1/Due to a disagreement I got into with a undistinguished individual , I feel like it is time why I explain why we can use the MIA number as part of a "irrec/KIA floor". I will try to keep it simple (analysis, however, was anything but).

The Ghost of Sudzha reappeared at Myrnograd.Leaving bent metal and rust on its destructive wake.

10/ In short, decent plan, but due the Europeans, it will likely fail.

9/ simply not work. For them, they may KNOW that this is the best deal for Ukraine, but it is not the best deal for them. They simply want to buy time (for something) and weaken Russia further.

8/ Would Side A still negotiate? Absolutely not. European credibility under their "girlboss" leadership is just piteous. In short, unless Americans are downright serious about this and will ACTUALLY follow through on dropping Ukraine, due to the Europeans, this will just

7/ war ends now. Stop with this "counterproposal" bullshit. Imagine in business if a contract is drafted, both sides are about to negotiate. Then side B's friend says, nah here go negotiate this contract instead. And it's just full of stuff complete favorable to side B.

6/ That can be the "compromise" that Russia gives. Anyways, what the Europeans are doing is just pathetic. Yeah, you may disagree with the deal and its formulation, but be honest. Say you want Ukrainians to keep fighting as you are terrified of the new balance of power if the

5/ Russia would rather another 5 years of war then have foreign contingents set up in Ochakov. WRT military size, this is a complete non-sequitur and can be removed. Ukraine will not be able to afford anything over 300k.

4/ city itself from the east (as opposed to the south)? That concerns territory. With respect to NATO/foreign troops, the war will not end as long as the possibility of foreign stationing of troops is on the table. It's simply just not a point that can be changed.

3/ One can say that Slavyansk/Kramatorsk are much more important and fortified than that the lands Russia is taking in Kharkov/Dnepropetrovsk, sure. However, mind you Russia is actively taking more land in Zapo as well. Do Ukrainians want to risk Russians reaching the

2/ As I have already made this point in the group and in reply to someone else, the territory Russia controls outside the 4 oblasts, is about 2500km^2, Ukraine is at about 5300 in Donbass. The trend is that this will soon reach an inflection point.

1/ Quick thoughts on the negotiations. Unlike many, I see the 28 point plan as decently realistic. Many on the other side decry giving up rest of Donetsk. But mind you prior to this war of the 89 localities officially as cities, it was split. Now it's 77-8.

11/ To conclude, the current MIA number either published by @LossesUA or whoever else, should not really be treated with skepticism. It's a floor. Vast majority of these men are not returning to the war effort, if they are, they are heavily offset by new men that are not.

10/ Additionally in 2025, which has been by far the deadliest year in terms of MIA, most months are "peaking" now (meaning the rate names are added to that month are exceeding any that may be removed). The earlier months have seen very little movement.

9/ Lastly, to see exactly how much is removed, I took the max a month ever was in MIAs (from whatever registry, it is typically a couple months after the actual date) and compared it to how many entries in Nov 25. It has never dipped below 50, not even close.

8/ Now back to the original claim. It appears to be wrong. The numbers DO go down, even if not by much. However, this is completely offset by new additions. In fact, there has not been a single month where the offset of removal has been more than additions.

7/ For a more recent example, we can look at May 2025. Since such little time has passed, and the lack of body exchanges, this number is still practically right at the peak, even with subsequent updates to the registry.

6/ As we can see here, there is a peak about 3 months after the initial month (March 2023 pull is halfway through the month and more entries are put in the following months) and starts trailing off in subsequent versions of the registry. This pattern is highly typical. April 24.

5/ For example there will be guys in the Oct 2023 MIA registry that were listed as missing in Mar 2023, that are not there in the recent registry as they were removed over time. I plotted it here. X-axis is each month's version of the registry. Y is the count.

4/ What this means is that that version was published then. I'm not simply looking at the current 18 Nov version and sorting by date, I am using the registries as they were when published in that month. The reason being, yes, some people do get removed over time.

3/ region where they went missing. If a man is found to be KIA or confirmed deserter/POW they are TYPICALLY (not always) taken off the list. Now, to study how the list evolved, I pulled 35 different versions of the registry. One from each month starting in Jan 2023.