The Economic LongWave
@TheELongWave
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Exploring the Past, Forecasting the Future, Historian, Macroeconomist, LongWave Theorist, Navigating the Seas of Social, Political & Technological Change.
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Joseph Schumpeter, the author of Business Cycles, observed that the long wave is the single most important tool in economic forecasting.
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Trudeau has effectively killed the confidence to invest and to move to Canada over the past what took a century and half to build.
The Canadian economy will effectively start to decelerate and run into a liquidity and banking crisis.
"This fate is now sealed"!
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When did Canadians "vote" to give up its sovereignty for the global agenda?
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This was a "surprise". Canada's all-cause deaths from Jan-July 2010-2020.
Which includes
#covid19Canada
2020 YTD.
Deaths are "below" last year and the year before.
Where is the
#pandemic
?
#COVID19
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@FatEmperor
Italy "enacted" strict outdoor/indoor facemasks on Oct 10, 2020. The result.....
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Massive Freedom Rally in Toronto....I'm so proud to amongst the most culturally diverse political protestors of all ages and walks of life against the lockdowns. FREEDOM!!!
#freedom
#NoMoreLockdowns
#TorontoProtest
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Canada is at the end of the fourth stage before it collapses!
2024
In the fourth stage, countries become poorer and still think of themselves as rich.
This is the leveraging up phase – i.e., debts rise relative to incomes until they can’t anymore.
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Which province in Canada will be the first to come out of the dark age?
I just announced Texas is OPEN 100%.
EVERYTHING.
I also ended the statewide mask mandate.
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An update shows that 2024 remains the year economic winter will unfold.
Two reasons; one will be the continuing rising interest rates due to default risk; many are assuming rates will fall during a hard landing, which is only true during the spring to fall season; (1946-2023)
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When the Covid-19 narrative collapses, she will be honored for her bravery against tyranny.
22 US states & growing🌎. How do govts explain jurisdictions ending lockdowns/restrictions even prior to any Covid vaccine approval? How do govts explain existence of normal life with Covid but without mass testing/vaccination? 3 US states (+growing) banned all vaccine passports.
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Canadian Banks.
I have drawn a line in the sand, so to speak.
When the market breaks that level, the crisis will be closer to reality and awaken those who deny that Real Estate will eventually collapse.
Their focus on what impacts Real Estate has nothing to do with why we
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By 2024, it will become apparent that the real estate industry is a 🎩 Ponzi scheme that relied on 💰 record low rates and facilitated a false economy based on credit rather than productivity.
Diane Francis: Canada in deep economic trouble
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This gentleman reminds me of my Dad, (like all immigrants who escaped facist/communist countries).
They understand "tyranny" because they "experienced" it first hand. They know if you don't "fight back" you will continue to lose your freedoms! Violent civil unrest is inevitable!
Canadian police tried to shut down a POLISH church on Easter. The Polish have a PROFOUND understanding of totalitarianism (fascism, communism) and sent the police away!
#COVID1984
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Canada's Population 1964 and 2024.
Can you see the challenges ahead for our collective social programs based on a "standard population pyramid that radically changed post-1971?
Can you see the implications for Real Estate post-2024?
Where will "new net demand" come from?
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When I watch Dr. Julie Ponesse, I get a sense of compassion, common sense with wisdom coming through.
She makes me think... these are signals of a great educator.
Why is there increased pressure to vaccinate children?
Watch the full interview with
@TGranicAllen
@TheNewsForum_
here:
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I'm old enough to remember Ontario during the 1970s
No better place to live in the world.
Progress, opportunity fiscal responsibility, leadership, real wage growth, no real asset inflation.
Now watching move into a systemic economic collapse is surreal.
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Toronto Real Estate and simple math
Inflation is up 149% in Toronto since 1976.
Real Incomes are up 149% in Toronto since 1976.
Toronto Home prices have been up 1,840% since 1976.
One of these is out of line with history!
How is this mathematically possible?
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"How do you make poor people feel wealthy when wages are stagnant? You give them cheap loans."
Michael Lewis, The Big Short
The enslavement of debt and the illusion of wealth ensure the insolvency of the middle class in Canada as rising rates start to strain the real economy.
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Canada, The Next Economic Disaster Update
Part two!
Private Debt To GDP PEAKS before the collapse!
US 1929 (154%)
Japan 1989 (213%)
Canada Q3 2022 (217%) Still in play!
It's different this time!
Not only is Canada's private debt larger
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@_JordanVecchio
The phrase 'climate change deniers' lacks an impartial definition or practical usage.
It is a defamatory ad hominem term (with troubling parallels to Holocaust denial) employed to tarnish and stifle individuals questioning AGW consensus.
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Canada, COVID19 Cases shot up 308% yesterday!
Why?
Two charts
Ontario Public Health increases the PCR threshold for VOC from 30 to 35.
#COVID19Ontario
#COVID19
#covid19canada
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The Changing World Order
BRICS Countries Overtake the G7 in Share of World GDP.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) now provide 31.5% of global GDP, with further projected growth – while Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United
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TICK TOCK...
"They have lied uncontrollably from the beginning but the narrative is falling apart. It cannot last. The truth will be known.
The financial markets are right now giving us hints of what that is"
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Canada mortgage extensions will that work?
No!
Japan introduced a 100-year amortization in 1994.
Home prices fell another 40%.
Japan tried everything, QE, government spending, and moving interest rates to zero, while the Japanese deleveraged.
Gravity prevailed!
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Had a conversation with a Lawyer.
This is what we know as of Dec 2021.
For "now," they definitely can prove one instance of fraud, two cases of crimes against humanity, and those pushing the Build Back Better, treason against the state.
Think about that for a minute!
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The Trudeau government has effectively guaranteed the collapse of the Liberal party.
Rising inflation.
Rising cost of government.
Rising Home Prices
Rising interest rates.
Rising civil unrest.
The Canadian Dollar is no longer a Safe-Haven.
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@roccogalatilaw
There is no evidence to suggest that wearing masks will prevent the spread of infection in the general population.
Improper use of masks may, in fact, increase the risk of infection and do not act as an effective barrier when they are worn for extended periods of time. (IPCA)
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Toronto condo prices.
The 1989-1994 Real Estate collaspe, condo prices fell by 50%.
Post-2024 downturn will "exceed" that number as valuations are three times greater.
A 75% collapse would align prices within average historical values.
Ponzi Finance in real-time!
More than half of GTA condo investors losing money on properties, report says
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The "elephant" in the room that no one wants to discuss before economic spring unfolds?
The Finance industry is too large for the economy; it mostly usurps the wealth of the lower and middle class and fosters Ponzi Finance which is now reversing.
In time, we will witness half
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Ontario's New Lockdown Is The Definition Of Insanity
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@FoodProfessor
Eureka?
I have a better idea!
Start to investigate the government of Canada for causing "inflation."
This would not occur without the CBs printing press government's reckless spending.
Preventative medicine is the future; preventative "inflation" is coming!
#Gold
Standard
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This is a fascinating insight into economic history
How did Rome Fall?
"Rome collapsed in just 8.6 years."
By recreating the monetary system using coinage, I was able to answer the question – Gradually? Or Catastrophically? By assembling all the coinage, and testing it out, "
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CIBC's stock has fallen by 42% since the real estate market's peak in February 2022.
Prices will continue to plummet by over 90% as the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate) industry slowly deflates. Due to the high level of leverage in the Canadian economy and the wealth
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@CTVNews
Climate change is a natural phenomenon that has occurred throughout history.
It's essential to recognize the intelligence and understanding of Canadians when discussing this topic.
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@FatEmperor
Updated Linear Regression Model For Sweden. (Nov 02, 2020)
The "correlation" for rising cases and deaths still does not exist!
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I will articulate this again, that major civil unrest will increase.
In time, those who perpetuated these
#CrimesAgainstHumanity
will be brought to justice.
Five of those will be tried for treason against Canada.
#IStandWithJuliePonesse
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I have lived most of my life in Toronto. I have never witnessed such an abundance of beggars nor so many young individuals departing the city and province. The soaring costs of housing and rental properties are compelling industrious, ambitious youths to seek opportunities
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@CP24
A powerful woman rises to power, ready to take on the elite and the agenda.
May you stay true to your plan for the good of Italy.
Forza Italia
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Canada was "once" a very wealthy country, today it is solely dependent on debt and Real Estate to sustain the "illusion" of economic growth, this is coming to an end!
"A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.
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Once Economic Winter hits Canada, Canadians will ask if we should abolish The Bank Of Canada with its reckless currency debasement and money printing policy!
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You "must" find a way to be less dependent on the government.
They will be insolvent after 2024.
You will understand that as the process starts to unfold in 2022.
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@gbrangela
@Answers4Sean
I don't think I ever witnessed such justifiable anger.
My hope in time peace will come to your family...
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Rex Murphy: Will anyone apologize for falsely accusing truckers of attempted arson in Ottawa? via
@nationalpost
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Canada's Real Estate Bubble update!
I have inserted a target, history suggests it will overshoot to the downside.
This is based on every asset bubble in history (100+) and counting!
There are no exceptions!
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IT'S THE SAME OLD STORY; HISTORY REPEATS!
Globe and Mail July 15, 1988.
Eight months later, the historic "credit" bubble burst and wiped out speculators, and Olympia and York, as real estate prices collapsed by 25%, condos and high-end homes went on to fall by 50%
Notice the
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Canada, The Next Economic Disaster post-2024.
Updated!
The two greatest credit bubbles in history and Canada's ongoing bubble with data until Q3 2022.
Private Debt To GDP PEAKS before the collapse!
US 1929 (154%)
Japan 1989 (213%)
Canada Q3
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Q: How much will Canadian Banks And Real Estate collaspe?
A: History suggests 75%+
This means In time, ALL of the gains in real estate post-2000 will be erased!
The implications for Canadian Banks are dire!
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This time it's different
Private Debt To GDP is larger in Canada than in Japan in 1989!
Japan ran surpluses, and Canada run massive deficits.
Real Estate popped at 6%, and Canada at 3%.
Japan had a high savings rate, while Canada has a low saving rate.
The world was
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Canada, Sweden
#COVID19
Linear Regression Slope.
Hope-Simpson Flu Season Model. April 17, 2021.
Canada, Lockdowns, Sweden No Lockdowns.
Notice the cycle?
Sweden continues to improve all the while Canada has started to deteriorate.
Lockdown/facemask thesis is crumbling.
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The rise against the "dark empire" continues!!
"Shooting the vaccine bill gates is in my bloodstream
It's mind control.
There are aliens in the deep state"
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Canadians and "cognitive dissonance."
There is a "disbelief" when presented with data that Canada is in the throws of a massive credit bubble and eventual contraction that will impact our banking system to the same outcome!
Every bubble in history, over 100+ (I have an
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Canadian Real Estate and the Minsky Moment.
Minsky outlined three distinct phases in the credit cycle:
In the first phase, known as the hedge phase, economic actors borrow money to invest in creating goods to sell for profit.
In the second stage, the speculative phase, more
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The world is your research database.
Israel got it wrong
Sweden got it right.
Science!
#COVID19
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There is no geological evidence that Co2 has behaved in the past as a significant forcing mechanism for Climate Change.
Yet the public believes in this deception!
MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen laughs at the sheer lunacy of declaring trace CO2 to be a pollutant: "What kind pollutant is it? You get rid of it and you die".
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Real Estate bubbles!
"When the bulk of participants in the market is consumers who think of houses as shelter, prices are stable.
When a significant portion of participants in the market are speculators who believe in houses as investment items, prices soar and crash."
We
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Can anyone forward any data or research that imply vaccination prevents transmission?
The drug companies do not suggest this.
Where is this coming from outside of political mandates/agenda and social media bots?
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Canadian banks are down 24%, warning that defaults will only increase.
"Countries with high levels of household debt and a large share of borrowing issued at floating rates are more exposed to higher mortgage payments resulting in a higher risk of defaults. Canada, Australia,
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There are only two ways to fix this.
Either Real Estate Prices collapse (more than likely), or we raise the "real incomes" of Canadians, which will come from productivity gains with investment into the REAL ECONOMY!
The financialization of the economy has not served
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Toronto Inflation and Gold
So either Toronto home prices will have to fall to $298,435 (adjusted for Inflation and Incomes), or "GOLD" will have to rise to $12,000 in Canadian dollars.
One will be accurate in the future!
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The Greatest CITY Real Estate Bubbles in the World
Love this city, but the mentality of almost everyone regarding real estate is one for the record books.
Mother Nature will fix this in time!
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The
#COVID19
"narrative" we are in our "third wave" we must lockdown to "save lives".
Question for our "health experts"?
Diabesity is the 5th leading cause of death worldwide.
It's rising "exponentially".
"Officially" it's the 14th+ Wave.
Why are you not saving lives?
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@Matthew_Winkler
@JustinTrudeau
The "illusion of wealth" predicated on unproductive and unsustainable debt is not prosperity but Ponzi Finance.
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"Immigration" cannot offset Canada's falling fertility rate, as most immigrants' fertility rate falls in line with the rest of Canada once they live here because of inflation.
They now "cannot" afford homes, taxes are high, energy and food prices are high, and the secular rise
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Question Has Canada's real estate bubble burst?
Answer: It's slowly leaking... the bursting is in front of us!
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The governments are panicking, as the covid19 mania starts to move to the forefront of consciousness with the silent majority.
The enlightened was always ahead of the game, so to speak, but as with all mania they are ignored, as the Mania starts to peak a larger group of
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The Great Reset=The Great Leap Forward.
(An attempt at communism once again.)
Prove me wrong!
The Great Leap resulted in tens of millions of deaths, with estimates ranging between 15 and 55 million deaths.
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🇨🇦 Canadians should brace for a significant downturn in the housing market as the Five Year Yield hits a new "secular high." 📉
#FiveYearYield
#EconomicWinter2024
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The Bank Of Canada's job is to protect the currency's value.
It has failed
The Bank Of Canada's job is to prevent asset bubbles.
It has failed
The Bank Of Canada's job is to prevent "rapid inflation"
It has failed.
Now it wants to control the temperature of the planet?
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The Covid19 Mania...are we approaching its apex?
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Within minutes, I received two alerts that one Canadian bank hit a 52-week low, and Sprott Gold and Silver hit a 52-week high.
Fear is spreading through the market!
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@Tzeporah
Let me clarify your lack of understanding and provide a more accurate depiction of the global situation.
Consider this hypothetical scenario: Canada suddenly gets engulfed by a massive black hole, theoretically ending its CO2 emissions. China is increasing its output of CO2 and
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The Real Estate Default Cycle (Update)
Be prepared for the tough times ahead. We'll inevitably face increasing defaults, bankruptcy, and a harsh economic decline in the near future.
The Real Estate Cliff (post-2024) is looming; prepare by deleveraging before the economy forces
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The performance of the Bank of Canada is disastrous for Canadians. It's time for abolition!
Its policies have increased poverty, and the situation has been worsening significantly since 2022.
This trend will continue until around 2028 and potentially even into the 2030s.
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Canada, record credit bubble.
These two will meet in the future once again.
"Theoretically," if home prices remained stagnant it would take 44 years of rising incomes to catch up with prices.
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Canada, Japan Real Estate (Real Prices) Update 1970-Q3 2023
Sell 🇨🇦 real estate and purchase 🇯🇵 real estate?
Canada's Real Estate bear market will be "generational," lasting until the 2030s!
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Build back better—code for
#TheGreatReset
, communism 3.0
How many times do we have to witness the failure of this economic system?
#StopTheGreatReset
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Let's not live in "denial" that Canada will succumb to a "soft landing' it will be a hard landing, and it's best to be prepared for that collapse.
We have too much debt, too much finance, too much real estate, too much speculation, and too much optimism that CBs and government
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Listen to the whole two minutes.
The Canadian housing market has been showing signs of instability for some time now. The rapid rise in housing prices has led to the creation of a housing bubble, leading to severe financial consequences for the country. As this bubble bursts, it
Jeremy Grantham on the Real Estate Bubble:
He says it’s going to take time to see this play out like I have.
Great stuff.
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Bubbles, bubbles, bubbles.
But for some reason, one of the largest asset bubbles built on credit (Canada) will be immune from the same consequences because of (insert your favourite bullish argument here).
It's fascinating how people deny the reality of an impending collapse.
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After conducting a thorough analysis of numerous market histories, asset bubbles, Ponzi schemes, and speculative assets.
The model suggests that Canadian real estate prices are on the verge of experiencing a significant decline!
At least a 50% correction!
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After the collaspe, Canadians will question the "validity" of central banks.
Why?
Central banking was developed to control credit growth and instability, NOT to create asset bubbles and "paper wealth."
Should we get rid of all central banks?
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Japan bubble blow-off and its "deleveraging."
I suspect Canada could be where Japan was in 89-90.
A recession will confirm the downturn, and the 2nd leg of the real estate bubble will start to deflate.
Recall that Canada's private debt is "larger" than Japan's peak in 1990.
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As the 4th wave collaspes...society will address this very question.
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A warning about Real Estate prices and their collapse!
Monetary Waves always give the "illusion" of wealth until it collapses.
Prices inevitability will correct ALL of the gains since it began.
This suggests prices will fall back to the levels in 1984.
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We raised a generation who believes that Co2 is a pollutant.
How stupid has society become?
Sorry you can't claim your ignorance during the current information revolution.
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One of my former clients, a mortgage broker with over 30 years of experience in Toronto, expressed "that this is the worst conditions he has witnessed since he began."
I did not want to articulate that it would only get worse once the recession arrives.
#RealEstate
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India, Covid-19 New Daily Cases, with the percentage of those who are "partially" vaccinated.
Is there a correlation with the introduction of vaccinations?
#IndiaFightsCOVID19
#COVID19India
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The collapse of the mainstream party's in Canada is an inevitable trend!
There you have it folks. Canada’s shadow minister of health from
@CPC_HQ
’s self-proclaimed party of freedoms, rights, liberties. For mths,
@MichelleRempel
has disabled ALL commenting on her tweets & blocks anyone who questions her unscientific, unconstitutional & HARMFUL rhetoric
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I have added four new stocks/industries to my database (100+) that have collapsed by over 80%.
Silicon Valley Bank
First Republic Bank
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank.
Which will be the first Canadian bank to fall that much?
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What is occurring in Iceland? Covid-19 cases are skyrocketing to new levels!
The majority of people are "fully vaccinated".
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It has become clear that we, as a society, have failed to learn the lessons of history.
The housing market in Toronto has come to a standstill as the fuel for "credit inflation" is over.
Now, the illusion of wealth will be revealed!
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Most people are surprised that I rarely, if ever, read statements from the Bank Of Canada or the US FED.
Why?
It's noise; back in the day, managing capital, we learned that they follow the market, so I pay attention to the market, not their thesis on manipulating it.
Look 👇
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Japan a proxy for the future of Canada's Home prices?
Yes, Why?
Private Debt in Canada is 221% larger (mortgages) than the peak in Japan in 1990 of 214%.
Moreover, Japan ran a government surplus at its peak, while Canada currently runs a deficit.
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This trend and distrust of government and media will continue.
On the other side of the collapse, a Decentralized power structure will emerge.
"Can we really be shocked that public trust in the media continues to fall?"
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We are now moving into the 2nd year of the downturn in Real Estate; this is part of the wave where crises typically emerge.
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The farther prices rise above or fall below their fundamental value, the greater the energy store will be released in the resulting collapses. Once the reversal process begins, momentum develops, and markets generally overreact.
A 50% collaspe is inevitable; pattern recognition
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No one will dare suggest the obvious except a historian.
There is no housing crisis; millions bought homes they cannot afford with cheap credit.
Credit busts will fix this problem!
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The Next Economic Disaster
We are approaching the most dangerous time in history for Canadians since much of the (phantom) "wealth" is tied to Real Estate, linked to falling interest rates, that caused Ponzi Finance.
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