Tony
@TonyElHabr
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data person
Austin, TX
Joined August 2015
it's not like there is a ton more added time in the Copa (due to more fouls, dead ball time, etc.) 1st period added time average: EURO: 1.58 Copa: 2.75 2nd period average: EURO: 4.62 Copa: 4.71
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ideally we would have "ball-in-play" time to quantify pacing, but pass volume seems like an ok heuristic. most extreme cases: Italy 809 - 372 Albania Ecuador 275 - 332 Jamaica is this due to just play styles? or maybe physicality of the matches and officiating?
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Is xG in neutral gamestates a better predictor of future performance than xG across all gamestates? ⚽️🤔 tldr: no, but it's closer than you might think
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Season-ending xGD by game state for the EPL Some non-top 4 observations: 🔴Brentford were average at worst in all game states 🔵 Everton did best when drawing ⚪️ Nottingham Fores did best when trailing 🟣West Ham and Man U were outperformed in all game states
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🔗(late post since i had to do some revisions)
tonyelhabr.rbind.io
Quantifying how unlikely a player’s season-long shooting performance is, factoring in their prior shot history
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Cooked up a new blog post on ⚽️ players underperforming xG. Contents include: 🔴Unnecessary LaTeX usage 🔴Double-digit footnotes 🔴An appendix no one asked for 🟢Sick plots 🟡Questionable insights
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✍️ ⚽️Are all 20 yard passes judged equally by possession value (PV) models? Can you still get positive PV from incomplete passes? Answers to these questions and more in my new blog post. (L I N K I N R E P L Y.)
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Welp, #ATLUTD have given up a goal in the first 30 min of their first match in 2024. They may lead in this stat again this season.
My #sick stat for #ATLUTD - in 2023 they spent the lowest % of time in a 0-0 game state. With a revamped back line (and Guzan on the sidelines), they should be better at avoiding early game golazos.
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My #sick stat for #ATLUTD - in 2023 they spent the lowest % of time in a 0-0 game state. With a revamped back line (and Guzan on the sidelines), they should be better at avoiding early game golazos.
Some bangers today: Almada and Inshallah - @TonyElHabr #WeAreTheA Krei-less for Kreilach - @Harrison_Crow #RealSaltLake Can't Spell Houston Without A Little HH - @beeryball #HoldItDown
https://t.co/qeWy2z98TP
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Austin FC sent 61%(!) of attacking throw-ins into the box last season, more than 2022/23 Brentford's league-leading 53% in the EPL. Will they be throw-in merchants again this season?
More previews coming at you, A Sheep in Wolff's Clothing - @TonyElHabr #AustinFC Peter Piper Picked a Pec of Pickled Prospects - @SeanSteffen #LAGalaxy Rising to New Heitz - @b_grnwd #CF97
https://t.co/y856vsSErs
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Which R16 #UCL teams have improved the most since the start of their domestic league seasons? 📈PSG (+7), Real Madrid (+2), Real Sociedad (+3) 📉Napoli (-8), Arsenal (-3), Porto (-3)
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To add to Jon's thread, this chart also shows % of time in each game state. West Ham are good at getting a lead and holding on to it (4th most time leading), so a negative xGD when ahead may simply reflect a more passive play style when leading.
West Ham are 6th in the Premier League table but putting up relegation-worthy underlying numbers to get there. Here's a little thread to explain what's going on:
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Should we account for team quality (Elo) in xG models? While I'm against this in principle, I tried it out. ✍️ (Link in first reply. 🔗)
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