The Uncertainty Project
@UncertaintyProj
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We share thoughts 🧠, research 📑, and frameworks 🪜 on strategic decision-making. Check out our newsletter 👇 sponsored by @DotworkHQ
Joined November 2021
"A wise leader, therefore, does not see herself as someone who simply makes sound decisions; because she realizes she can never, on her own, be an optimal decision maker, she views herself as a decision architect in charge of designing her organization's decision-making
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How can we systematically improve decision quality? Some key questions to ask: Were dissenting opinions and alternatives entertained? Were there clear principles and criteria driving the evaluation of options? Was the information supporting the decision effectively
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Is a decision "good" just because it's "data-driven"? Not necessarily. While data and analysis are important, process and dialog may have a more significant role than you think according to research Olivier Sibony spearheaded at McKinsey. They looked at 1,048 major decisions
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The quality of a decision is measured by its process, not its outcome. Measuring decisions by observing the outcome is subject to outcome bias. Even if the best decision was made given the information available at the time, luck is still a meaningful variable. As Annie Duke
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The Abilene Paradox: When conformity leads to disaster Imagine a group of people who all secretly want to stay home, but end up going on a long, miserable trip to Abilene, Texas. Why? Because everyone conforms to what they think others want, even though it's not what anyone
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Most people think psychological safety is about creating a comfortable, positive environment. But that's not the case. True psychological safety is about embracing the uncomfortable. It's about fostering an environment where people can surface hard truths, interrogate
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I got the opportunity to share @Management30's Delegation Poker Cards, @nearfuturelab's Work Kit for Design Fiction, @WorkNOBL's The Decider app, and the @flipper_zero. And I got to shill @UncertaintyProj.
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"The leaders in our research who built great companies understood that what happens after a decision—the level of commitment to and ferocity of implementation—counts at least as much as the decision itself." ~ Jim Collins Amazon has "Disagree and Commit". HubSpot has "Debate,
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@lennysan We have done a lot of writing about decision making models @UncertaintyProj if you want to check out a bunch: https://t.co/Z3ehtB9KRO Using rehearsal and randomness are two very strong techniques that I don't think many people know about (they are in that list too)!
theuncertaintyproject.org
The Uncertainty Project is a community-led playbook of decision making models and techniques
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The Uncertainty Project @UncertaintyProj (by @KyleByrd99 and friends) looks to be an incredible resource for navigating complex systems of work (which is all of them): https://t.co/ucYuhdHOkm All for free. Feel the learn!
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We're on Product Hunt today and we'd love your support! 🙏 Head on over to our PH page and give us an upvote 🔮🚀
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How ‘collective illusions’ influence decision making https://t.co/R48LbeOktD
@uxdesigncc @KyleByrd99 @UncertaintyProj #business #leaders #leadership #management #CEO #decisionmaking
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There seems to be something deeply human about our desire to understand ‘why’, perceive meaning, act with conviction, inspire, and cooperate in groups. How do we think about strategic decision making in the age of artificial intelligence? https://t.co/QF6nSipD9D
lnkd.in
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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When communication only happens at the decision point, we miss out on opportunities for building buy-in and including diverse perspectives buried in tacit knowledge. Buy-in does not require consensus and decisiveness is not inherently exclusive. https://t.co/KPXW0yvA5V
theuncertaintyproject.org
We often think of communication as a post-decisions activity, but how can bring people along for the process to help smooth over even the most unpopular decisions?
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"A good framing is rarely whether or not to do something" There are many more insightful nuggets in this post by @skmurphy
https://t.co/bcZ7j2dFku
skmurphy.com
Business leaders today see established approaches and well-tried options no longer working, forcing them to make business decisions in uncertain times.
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Great summer reading list by @behscientist. A few, in particular, caught our eye 👀: - 📘 The Cult of Creativity - 📙 The Experience Machine - 📗 Mixed Signals - 📕 Power and Progress - 📓 Psych - 📔 Rethinking Intelligence https://t.co/qBQkw1iMqU
behavioralscientist.org
The summer book list is a chance to peruse a collection of the most compelling behavioral science books published so far this year.
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Seek consensus on how decisions are framed, not the decisions themselves
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This week we dug into 'divergent thinking', the biases that keep us from considering broader solutions, and tools to help encourage 'out of the box' thinking! 👉
blueprint.beehiiv.com
Optionality is critical in strategic decision making and it starts with how we think
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