Founder/CEO Vailshire Capital Management LLC
#RIA
& Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund (2013) | Physician (IR/DR) | MBA (Finance) | Not the views of Vailshire!
A gentle reminder that nothing I post should be construed as trading or investment advice, nor does it represent the views of Vailshire Capital Management.
The plan:
Step 1: Operation Choke Point
Step 2: Devastate regional banks, venture capital, stablecoins, and crypto without any chance of bail outs
Step 3: Chastise the above-mentioned entities for being too risky for retail investors and make examples of them
Step 4:…
Options:
1. Sell
#bitcoin
at a juicy profit; pay taxes; enjoy the gains; deeply regret selling 5+ years later; or,
2. Hold
#bitcoin
forever; borrow against it as needed (at low loan-to-value ratios); pay no taxes; regret nothing.
Hmm...
(Not individual investment advice.)
"If your time horizon is one month, Bitcoin looks like a volatile asset. If your time horizon is 10 years, it looks like a risk-off store of value."
-
@saylor
I couldn't agree more.
#UST
is backed by Luna.
#Luna
is backed by nothing.
Luna's founders and close associates (think: Cantillon Effect) are backed by
#bitcoin
, which they purchased with Luna they printed out of thin air, paid for by speculators in Luna... who may very well get rekt.
Be careful.
This won't make be popular, but...
The increasing discussion of
#Bitcoin
as a better religion and/or as God/god or humanity's spiritual savior is extremely troubling to me.
There, I said it.
#Bitcoin
is a simply a tool, not something to be worshipped.
Among other things, it…
"It's not digital currency. It's digital property.... The compelling use case is capital preservation for everyone in the world.... Medium of exchange is only worth a trillion dollars. Store of value is worth a hundred trillion dollars.
#Bitcoin
is going to be embraced as…
There will likely not be another “crypto” cycle.
Regulation is coming.
When it does, >95% of existing “crypto” will be forced to choose between admitting they are a security, hiding underground, or ceasing to exist.
They’ll be recognized simply as crappy software companies.
You panic sell
#bitcoin
because it's a speculative trade.
I calmly buy
#bitcoin
because it is the greatest long-term savings vehicle humanity has ever seen.
We are not the same.
Fidelity has been patiently and publicly supporting
#Bitcoin
for approximately a decade.
Their long-suffering is finally starting to get rewarded.
#Respect
The longer you save in US dollars, the more expensive life gets.
The longer you save in
#bitcoin
, the cheaper life gets.
Inflation vs disinflation.
Unlimited monetary supply vs true monetary scarcity.
You can argue all you want, but it's just math.
I’m away from my wife and kids, spending time with my dad (who is in hospice) again today.
Contemplating his remarkable life and transformation prior to knowing Jesus, and afterwards. The change in his persona was nothing short of miraculous.
Death comes for us all. It is a…
You don’t actually own your house or your land, you are renting them from the government.
If you don’t believe me, try not paying your property taxes.
Unlike a house or land,
#bitcoin
in cold storage is a true bearer asset.
It is decentralized and cryptographically-secure…
I'm increasingly convinced that government regulatory agencies exist primarily to make life hard for honest people and drive small business owners out of business.
I generally hate politics and rarely even vote these days, but I have to admit,
@VivekGRamaswamy
is actually growing on me.
He is seemingly intelligent, pragmatic, and based.
Elephant in the room:
The 2021
#bitcoin
bull market was an anomaly.
People who think it was normal and/or expected to peak at $69k will almost certainly underestimate the 2025
#bitcoin
bull market.
🐘
It’s crazy that crypto exchanges were able to create tokens out of nothing and exchange them for
#Bitcoin
and other stuff.
It’s crazy that the US government is able to create dollars out of nothing and exchange them for
#oil
and other stuff.
It’s a good business until the…
I wore my
#Bitcoin
shirt around Vegas all day and didn’t get a single comment, high five, hand shake, thumbs up, or any acknowledgment whatsoever.
We’re still very early.
“No, seriously. My FTX customers thought they were buying bitcoin on my exchange. But, in reality, they were simply paying for my new home in the Bahamas.”
I’m going under the knife and general anesthesia for the first time tomorrow for nasal valve collapse. 👃
Prayers are appreciated.
Regardless of the outcome, God is good and I am grateful.
See you on the other side. 💪
OPINION: In general, if you first bought
#bitcoin
in 2010-11, and don't have at least 5,000 bitcoin in cold storage, you screwed something up.
Likewise:
2012-13: Should still have 1,000+
2014-17: 10-100+
2018-21: 1-10+
2022-present: 0.1-1+
Most people "took profits" too soon…
Because of my bearish macro views over the past several months, I’ve kept a chunk of my savings in cash, instead of buying more
#bitcoin
.
Over the next two weeks, I’ll be selling USD and buying bitcoin, because I think $btc is exceptionally cheap.
Just thought you should know.
Pretty cool to find out that my fund (Vailshire Partners LP) is the best performing hedge fund (net of fees) in the world so far in 2024, according to Preqin data.
Shout out to
#bitcoin
for being the primary growth engine beneath the hood. 🔥
(This is not a solicitation to…
Speaking as a small business owner... and factoring in blood, sweat, tears, and time... I am utterly convinced that simply buying and holding
#bitcoin
is the world's greatest side hustle.
I greatly appreciate all of the kind responses, DMs, and email regarding my dad.
I extremely grateful for your support and love. 🧡
Today, I believe that my dad is with Jesus in paradise, after several rough years fighting Alzheimers.
Just three weeks of a (healthy) drawdown, and many folks including (*sigh*) some of my own clients are back in panic mode.
Some gentle reminders:
1. Asset prices--including
#bitcoin
--rise from oversold levels and fall from overbought levels.
2. Bitcoin was overbought as the…
What I'm watching...
Nearly 25% of US businesses are "zombie companies."
That is, they are unable to even afford the interest payments on their debt.
The previous record for zombies was 17%, set back in 2001.
This will not end well. 👀
(h/t
@Stansberry
for the great chart)
Where is it written that
#bitcoin
must decline further because of deepening recessionary conditions?
What if intelligent people around the world flee into Bitcoin savings technology, because they finally understand that it is the world's best money and store of purchasing power?
I’m so embarrassed by my tradfi colleagues who continue to make fun of
#Bitcoin
. It was reasonable to do so 5+ years ago, but looks ridiculous today.
It feels exactly the same to me as those in tradfi who made fun of Amazon and its investors in the early 2000s.
Luddites.…
In 2000, Blockbuster had the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million.
In 2022, oil & gas companies have the same opportunity to buy
#Bitcoin
miners on the cheap.
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.
"You Americans can barely afford to pay for gas, groceries, rent & whatnot. So here's what we're going to do.
We're going to raise rates so that your loans are even more unaffordable.
We'll destroy business economics so you get fired... then evicted."
- The Fed, paraphrased
Lots of people on my TL starting to question the validity and value (if any) of
#Bitcoin
over the past couple of days.
Love it. 😂
We’re getting close to a bottom.
The age limit to run for political office should be the same as the age of retirement, which is currently 67.
This should be a Constitutional Amendment.
Prove me wrong.
The $1,000,000 per
#bitcoin
in 90 days infers, in essence, a complete collapse of the banking system in the next 1-3 months… requiring the largest central bank action, by far, in the history of mankind. It would be an absolute disaster. Bitcoin, gold, and other hard assets would…
I don’t know if
#bitcoin
is going to $1,000,000 in 90 days.
But I do know it will increase in value indefinitely, as well as incentivize a much better future than the clown world in which we currently live.
Meanwhile, on
@CNBC
…
Interviewer: “What do you think of
#Bitcoin
, (insert old person’s name)?”
Old person: “I don’t understand it, so I don’t like it. It is therefore bad.”
Interviewer: “There you have it, folks. Confirmation that Bitcoin is bad.”
I don’t know if
#bitcoin
is going to $1,000,000 in 90 days.
But I do know it will increase in value indefinitely, as well as incentivize a much better future than the clown world in which we currently live.
The next time a normie or degen crypto trader asks you when you will take profits on your
#bitcoin
holdings, ask them when they will take profits on their bank savings account trade.
It's an illogical question once you understand money.
Do you feel it?
That deep feeling of satisfaction because life is getting cheaper over the years.
Your hard-earned purchasing power is being preserved, protected, and powered higher... by design.
This is life on a
#Bitcoin
standard.
🧡🧡
#Bitcoin
technical update: 18-Nov. bounce confirmed on RSI, Stochastic RSI and CCI. Bullish momentum shift similar to 20-July and 21-Sept.
Macro: Bullish
To news: Neutral
On-chain: Bullish
Opinion: Local bottom is in. Bullish weeks ahead. I hope you've been adding $btc with me.
You do you, but I would not recommend selling
#bitcoin
in cold storage for any "bitcoin proxy," including $MSTR, bitcoin miners, or bitcoin ETFs.
Some bitcoin proxies may actually outperform spot bitcoin for a period of time, but they also carry additional risks.
Bitcoin is for…
I’ve been in
#Bitcoin
since 2015-16 and have a 4Q 2025 price target of $475,000, which may prove to be conservative.
How much do you think a possible move to $60k, or $50k, or even $45k in the coming weeks or months bothers me?
How much should it bother you, my fellow hodlers?
My goal?
Humbly stack sats until I can support myself and my family off of 5% of my
#bitcoin
stack per year... at bear market lows (IMPORTANT), not bull market highs.
It's similar to the 4% rule of IRAs, but I expect bitcoin to outperform equities, bonds, and real estate far…
My current outlook:
#Bitcoin
the network:
Short-term: Wildly bullish
Mid-term: Wildly bullish
Long-term: Wildly bullish
#bitcoin
the asset:
Short-term: Bearish
Mid-term: Bullish
Long-term: Wildly bullish
Hopefully this will clear up some confusion.
It is absolutely astonishing to me that the market capitalization of the
#Bitcoin
network is only $500B, given our current clown world monetary and fiscal policies.
This steep discount to reality won’t last much longer.
Announcement: Today the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) becomes the first U.S. bitcoin ETF to publish the bitcoin addresses of its holdings.
Now anyone can verify BITB's holdings and flows directly on the blockchain.
Onchain transparency is core to Bitcoin's ethos. We're proud to…