Stop chasing breakouts. Most of them fail. Instead, learn to trade the "Failed Breakdown." It’s the most consistent way to catch high-RR reversals on $ES and $NQ. The 4-step playbook: 🧵

View into Next Session : Given the large gap today, we ran into some over head supply near Thurs/Fri highs at 6770-6790 where bears waiting passively absorbing prices. This is a clear LIS for bears to hold to revisit lower prices at 6662. Bulls if really motivated would bid and

The Story of Todays Session: Participants where to net short in Friday close leading today into a short covering rally that started during Sunday ETH and reverting back to Thursday value zone where we put in a failed break out attempt last week that led price lower into 6700 In

ES/SPX Plan 3/17/2026 + Market Recap In the newsletter below , we are going to be discussing the new M contract for ES futures as the volume has migrated over into the new contract mid day. Opening Session Narrative: After a few sessions of value migration lower, Sunday during

View into Next Session : Bulls have to reclaim > 6660s to begin to test the 6700 break down zone. For further downside bears would need to hold below 6625 prior week VAL for a continuation leg lower into 6584. Overall bulls dropped the ball and bears remain in firm control,

In order assess todays session from neutral perspective we will answer a few questions below to ensure we see price objectively. Was it searching for new value? Yes, value has formed a lower prices from last 2 weeks. Did it fail at higher prices? Yes, failed to hold > last week

The Story of Todays Session: Into next week, the question for bulls is can they form an excess low and begin to claw back some of this down trend or will bears continue to push lower and accept lower prices. We have had 2 weeks of lower value, with closing near the low end of the

ES/SPX Plan 3/16/2026 + Market Recap Opening Session Narrative: ES had a relative wide range on Friday 3/13, having closed at 6685~ and opening the next session with a gap near the PDH at ~6730s. This gap and go session ultimately lead to a failed break out and price auctioned

Full Plan detail for next session in bio link to substack

As of this morning we had an active Failed Break down at the open, this was part of the market planned zones to hold for long at 6775. FBD called out live below: Also took this trade live on YT : https://t.co/RQhiFTuRRH

View into Next Session : Into the rest of the week, ideally bulls will hold value > the large LVN gap below 6770 to keep the test of the 6838 / 6888 level intact. - Same view as before must hold Overall today was a constructive day for bulls, for the first time in many sessions

The Story of Todays Session: In yesterdays newsletter there was one immediate zone of interest for bulls to hold in order to test higher into 6838 zone given yesterday. Bulls pushed price and held the 6770-6760s and tested the 6838 with an extreme push into 6852 leaving a poor

ES/SPX Plan 3/11/2026 + Market Recap Opening Session Narrative: For the fist time in what seems like an eternity, the ES opening right near its prior day close and had a balanced session between 2 value zones ~6835-6845 and below at 6780-6770. Open auction - rotational day,

$ES $SPX Held the LVN area 6770 and testing 6810-28

View into Next Session : Into the rest of the week, ideally bulls will hold value > the large LVN gap below 6770 to keep the test of the 6838 / 6888 level intact. Overall bears attempted to gap down and hold for a continuation trend down move, which failed as of now. Into

As of this morning we have an active FBD set up at 6661 , with a slightly higher one at 6700. Given we are stretched about 100pts from the nearest FBD, it is time to allow price to find a new failed move lower which I will discuss in todays plans. FBD called out live below:

View into Next Session : Into the rest of the week, ideally bulls will hold value > the large LVN gap below 6770 to keep the test of the 6838 / 6888 level intact. Overall bears attempted to gap down and hold for a continuation trend down move, which failed as of now. Into

In order assess todays session from neutral perspective we will answer a few questions below to ensure we see price objectively. Was it searching for new value? Yes, and price found value above last weeks VAL, Neutral. Did it fail at higher prices? No, price ended the day

The Story of Todays Session: As we end the Monday session, we gapped down and ended the day at last weeks VAL 6782-6790. This hold into last weeks value is a very bullish set up into next week that if held could traverse all of last weeks value into the 6890-6880. We ended

ES/SPX Plan 3/10/2026 + Market Recap Opening Session Narrative: Overnight ES gapped down from prior day close at 6740 down into 6660, leaving action imbalanced at the open from prior days value. We had yet another open rejection reverser move, marking for yet another reversion

ES/SPX Plan 3/2/2026 + Market Recap 🧵 Opening Session Narrative: Today we opened on a gap down opening ES near 6855 which is right near the low end of the weekly VAL 6850, leaving price with a open test drive set up. Open test drive – open inside value with a probe outside and