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Strictly key statistics + trends to help you make decisions with your wagers. Sit back as I do all the research for you. @ProfitVips
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Braves 18-1 in the last 19 games behind Fried when coming off a loss.
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PHILLIES....
Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs.
37-9 over the last 5 seasons.
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Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 vs BOS, 6-0 in their last 6 games following an off day and are 5-1 in their last 6 games overall. BOS dropped 8 of their last 10 games overall.
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The Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 games against the Guardians and 5-0 in their last five games in Cleveland. They’re also 5-0 in their last five road games versus a team with a winning record, are 13-4 in their last 17 road games versus a right-hander
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Mets 20-0 this season as a favorite with less than 3 days rest coming off a loss
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MIA is 2-8 ML / 4-6 RL / 6-4 OV VS PHIL
CLEV IS 5-5 ML / 3-7 RL / 5-4 UN VS DET
HOU IS 7-3 ML / 4-6 RL / 7-3 UN VS TEX
K.C. IS 5-5 ML / 6-4 RL / 6-3 UN VS SOX
St.L IS 6-4 ML / 6-4 RL / 6-4 UN VS COL
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Yankees are 19-6 their last 25 games against the Mariners, including 12-3 in Seattle
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JMusgrove is 0-7 since August 2019 when he allowed at least 5 earned runs last game in a start where he was not a -200+ fav
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Texas are 2-6 in their last 8 games overall and are 26-63 in their last 89 road contests in which they’ve faced a right-handed starter. SEA are 5-1 in their last 6 games when playing the opener of a new series, are 22-6 in their last 28 games overall.
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NY Rangers is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
+
5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
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Public teams in Week 7
88% on Seahawks +5.5
80% on Bucs -11.5
76% on Chiefs -2
74% on Giants +3
73% on Jets -1
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SEA 27-8 in their last 35 vs Tex and have won 4 straight in Texas. They’re also 5-0 in their last five divisional games, are 15-3 in their last 18 games versus an opponent with a losing record
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Astros are 20-7 in their last 27 games versus the Guardians and are 7-0 in their last seven games in Cleveland. They’re also 12-2 in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning record
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NYY-NYM
Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings btwn these two teams and is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings at Citi Field. The over is also 8-1 in the Yankees’ last nine games when facing a team with a winning record.
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TNF Bengals-Dolphins
@Bengals
open -2.5, now -4
53% of bets, 67% of money on Bengals
Total open 47.5, now 47
54% of bets, 60% of money on OVER
@MiamiDolphins
open +120, now +165
75% of bets, 43% of money on Dolphins
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Careful this weekend. Public 💰
85% on Jaguars -5
85% on Eagles -4
76% on Bengals -2.5
75% on Vikings -6
71% on Commanders -7
71% on Bills -2.5
70% on Bears -1
70% on Ravens -
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In the past 30 years, double-digit favorites on Thanksgiving are 11-0 ATS
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Frankie MOntas is 0-7 in his division team starts, and 2-10 in his home team starts this season.
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The over is 6-1in the last seven meetings between the Braves and Mets, is 7-0-1 in the Braves’ last eight road games and is 8-1-1 in their last 10 divisional matchups
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LAD a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games vs SF, 22-6 in their last 28 road games versus a right-handed starter and are 47-16 in their last 63 games when facing opponents from the NL West. SF are just 2-8 in their last 10 games after a loss, 1-10 in their last 11 games vs NL West
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Jays 5-0 in their last five games when playing the opener of a new series.
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Rangers have won 25 straight as favs-168+ after coming off a loss!
4-0 this season in this situation
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Top ATS teams:
Falcons 4-0 ATS
Lions 3-1 ATS
Eagles 3-1 ATS
Chargers 3-1 ATS
Giants 3-1 ATS
Cowboys 3-1 ATS
Dolphins 3-1 ATS
Ravens 3-1 ATS
Texans 3-1 ATS
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OV 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams. OV is also 5-0-1 in the Guardians’ last 6 games, is 3-0-1 in their last four on the road and 5-0-1 in their last 6 games when facing a right-handed starter. On the other side, the over is 6-1 in the Red Sox last 7
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Analytic Plays
Virginia ML
Kansas Over 68.5
Bowling Green over 54.5
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Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 10 games
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SF won 5/6 before the break, 4/5 vs NL West and are 24-10 in their last 34 games following an off day. 5-1 last 6 games vs an opponent with a winning record. 5-2 in their last 7 games when their opponent allowed two runs or less in their previous game
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LAD-LAA
UN 5-1 in the last 6 h2h. 18-8-3 in the LAA last 29 games overall and is 4-0 in last 4 home games when facing a left-handed starter. Add the under is 10-2-2 in the Dodgers’ last 14 games when playing the second game of a series and is 6-1-2 in their last nine
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Brewers vs Dodgers
Brewers are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in LA
Brewers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings
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Toronto is 12-2 in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Boston
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Orioles are 10-2 in their last 12 home games, are 4-1 in their last five home games when facing a left-handed starter and are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scored two runs or less in its previous contest.
The Rays are now 1-6 in their last seven road games, are 1-5 in their last six games when facing an opponent with a losing record and are 1-6 in their last seven road games when facing an opponent with a sub .500 record
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Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (SEATTLE)
with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games, in August games
39-8 over the last 5 seasons.
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OK State are cover machines
11-2-1 ATS in conference games since 2021
17-4-1 ATS vs ranked opponents since 2018
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1H Over is 11-1-1 in Eagles games this season and we’ve been on about 6 of them. Continue to ride 📈⬆️
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For whatever it's worth Astros are a league-best 10-1 on Thursdays this season.
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Worst teams against the spread this season:
Commanders 1-3
Broncos 1-3
Vikings 1-3
Panthers 1-3
Bears 1-3
Saints 1-3
Colts 1-3
Rams 1-3
Raiders 1-3
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Early Week 4 line movements
📈
Bengals -2.5 to -4 vs. MIA
Giants -3 to -3.5 vs. CHI
Bills -3 to -3.5 at BAL
📉
Eagles -7 to -6.5 vs. JAC
Chargers -6.5 to -4.5 at HOU
Lions -6.5 to -4.5 vs. SEA
Vikings -3 to -2.5 at NO
Browns -3 to -1.5 at ATL
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Lions 3-0 ATS
Dolphins 3-0 ATS
Falcons 3-0 ATS
Texans 3-0 ATS
—————————-
Patriots 0-2-1 ATS
Raiders 0-3 ATS
Saints 0-3 ATS
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The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games when playing New Orleans
Totals UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
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Girona have won 8 of their last 9 matches
5/5 Gironas L5 have gone over 2.5
Celta’s Last 3 have gone over 2.5
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NYY-BAL
Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams and is 4-1 in the last five meetings in BAL. The over is also 12-2 in the Yankees’ last 14 games overall, is 7-1 in their last eight road games and is 7-1 in their last eight road games.
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NFL YTD
Underdogs: 21-26-1 SU,
Underdogs 29-18-1 ATS
Teams getting <40% of bets: 13-6 ATS
Unders: 30-18
Unders in Primetime: 7-3
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SF 72-38 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons
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Most bet teams for tomorrow
1. Arkansas +17
2. Michigan -10.5
3. Kentucky +7
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All favs with a money line of -150 or more (HOUSTON)
with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL)
98-30.
72% win probability today
Astros ML
Astros -1.5
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Tampa Bay is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Baltimore
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The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 vs ATL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 9 games on the road
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Careful watcha you wish for
90% of bets on Washington -21
89% on FSU -2.5
87% on Tenn. -20.5
87% on UNC -7.5
86% on South Carolina -6.5
85% on UF -28
83% on Miami (FL) -23
82% on Oklahoma -14.5
81% on Colorado +21
81% on Texas -15
81% on USC -35
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🏀 ATS
Houston 12-5 ATS
ECU 12-5 ATS
UConn 12-5 ATS
Marquette 12-5 ATS
St. Thomas 12-5 ATS
SIUE 11-3 ATS
Pitt 11-4-1 ATS
Nevada 11-4-1 ATS
Cincy 11-5 ATS
Marshall 11-5
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Lamar Jackson is 9-1 ATS (7-3 SU) in his last 10 starts as an underdog
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Public 💰
78% on Lions -1
76% on Chiefs -2.5
65% on Ravens -9.5
63% on Titans +4.5
63% on Buccaneers -3.5
60% on Steelers +1
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Fav stat of day
Bieber is 10-0 in his career as a favorite of more than -115 when he worked more than 7.1 innings last start.
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Christian Kirk needs 2 catches for a $500k bonus...
And 91 yards to trigger a $500k bonus.
Kirk’s player prop is set at 56.5 yards.
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Twins Overs 6-1 Last 7
Brewers ML 9-0 Last 9
Dodgers Obers 5-0 Last 5
Giants 8-0 VS N.L Central
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Braves are still 7-3 in their last 10 games vs the Phillies and are 16-6 in their last 22 road games. The Braves have also won 21 of their last 29 games when facing a right-handed starter, including a 10-4 mark in their last 14 road games when vs righty.
Gotta ride em again
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🍀
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Vancouver's last 9 games
Analytic Play: Over 6.5
🍀
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The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
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Have Pitt winning at a 70% probability tonight 👀
4-0 so far with winning probability > 69%
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Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Chi White Sox
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Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 in his career vs the Raiders with the Chiefs averaging 37 points
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BAL-CIN
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
Under is 9-0 in Bengals last 9 games overall
Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
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12
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Betting Trends
Phillies are 2-12 in the last 14 meetings in Arizona
Phillies are 10-21 in the last 31 meetings
Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings
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The total has gone OVER in 9 of St. Louis's last 10 games on the road
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AL 20-3-1 in the last 24 overall, pretty remarkable NL short favs.
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Green Bay is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
Washington is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Buff
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Indianapolis's last 15
Jets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
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Under is 7-2 in the SEA last 9 games overall, is 7-2 in their last 9 divisional games and is 7-1 in their last 8 games when facing a right-handed starter. Astros Under 6-1 last 7 home games
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