Right now, I don’t see that kind of move in the market. That doesn’t mean it can’t start now. When it comes, it won’t build slowly. It shows up all at once. You don’t analyze it. You recognize it.

I think that’s the difference between real moves and hype-dumps. In real moves, there are no fake bounces. Up doesn’t pause. Down doesn’t recover. Time feels different too. Hours pass without noticing. “Later” is the wrong word in those moments.

Same feeling, opposite direction. The day LUNA collapsed, I stayed on the screen for hours. Phones kept ringing. Some friends shorted. Others tried to buy. And it was clear: This wasn’t a pullback. This wasn’t technical. Liquidity was gone, and nothing was coming to save it.

Price wasn’t fighting. Sells didn’t matter. Copies of PEPE were everywhere. No one was forcing narratives. It was obvious the market had already decided.

When PEPE launched on Ethereum, I was watching the screen. From the first hours, it was clear this wasn’t a normal hype. Not indicators — the environment felt different.

There are things real profitable traders don’t explain. Not because they’re secret — but because you only understand them by being there.

The bottom doesn’t always come. But when you miss the Bitcoin train, regret is almost guaranteed.

Perpetual futures markets remain thin. BTC OI still hasn’t recovered to earlier highs, funding is neutral, and long premiums remain deeply reduced. Leverage has largely cleared out. This quiet structure typically sets the stage for price recovery.

Market feels quiet - usually the signal the next move is up. On-chain buy pressure points to expansion. Buyers here often ride the next big surge.

Bitcoin shows early rebound signs: RSI is up, spot and ETF flows are improving, and futures are unwinding—but a drop to $75K is still possible. Liquidity is thin and conviction remains weak. Will bigger players step in to fuel a real recovery?

No matter which scenario plays out, one thing is clear: Bitcoin is entering the era where traditional index governance directly shapes crypto liquidity. The next move belongs to MSCI.

For analysts and creators, this is a rare macro–micro moment: index rules directly affecting digital-asset treasury strategies. If you track BTC, ETFs or flows, this belongs on your dashboard.

Key dates: • Dec 31, 2025 — consultation ends • Jan 15, 2026 — final decision • Feb 2026 — possible implementation Expect volatility around each milestone.

Bearish Scenario MSCI passes the rule and other index providers quietly follow. • Broader passive-fund selling • Less appetite for “BTC on balance sheet” • Narrative risk rises around corporate BTC reserves Delays momentum, but doesn’t break the cycle.

Base Case Scenario MSCI approves the rule, but only a few companies cross the 50% threshold — mainly MicroStrategy and some names in Japan/Korea. • Forced selling, but limited • Contained impact • Short-term BTC volatility Overall: disruption, not disaster.

Optimistic Scenario MSCI rejects or softens the proposal. Digital-asset treasury companies stay in major MSCI indexes. Result: • No passive-fund outflows • More institutional comfort with BTC-heavy balance sheets • Market sentiment improves A clean positive signal for BTC.

MSCI’s upcoming decision on excluding companies that hold 50%+ of their assets in Bitcoin or digital assets could be one of the most underrated catalysts of the next 12 months. Here are three scenarios I’m watching — and what they could mean for crypto.

$122M in longs wiped out in an hour. Institutions run this market now — they hunt retail liquidity for sport. If you’re still trading with leverage, you’re the prey.

Treasury cash just hit $900B, sucking up liquidity and sending repo rates higher. Usually not great for risk assets, but if things get too tight, the Fed might step in — which could be bullish later.

Seeing some de-risking vibes with around $1.2B flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs lately. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a short-term dip — but long-term sentiment’s still solid. Let’s keep an eye on those support levels and on-chain trends.