Unexpected Points
@Unexpected_Pts
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Newsletter and podcast from @KevinCole___ on the analytical side of the NFL, advanced data and logical analysis to understand the game a little better
Joined October 2009
Unexpected Points Substack live. Daily articles, podcasts 2x per week, opportunities for subscriber interaction, and links to additional data in the posts. Up for a little over a week and nearing 1K subs https://t.co/Nt4lGc3haG
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Top-15 quarterbacks in total adjusted EPA @Unexpected_Pts Who has gotten the most help (negative adjustments): Jordan Love The least help (positive adj): Justin Herbert Dak with a healthy lead at the top, combining volume and efficiency
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Next grouping for QB GOAT: *40: Matthew Stafford *39: Dak Prescott 38: Troy Aikman 37: Jim Kelly 36: Boomer Esiason *New additions to the top-50 https://t.co/dIwW8j9OoT
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Two new additions to the top-50, with three more familiar names from the 1990s
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Next grouping for QB GOAT: 45: Jeff Garcia (includes CFL value) 44: Jim Hart 43: Joe Namath (yes, I'd rank him much higher) 42: Bert Jones (the forgotten "generational talent" among Colts QBs) 41: Charlie Conerly https://t.co/hXltWvuXTq
unexpectedpoints.com
An all-time great (probably) underranked, plus a few other underappreciated careers
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The first cohort in the updated QB GOAT top-50: 50: Billy Kilmer 49: Donovan McNabb 48: Roman Gabriel 47: Rich Gannon 46: Joe Theismann https://t.co/bDm3aGT9MY
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Some of these quarterbacks failed in the playoffs, others had tremendous late-career jumps into the elite
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The @Unexpected_Pts QB GOAT methodology combines career, peak and playoff performance, adjusted for era, to rank the value of every QB since 1947 https://t.co/ZepZgidw49
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In my current update to the rankings, I highlighted current QBs who didn't quite make it into the top-50 all-time: 99: Joe Burrow 94: Jalen Hurts 88: Justin Herbert 62: Brock Purdy 53: Kirk Cousins 51: Jared Goff https://t.co/R6lFfix2zJ
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Two years have passed since I introduced an analytical methodology for valuing the top-50 quarterbacks in NFL (plus AFL/AACC) history. Now it's time for an update
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My rankings for the top-100 prospects by projected surplus value, plus my commentary on what the rankings could still be missing https://t.co/Daky1rllCX
unexpectedpoints.com
Leveraging what evaluators do well, and enhancing it with analytics, via positional and surplus value
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My analysis translating position-agnostic draft grades (from @SportsInfo_SIS) into an analytical, surplus-value Big Board for the 2025 draft class. Yes, QBs are really valuable
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The 2025 tight end draft class has a number of prospects who check the boxes for NFL success. More details on the methodology of my analysis, previous results and commentary on this year's class here https://t.co/3nphe6DIqZ
unexpectedpoints.com
There's a smaller sample of elite, valuable tight ends in the NFL, but they share traits with the 2025 class that you can identify in college and combine metrics
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Successful tight end prospects are generally very fast and elite at avoiding tackles to generate YAC. With a simple screening for these traits, you can get a long way to identifying draft targets for a position that notoriously difficult to evaluate
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Entire analysis here, including lots of info on previous classes https://t.co/3nphe6DIqZ
unexpectedpoints.com
There's a smaller sample of elite, valuable tight ends in the NFL, but they share traits with the 2025 class that you can identify in college and combine metrics
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How does the 2025 tight end class measure in the metrics I've found most correlated with NFL success (10-yard split and avoided-tackle rate)? Pretty well
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Updated @Unexpected_Pts Offseason Improvement Index Patriots at the top, now including the addition of Stefon Diggs
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The @Unexpected_Pts Consensus 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Version 1.0 Leveraging data from @GrindingMocks from hundreds of NFL mock drafts to look at likely distribution of landing spots for the top-32 draft prospects https://t.co/b7kESRXHGJ
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New post @Unexpected_Pts The Titans look like a mess: They should still look to draft a quarterback There's little evidence that teams should have confidence in offensive surroundings before drafting their potential franchise quarterback https://t.co/bB2VCKTGaX
unexpectedpoints.com
There's little evidence that teams should have confidence in offensive surroundings before drafting their potential franchise quarterback
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You can find all other offensive position breakdowns, plus the full methodology here https://t.co/b3CpJpuSJO
unexpectedpoints.com
Using proprietary NFL Plus/Minus methodology to concretely assign value to all non-quarterback offensive players
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Most valuable wide receivers in the regular season according to the my NFL Plus/Minus methodology (modeling based on player clustering and historical EPA on-off splits) Ja'Marr Chase with the most total points added. A.J. Brown surprising close, considering his lower usage
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I walk through the MVP cases for both Allen and Jackson in this post, provide additional stats and considerations to clarify the comparison, and ultimate make a tough call https://t.co/aSIZt60Tuv
unexpectedpoints.com
In a razor-thin contest for NFL MVP, the majority of metrics lean slightly in one direction
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Josh Allen finishes the 2024 regular season with the thinnest of leads over Lamar Jackson in adjusted quarterback efficiency (AQE)
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