Tom Smith
@TomSmith839
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Long shitcos that can grow EPS (FCF) at 15% for a few years. Occasionally long unprofitable shitcos if I’m in the mood for losing money
Joined October 2022
All you can do in this world, is do what's right. You can't necessarily do what's gonna works tomorrow. You can't tell the quality of the decision based on the outcome
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Imagine for some reason you bought $BX at $10 in 2010 and you held it through today, would you ever sell given the yearly dividend now is roughly $5/share? (assume Blackstone isn't a total zero)
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$PAX Patria Investments
@IlyaKan2004 @SnowCapResearch Some follow on from Q4 & FY25 earnings: - Fundraising was very good in Q4 ($1.7B) and FY25 ($7.7B) ; mgmt keeps fundraising guidance for 26 ($7B) & 27 ($8B) and calls out 'conservatism' as momentum is good - AUM up 26% YoY, FEAUM up 24%, FRR up 13%, FRE up 17% & FRE/share up 15%
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I know it's a bear case right now, but Shift4 $FOUR trades at roughly 10x 2025 Subscription (& other) Revenue (or SaaS Revenue/ARR if you want) 30% YoY and it is very much not part of the business model
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Partly from the sideline, but very much looking forward to $APO $ARES & $OWL earnings calls
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Third M&A for Patria Investments $PAX in a rather short timespan: buys WP Global Partners for $30m (1.7% of $1.8B FPAUM) Adds +10 investment professionals and +120 GP relationships Assume 0.75 bps fee rate and 30% FRE margin (just guessing here), it's about 7x FRE Would add $4m
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Do analysts have it wrong about $PAR? $60m FCF in 2027 (about $30m in SBC?) on a $1.2B MC & $1.5B EV?
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Anyone interested in 19% ROIC? $FOUR
The Greystone Capital Q4 letter is available on the site. Included in the Appendix is a writeup on $FOUR, our newest investment, and a business solving what appears to be an intractable problem. https://t.co/0kU9EgbsjR
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Hearing this more often (& also that Canada is taking on the travelers that would have gone to US)
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I fully acknowledge I sound like a broken record, but the most beautiful thing about this table is that Shift4 $FOUR buys companies at the same multiple (EBITDA instead of Revenue obviously) and usually EBITDA doubles within the next 3Y
Adding Brex to long list of #B2B M&A comps. Giving them forward revenue of $825MM (?), implies 6.2x, at lower end of range. $BILL at <3x.
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Edenred $EDEN $EDEN.PA & Pluxee $PLX $PLX.PA share price back at or even below when Federal Court of São Paulo (temporarily) suspended the cap on MDR (For Pluxee specifically: said they can (modestly) grow 2026 EBITDA even in the worst case Brazil outcome)
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$EQT purchases Coller Capital for $3.2B (& $500m earnouts) or 17.5x 2026 EV/ FR EBITDA $40B FEAUM by end of 2026 (Not apples to apples, but $PAX still at (only) $2.8B with probably north $50B in FEAUM by end of 2026 and $70B by end of 2027)
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The most staggering fact about $CSU $CSU.TO 45% drop from ATH is that valuation was never excessive (given double digit growth, 20% ROIC etc.)
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First cross-sell (CCRD + REN) out of 3 by April 2026 following $EEFT notes on the Northland Call Includes revolving credit (= CCRD), 300m deposit accounts and $5T in deposits globally As mentioned in the comments by DXC & MasterCard previously (see third screenshot), there is
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$THRY share price 62% lower in 6 months and at 1x 2025 EV/SaaS Sales and 6.5x EV/Saas EBITDA SaaS is about half of the business (in 2025) and set to grow double digits for the foreseeable future? On track to pay off (all) debt with legacy marketing CF If not vibe coded away by
Thryv Holdings $THRY now at 1.7x 2025 EV/SAAS Sales (not including the Marketing Services) and medium term targets for the SAAS are 20% CAGR & 20% EBITDA margins. Would result in $1B in SAAS Revenue (= Total Revenue) & $200M in EBITDA in 2030. In the meantime, should get another
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$NOW SBC 16% of revenue? How can anyone expect to make money on this? 50x OCF ex-SBC?
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