The Painful Lesson That Changed Everything 💔. My obsession with the markets and understanding manias stems from a brutal but invaluable education received in February 1989. I purchased a condominium at what turned out to be the absolute peak of the market 📈. What followed

🧵 The LongWave Reality: . Why ALL Gains From Financialization Will Be Reversed (1980s to present). Let me be crystal clear about where we LongWave students stand—and why our analysis differs from mainstream thinking about the upcoming bear market. 📊. 🎯 Our Core Thesis: When an

🧵 The Credit Bubble Delusion: . Why We Always Think "This Time Is Different". 💭 Think of it like a balloon—you keep blowing air into it, and it gets bigger and bigger, but eventually? . POP! That's every credit bubble in history. 🔄 The cycle is predictable: .• Easy credit

We are entering Economic Winter. But don’t fear it—understand it. ❄️🌬️. Economic Winter is not just a time of collapse—it's a season of cleansing. It clears out the rot:. – Speculative bubbles 🫧. – Zombie companies 🧟‍♂️. – Broken institutions 🏦. – Excessive debt chains 📉

🚨₿ Bitcoin vs Toronto Real Estate. You asked, here are the results. What do you think, is Toronto Real Estate in a bubble or is Bitcoin? . BREAKING: Toronto real estate loses 99.997% of its value when measured in Bitcoin. The greatest wealth transfer in human history

The Bottom Line 🎯. This chart telegraphs that Canada is experiencing the classic symptoms of a late-stage Kondratieff wave: productivity stagnation, diminishing returns to traditional investments, and the growing pains of economic transformation. The economy is essentially

The Great Divergence: 2014-2025 📊. Canada is treading Water. Canada's GDP Per Capita 1981-Q1 2025. The most striking feature is the dramatic departure from the exponential trendline, which begins around 2014. For over three decades, Canada's GDP per capita has followed a

Toronto’s housing bubble isn’t just popping—it’s entering a long, grinding bear market. From 4.4× income in 1976 to 17.8× in 2022. Even now at 14.6×, we’re way above sanity. Real incomes rose 15%… home prices 512%! . History demands mean reversion. This won’t be quick.

Grateful to Grok and @xAI for including my handle in their list of top real estate feeds! .Thank you for the recognition.

🌊 The LongWave Is Not Just Collapse—It's the Catalyst for Renewal 🌅. Most people only see the Winter Phase of the LongWave as destruction: defaults, disillusionment, and decay. But they miss the more profound truth:. Winter is not the end. It's a necessary clearing. Much like

The bubble's bursting may ultimately prove to be a necessary cleansing process, clearing the way for more sustainable, equitable housing systems aligned with the emerging technological and social realities of the fifth Kondratiev wave 🌅.

The data suggests we're witnessing the end of an era - the financialized, speculation-driven housing market of the fourth wave is giving way to whatever comes next. For Toronto residents, investors, and policymakers, understanding these long-wave dynamics is crucial for.

As we enter Kondratiev's economic winter, the creative destruction process will likely restructure not only housing markets but also entire social and economic relationships. The question isn't whether Toronto's bubble will correct, but how severe that Correction will be and what.

Conclusion: The Great Rebalancing Ahead ⚖️. Toronto's housing bubble represents a perfect storm of converging economic cycles, technological disruption, and socioeconomic forces. The 17.8x price-to-income ratio is not just a number—it's a symptom of deeper structural imbalances.

Long-term Structural Changes. Land use reform to increase supply. Tax system overhaul to reduce speculation. Housing finance restructuring to prevent future bubbles. Immigration policy adjustment to balance supply and demand.

Policy Implications and Social Responses 🏛️. The socioeconomic forces unleashed by this bubble will likely drive significant policy changes:. Immediate Responses. Emergency housing measures to address the affordability crisis. Banking sector stabilization to prevent systemic risk.

Structural Transformation. New ownership models (cooperative, social housing).Regulatory revolution is fundamentally changing market structure. Technology disruption is altering housing demand patterns. Demographic shifts are reducing long-term demand.👇

Chaotic Collapse (50-70% price decline). Credit crisis triggering forced selling. Bank failures requiring government bailouts. Social unrest as middle-class wealth evaporates. Political instability as housing becomes a central issue.

Government intervention to prevent systemic crisis. Slow economic adjustment with manageable social costs.

🧵Toronto Real Estate Bubble: 📷 . Part 2. The Economic Winter Scenario ❄️. As we transition into Kondratiev's winter phase, Toronto's housing market faces several potential scenarios:. Orderly Correction (30-40% price decline). Gradual deleveraging over 5-7 years