly every month and you will never hear from them.
Few understand.
#landlord
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The point of this thread is that even if you are even keeled you too can be a victim of emotion in a roaring market.
We have to be more forgiving and not as critical of people who make mistakes. No one is immune.
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I've seen some poorly managed condos, but $1.75 in the reserve. No words.
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Failed offer nights in todays market = We've reached the top for many areas around the GTA.
Sideways trading from now on most likely.
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Is it a fair assumption that more than 50% of high end cars/trucks/SUVs in the GTA have been paid for by profits from RE?
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Here is the first 'distressed' precon sale I've seen recently.
Bought for 731k, asking 670k.
Except this person got crushed when they signed the dotted line, even after a loss, this isn't a 'deal' in today's market.
Feel for the seller.
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Interesting Case Study on Toronto Multi family in High Park.
Lot bought 2010, construction starts in 2014.
Refi with CMHC during covid for 4.9M after build completion.
Sold in 2023 for $7.3M
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4 listings I showed to different clients, 3/4 offer nights flopped 0-1 offers.
1 got a bully offer over the long weekend (veteran move).
Things are changing
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The rate hike news is oversold imo. 25bps is immaterial.
RE in general was facing some massive headwinds with the last few months being the exception.
What we are about to go through is directly correlated to the impact of duration (higher rates for longer)
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Last night's twitter space
@AbeEvreniadis
brought up a great point. All these inflation adjustments in salary comps giving us the false pretense we will be ok.
Real inflation at 10%+
Salary bump 10%, net of tax it's 5%.
🤡
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One thing is for mortgages to go up 30%+, it's another for rents to do the same.
Owners have a vested interest in keeping the property, tenants have a broken system that guarantees them 8-12 months of rent free living.
Will these high rents result in more LTB backlogs?
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Good morning to everyone except buyers who said downtown condos were expensive in '21, dragged their feet and now have a massive sense of urgency to act.
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People buy towns for 800k-900k at peak.
Can't make payments, walk away.
Builder re-sells same towns for under 500k and will not sue people who walked away.
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The September Median Price increase of ~3% is misleading.
In the GTA in September we sold 52% more detached homes than condos, in August we sold only 23% more detached homes than condos.
Sales mix once again skewing reality. Prices still grinding down despite median being up.
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If I was a first time home buyer in Toronto I would
A: Buy a large 1+1 in a "good" DT airbnb building & pull in 12k-15k/year in short term rental when I am away/vacation/weekends.
or
B: Buy a bungalow, live in the basement, rent the upstairs and pull in $2,700/month.
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For the many that have been champing at the bit for a correction, fast forward to a few years from now:
How many will have capitalized on the situation and how many still won't have a pot to piss in?
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