Tomas
@TomasOnMarkets
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Markets and macroeconomics - read my words at the Milk Road Macro newsletter ⬇️
Joined February 2021
I wrote about the risk with systematic strategies in the latest Milk Road PRO report:
milkroad.com
Now is not the time to panic.
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Looks we've triggered a huge mechanical deleveraging of systematic strategies today. They were ultra-long equities and therefore hyper-sensitive to small fluctuations in trend and volatility, so it doesn't take much for them to start selling. It's been ripe for a while.
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Q4 will be the quarter of running it hot. Speculation is bubbling within US equities. My "speculation gauge" (ARKK/SPX) has hit the highest level since July. Bitcoin and crypto next up. It's late 2024 all over again - that's the playbook. Fed rate cuts into a reaccelerating
It's simple folks. Not only is the US economy resilient, but it's probably reaccelerating into Q4. And the Fed is about to start cutting rates again. This is why everything is melting up and will likely continue to do so. This is the definition of "running it hot". It's an
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Q4 will be the quarter of running it hot. Speculation is bubbling within US equities. My "speculation gauge" (ARKK/SPX) has hit the highest level since July. Bitcoin and crypto next up. It's late 2024 all over again - that's the playbook. Fed rate cuts into a reaccelerating
It's simple folks. Not only is the US economy resilient, but it's probably reaccelerating into Q4. And the Fed is about to start cutting rates again. This is why everything is melting up and will likely continue to do so. This is the definition of "running it hot". It's an
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It's simple folks. Not only is the US economy resilient, but it's probably reaccelerating into Q4. And the Fed is about to start cutting rates again. This is why everything is melting up and will likely continue to do so. This is the definition of "running it hot". It's an
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I wrote about this week's FOMC meeting in the Milk Road Macro newsletter. You can sign up here (it's free):
mrmacro.milkroad.com
Helping everyday people get smarter about macro investing. Learn how global markets impact our favorite risk assets like Bitcoin, tech stocks, and more!
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It's simple folks. Not only is the US economy resilient, but it's probably reaccelerating into Q4. And the Fed is about to start cutting rates again. This is why everything is melting up and will likely continue to do so. This is the definition of "running it hot". It's an
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I keep seeing people claiming that "equity positioning is stretched", so a big drawdown is coming. This is just not true. Overall, equity positioning is not particularly stretched. Performance chasing has been occurring over the past couple of months, as institutional
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I'll give you "stretched" positioning in the systematic world. This is now looking quite stretched. The two biggest segments of the systematic world - Vol Control and CTA - have bought more than $100bn in recent weeks and are now pretty much fully loaded up. They may start
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I keep seeing people claiming that "equity positioning is stretched", so a big drawdown is coming. This is just not true. Overall, equity positioning is not particularly stretched. Performance chasing has been occurring over the past couple of months, as institutional
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Financial conditions are still turbo loose. And getting looser. According to my Financial Conditions Index. It's a similar story with the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. This is getting back to the "peak speculation" levels of 2020/2021.
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Financial conditions are still turbo loose. And getting looser. According to my Financial Conditions Index. It's a similar story with the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. This is getting back to the "peak speculation" levels of 2020/2021.
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Big day - Milk Road is launching Macro PRO. It’s the new paid tier over at @MilkRoadMacro, and it includes: ⏺️ Macro deep dives ⏺️ Live AMA calls with our research team ⏺️ Access to our private community where you can talk markets with me and the team It’s high-level, but
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I said three weeks ago that the dollar was due for a period of upward correction/consolidation. This was because of extremely bearish sentiment and positioning ("the dollar's dead", "the end of US exceptionalism" etc). As well as the upcoming $500bn rebuild of the Treasury
📉 Federal Reserve Liquidity set to fall The Fed liquidity "upswing" that began on January 1 2025 is now over. The US Government had previously been draining the Treasury General Account (liquidity injection). But a new debt ceiling agreement was reached last week ($5 trillion
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I mentioned this subject in the latest Milk Road Macro newsletter. You can sign up here (it's free):
mrmacro.milkroad.com
Helping everyday people get smarter about macro investing. Learn how global markets impact our favorite risk assets like Bitcoin, tech stocks, and more!
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I said three weeks ago that the dollar was due for a period of upward correction/consolidation. This was because of extremely bearish sentiment and positioning ("the dollar's dead", "the end of US exceptionalism" etc). As well as the upcoming $500bn rebuild of the Treasury
📉 Federal Reserve Liquidity set to fall The Fed liquidity "upswing" that began on January 1 2025 is now over. The US Government had previously been draining the Treasury General Account (liquidity injection). But a new debt ceiling agreement was reached last week ($5 trillion
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✅ Financial conditions just keep on loosening I believe the professional term for the current environment is "turbo loose". My Financial Conditions Indicator (rolling z-score) has basically dropped in a straight line down since early April. It's now well below zero (green -
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Systematic buying is continuing to fuel the rally higher. Loosing steam a little bit now. But systematic strategies are still expected to chase the rally further under most circumstances. Goldman Sachs estimates that systematic funds will “continue to buy $107bn of global
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✅ Financial conditions just keep on loosening I believe the professional term for the current environment is "turbo loose". My Financial Conditions Indicator (rolling z-score) has basically dropped in a straight line down since early April. It's now well below zero (green -
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Big week coming up with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. If you want to stay looped in on the action, @MilkRoadMacro is launching a new podcast this week headed up by @BitcoinJesus17. Today he was joined by @TopadoDuran and right after Powell’s presser on Wednesday @TgMacro will
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