New Normal Consulting
@ThepHReport
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Experienced advisers to major companies and financial institutions - with particular focus on rising impact of geopolitics and defence
Zurich, Switzerland
Joined January 2016
We don't often use the word "impossible". But the ageing of the BabyBoomers in the world's richest economies means it is impossible for GDP to match the growth achieved during the Boomer SuperCycle, when the Boomers were in their Wealth Creator years https://t.co/5LZwt0qwJa
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Smartphone markets are essentially acting as the 'canary in the coalmine', warning us that the global economy is only at the start of suffering a major shock.
new-normal.com
The Hormuz crisis and soaring memory-chip costs will reshape the smartphone market
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Today's oil/natural gas price rises will likely repeat previous 'boom and bust' cycles. Companies therefore need to (a) prepare for the short-term 'boom' and (b) plan in detail for the potential recessionary 'bust' which will follow it.
new-normal.com
As we warned was likely last month, the Strait of Hormuz has now been blocked for the first time in history. Only 105 transits have been made through the Strait since March 1, versus 1870 in the same...
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The Middle East crisis highlights the need for Europe to rebuild its competitive edge. This will need new business models, to address today's market needs. And it will create major new opportunities for forward looking companies. https://t.co/D3JW6Iydp8
new-normal.com
This week sees the key EU Summit on Thursday 19 March. It will decide whether Europe starts to respond to the challenge posed by the USA and China.
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The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed before. So we are in uncharted waters. And President Trump's plan to provide naval escorts to reopen it, creates a new element of risk. What would happen if an Iranian drone hit a US warship?
new-normal.com
It's been nearly 20 years since the last period of major Middle East turmoil. And only those aged 50+ will remember the recessions in the 1970s/80s
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As the BBC warns: "The danger now is that President Trump, having amassed this powerful force close to Iran's borders, decides he must act or lose face. And a war begins with no clear end-state and with unpredictable and potentially damaging repercussions"
new-normal.com
The risk is very simple - that any US attack might lead Iran to close the Strait. If this happened, energy markets would suddenly flip from surplus to shortage. Prices could easily double from...
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As the BBC warn: "The danger now is that President Trump, having amassed this powerful force close to Iran's borders, decides he must act or lose face, and a war begins with no clear end-state and with unpredictable and potentially damaging repercussions."
new-normal.com
The risk is very simple - that any US attack might lead Iran to close the Strait. If this happened, energy markets would suddenly flip from surplus to shortage. Prices could easily double from...
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As German Chancellor Merz emphasized, "We are confronted by a completely new geopolitical situation and we are willing to stand up to this geopolitical reality. But Europe will be able to hold its own only if we are competitive."
new-normal.com
There was a full turn-out of European leaders last Wednesday for the European Industrial Summit in Antwerp
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As German Chancellor Merz emphasized, "We are confronted by a completely new geopolitical situation and we are willing to stand up to this geopolitical reality. But Europe will be able to hold its own only if we are competitive."
new-normal.com
There was a full turn-out of European leaders last Wednesday for the European Industrial Summit in Antwerp
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If Europe's chemical industry disappears, the whole economy will be at risk. This week's Antwerp Summit needs to focus on kick-starting its recovery.
new-normal.com
This week's Antwerp Summit with leading EU policymakers will be key to the future of Europe's chemical industry.
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Chemicals contribute to 96% of manufactured goods. So if the Commission and governments don't now provide major support at this time of crisis, the whole European economy will be at risk.
new-normal.com
9% of Europe's chemical capacity is already scheduled for closure. Petrochemicals is the worst impacted, with 14% of capacity closing
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Europeans are the only ones still operating on the basis of a rules-based international order. As France’s President Macron warned last week, we need “to protect our chemical industry, our industries – because they are being literally killed."
new-normal.com
"The UK is losing the industry that makes everything". And it's not just the UK chemical industry that's at risk. The whole European chemical industry faces the same crisis.
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Europeans are the only ones still operating on the basis of a rules-based international order. As France’s President Macron warned last week, we need “to protect our chemical industry, our industries – because they are being literally killed."
new-normal.com
"The UK is losing the industry that makes everything". And it's not just the UK chemical industry that's at risk. The whole European chemical industry faces the same crisis.
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Future demand for chemicals is no longer going to be based on a multiple of GDP growth. Instead, companies need to develop new offerings that help customers to ‘do more with less’.
new-normal.com
Today's crisis means that companies need to find new growth strategies.
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Stimulus debt has created a K-shaped economy. The top 10% of US earners account for nearly half of all consumer spending, as the chart shows from JP Morgan.
new-normal.com
Central banks can carry on pumping out as much money as they want. But businesses can't sell to people who haven't been born.
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The best story you’ll read this Christmas
bbc.com
An arrangement Rob and Dianne Parsons thought would last a few days ended up changing their lives.
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2008 saw the US subprime crisis become the Great Financial Crisis. Now 2026 seems set to be the year when China hopes to solve its 'subprime on steroids' crisis. But its fundamental problem - the lack of babies - seems as far from solution as ever.
new-normal.com
China's property crisis has been building for years. Last week, Beijing's Central Economic Work Conference finally decided that resolving it was the top priority in 2026
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US automakers have been around a long time. It is too early to write them off. But their high prices, Trump's EV restrictions and their lack of robotaxi options suggests they risk running out of road sooner rather than later.
new-normal.com
The major US automakers risk running out of road. Their US model line-up is being thrown into confusion by Trump's reversal of Biden's support for US electrification.
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President Trump's trade war has ended the globalisation era, which began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Companies now have to change their business models. This means a focus on supply chain resilience and on being close to one’s customers
new-normal.com
President Trump's trade war has ended the globalisation era, which began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. This means companies now have to change their business models if they are going to...
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The chemical industry has been one of the big winners from the move to free trade and globalisation. It now has to change its business model if it is going to survive.
new-normal.com
President Trump's tariffs change chemical industry business models. It is already operating well below capacity,
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The chemical industry has been one of the big winners from the move to free trade and globalisation. It now has to change its business model if it is going to survive.
new-normal.com
President Trump's tariffs change chemical industry business models. It is already operating well below capacity,
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