Tasha Keeney
@TashaARK
Followers
206K
Following
204
Media
1K
Statuses
14K
Dir. of Investment Analysis & Institutional Strategies @ARKInvest. Cover Autonomy (🚗,🚜,✈️,🤖🛞) & Additive Manufacturing. Disclosure https://t.co/CfmviBEuqw
Joined December 2013
Tesla is in discussion with a major automaker about licensing FSD. This is not surprising in the wake of failed efforts like ArgoAI at Ford. Autonomy is hard, it requires vast amounts of data, and I believe many automakers will fail to achieve it on their own.
186
679
6K
Removing autonomous driving & any form of ride-hail, which we believe will drive >60% of Tesla's value over the next 5 years, our 2026 price target would become roughly $500/share (post split) based on EVs alone, more than a 4X increase from current price.
496
515
4K
Tesla plans to start ride-hail next year and already testing capability in California. This is huge! At 10/10, we heard unsupervised FSD next year, but this is a confirmation that they can start a ride-hail service as well. Autonomous ride-hail should unlock a $10T+ opportunity.
100
468
4K
The Hertz deal could offer free advertising for Tesla and the opportunity for a partner in robotaxi fleet management/maintenance down the line.
176
281
3K
Our updated Tesla model is now out! Autonomous driving likely will be one of the most life-changing AI unlocks in history, and quite meaningful for Tesla shareholders:
306
525
3K
1/ Our latest Tesla price target is out! $2,000 per share in 2027. Check it out! Similar to last year, we believe autonomy will represent a significant portion of Tesla’s future enterprise value.
529
517
3K
From our last year's Big Ideas report, but still very relevant today: Autonomous vehicles could be one of the most economically impactful innovations in history .
87
265
2K
When Elon says Tesla is the only automaker that could sell cars for zero margin today and makeup for it in autonomy earnings later, here's why that matters. Autonomous mobility platform operators will be a Goliath in the future auto value chain, worth much more than OEMs alone.
254
378
2K
And so it starts. I think the supercharging network is the gateway drug for other Tesla platforms. Licensing autopilot and FSD next?
191
170
2K
1/ Pay attention to this. Clearly today's reporting and subsequent market reaction was yet another sign that I think many analysts are not factoring in the autonomy opportunity into Tesla price expectations.
Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8.
67
246
2K
Tesla has been testing a ride-hail service for ~1 year. This is a monumental step forward. Read more in our newsletter.
Tesla is launching a ride-hail service in 2025, which we believe will unlock a multi-trillion dollar robotaxi opportunity. Read our thoughts on Tesla’s Q3 Earnings below!.
50
224
2K
Excited for 10/10! Most looking forward to software and app updates for the Tesla robotaxi platform. While the Cybercab should enable a lower cost structure, I don't expect it to be a bottleneck for robotaxi launch. How will launch work? My thoughts:
107
277
2K
Critiques that Optimus's capabilities today are nothing new seem to miss the point that Tesla is uniquely well set up to build a foundation model of how intelligent machines move through physical space and leverage that model for applications outside of autonomous driving.
174
203
2K
Why is Xpeng using lidar? Big deviation from copying Tesla. Xpeng says it will greatly improve accuracy - I believe it, but can severely limit scalability for their autonomous approach. Did they realize they couldn't make their Tesla-copy approach work?
126
126
2K
On 10/10, Elon said that Tesla could charge ~$0.40 per mile at scale for robotaxi service. Here's why that matters. With a lower price per mile, the market for ride-hail expands far past what Uber and Didi occupy today, reaching what could be a >$10T market
95
300
2K
At Tesla's Investor Day, for the first time we saw the accident rate per million miles driven in FSD. Previously the Tesla Safety Report included only Autopilot statistics. 🧵1/10
53
297
2K
And it looks like there is a recent inflection point here as well, perhaps due to the free month FSD trials.
65
118
2K
Check out our latest Tesla valuation blog, now live! Notable updates this year include Tesla's increased capital efficiency (work from @skorusARK) and our latest autonomous driving expectations. Thanks to the full ARK team for all the hard work!
127
365
2K
Tesla using in-vehicle compute for other purposes would create another way to get more utilization / a revenue stream off of the car, even if the owner hasn't signed up for the robotaxi network. Personal cars are used <=~5% of the day now by human drivers so lots of room.
156
161
2K
#3Dprinting unlocks the full potential of AI design. Seems like a lot of manufacturing operations should eventually use 3DP in some form, whether it be models, parts or tools. For a $10-15B industry today, I see a lot of untapped opportunity.
49
171
2K
If I've bored you so far, here's why you should pay attention to autonomous cars: we think this could be the most impactful innovation in history. Autonomous ride-hail could add roughly $26 trillion to global GDP by 2030.
73
226
2K
Wow!.
Can Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 11.3.3 handle real ride-sharing rides? Let's find out.
53
199
2K
Had a blast nerding out with @farzyness and @HansCNelson.
Just had the pleasure to speak with @TashaARK re: their latest $TSLA research. Podcast out later today.
63
67
2K
1) Cruise imploded. It does look as if the company took on more risk than peers like Waymo. 👇
70
183
1K
This past week, I had the opportunity to ride in a Waymo autonomous vehicle in Los Angeles. Currently, there's a waitlist to get access to Waymo service in LA. Once in, the wait time for my ride was notably longer than an Uber—over 10 minutes compared to Uber's 2 minutes.
59
138
2K
Restrictions on the eyes off "level 3" systems are ridiculous. 1) Make sure you're on the 0.2% of roads where it works 2) The car can only travel 40mph or slower on highways 3) You can't be the only car on the road (!)
121
160
1K
#Autonomous cars are coming sooner than you think. Don't just take my word for it, listen to @elonmusk on the latest @ARKInvest #FYIpodcast. Thanks again for sitting down with @CathieDWood and me!
91
254
1K
👇.
Nice to see a nod to a future ride-hail app. Stay tuned for our updated Tesla valuation model in the coming weeks. 👀
40
88
1K
Come work with me at @ARKInvest ! We're hiring an associate to work with me and @skorusARK . Help us research autonomous cars, robots, rockets, 3D printing, and more.
138
95
1K
Years ago I wrote about how the supercharger network could be a profitable standalone business. Today it's clear that chargers are an attractive asset for partners. This move makes sense for BP.
BREAKING: Oil giant bp to buy $100 million of Superchargers from Tesla. As early as 2024, Tesla chargers will be installed across the bp pulse network, including at key bp, Amoco, ampm; and Thorntons-branded sites, TravelCenters of America locations and at bp pulse’s large-scale
49
138
1K
Another flip flop in Apple's strategy for autonomous. A vertically integrated strategy has clear benefits, but I am skeptical of Apple's ability to pull this off given the history of the project.
138
101
1K
Autonomous taxis could have the biggest impact on economic productivity of any innovation in history. I've tallied the losses (ex: fewer personal auto sales) and the gains (ex: productivity uplift from freed time to work or consume) in my latest blog:
78
241
1K
Why does it matter that Tesla has more than doubled the size of its AI training compute? It helps accelerate the road to robotaxis. Tesla has been compute constrained, as opposed to peers that could be data constrained.
55
141
1K
This is why cost per mile for autonomy matters. Lowering the cost expands the ride-hail market significantly.
26
161
1K
Looks like US luxury auto sales were up in June, thanks to Tesla. $TSLA June US sales up 156% YOY, Porsche +6%, BMW +4%, Mercedes +1%, and every other luxury automaker's sales decreased. Tesla's volumes account for nearly all of the category's gains. Demand? ✔️. (source: Wards).
33
175
1K
Why did GM cancel its robotaxi? It never got to a safety threshold that was better than humans and one bad accident killed the project. But on average, Waymo is safer than the average human driver, and Tesla's FSD data suggests it is as well. The advantage of having lots of data
71
185
1K
Just published an open source extract from $TSLA valuation. Use your own assumptions and critiques are welcome. You can even delete the autonomous opportunity entirely if you think I'm full of 💩.
115
211
1K
Elon said that autonomous driving could be the biggest value increase of any asset in history. How? Check our autonomous white paper: We believe autonomous ridehail could generate recurring sales w/software-like margin.
54
163
982
Ford's getting access to Tesla superchargers. Years ago, we speculated that Tesla could turn a profit on the supercharger network (even before it began charging for access)
31
66
754
5/ While it's incredibly hard to predict exactly when breakthroughs will happen, the future cash flows off of global robotaxis should still be worth $1-2T today, even if its a year (or two!) late:
22
95
919
Tesla has access to more data in a single day than Waymo has in its entire library.
48
159
924
It's out! Our latest Big Ideas deck. GRWM, as we embark on the most pivotal year yet for robotaxis. But first, haven't I been saying this for a while? Yes. Aside from Waymo, many have promised autonomy and failed, as shown below. This year, Tesla committed to a June launch.
Say hello to tomorrow. “Big Ideas 2025” is here to share ARK's insights on the technologies shaping the future. Download now:
40
128
934
Catch us tomorrow at 5pm as @wintonARK @skorusARK @p_ferragu and I chat about Tesla and the future of autonomous ride-hail
47
89
851
2/ We've previously estimated robotaxis could account for roughly 2/3 of Tesla's future enterprise value. In fact, we're in the process of updating this work. Stay tuned 👀.
38
87
870
Had a great time again with @farzyness @HansCNelson and @TeslaLarry. Check out our 10/10 takeaways below, including what I thought was a great Robovan discussion.
Tasha from @ARKInvest shares her eye-opening day at Tesla's Robotaxi Event. With @HansCNelson @TeslaLarry @TashaARK. @elonmusk @CathieDWood
26
70
839
Imagine Tesla launches ridehailing as COVID-19 subsides. Will have pent up driver demand as many will want extra work & Lyft isn’t accepting new drivers. Operating cost of Model 3 is 2/3 that of a Camry, so better driver pay &Tesla can take higher rake. Big problem for Uber &Lyft.
165
91
792
Not surprised about this delay. If the plan is to wait until 2026 to produce highway-only autonomy, the project should be scrapped yesterday.
70
59
789
Tesla's also demonstrating how to set up the winning autonomous model for other industries. Vertical integration with in-house talent and amassing more data than peers for corner cases should prove a pretty killer formula for autonomy in construction, agriculture, and elsewhere.
21
78
748
In our original work, we estimated that an autonomous ride-hail service could be priced as low as $0.25 per mile for consumers, while still leaving room for operator profits.
23
73
724
$TSLA cars in china holding nearly 30% more of their value than other EVs.
17
81
702
Big news for Cruise, Waymo, but also the autonomous vehicle industry as a whole. Our research suggests that autonomous vehicles will lower the cost of vehicle transport for consumers and decrease accident rates by over 80%. Public support should be obvious.
Thrilled to announce that the California Public Utilities Commission just approved @Cruise for fared operation 24/7 across all of San Francisco!. It’s a huge milestone for the AV industry, but even more importantly a signal to the country that CA prioritizes progress over our.
23
73
697
I would argue that autonomous cars, not infrastructure, is the most viable solution to pedestrian deaths. We really need them in the US!
65
60
676
6/ The first robotaxis likely won't be autonomous everywhere, all weather, all scenarios, but even a level 4 (some remote human help, a small % of the time) autonomous taxi could still be less than half the cost of driving your personal car.
23
62
630
1/ Waymo is on the cusp of making history with a fully commercial robotaxi launch. It must be VERY confident in fully driverless rides to make this push.
21
114
624
Tesla confirmed that its in the early days of preparing for robotaxi commercialization with driver profiles and shared key features. When Tesla first launches, they will be in every piece of the ecosystem that we've outlined below in our Big Ideas report.
24
66
617
Really looking forward to this.
Part 2 of Elon's Story starts with a little announcement. "There's quite a significant foundational rewrite in the Tesla Autopilot system that's almost complete" –– @elonmusk
15
49
616
In case you missed it, here's the ARK newsletter with our Tesla Investor Day takeaways. Most notably, many seemed to miss the new details Tesla unveiled last week - not us. Check it out:
27
86
556
We conservatively assumed that Tesla does not sell Optimus externally in our model, and that Optimus manufacturing savings modestly impact Tesla’s costs in single digit percentages over the next five years.
15
34
568
1/ Hot off the press! Our latest Big Ideas deck. We're living in a new age of AI and I expect last year's breakthroughs to accelerate progress in autonomous driving.
A tradition since 2017, “Big Ideas” is ARK’s seminal document, offering a comprehensive analysis of technological convergence and its potential to revolutionize industries and economies at a global scale. #BigIdeas2024 is now available! Download the report today.
21
80
564
We still believe that Tesla could leverage its learnings from robotaxis to become a leader in embodied AI, although the financial benefits may extend past our five-year forecast.
17
39
556
1/ Here's why we think Tesla and every other automaker should pursue autonomous driving - the market likely will be worth much more than the auto market today. We estimate autonomous ridehailing will be worth $9T, or more than today's energy sector, in the next ten years.
What do we think is #Tesla’s potential trajectory during the next five years? Learn about our latest model and more from @TashaARK, @skorusARK, and ARK's Director of Research @wintonARK.
25
133
549
I just published this Medium piece. In short, autonomous ride-hail is a big opportunity - $11-12T globally. And we think there's more demand support than we had anticipated for price points that are above our $0.25/mile estimate for at-scale robotaxis.
40
81
532
Elon mentioned taking cars X autonomous opportunity to value $TSLA. Here's how we did it at ARK:
16
68
516
European autos seem to be the most in trouble. The US and China have more aggressively pursued autonomous driving and electric cars. Seems like Europe will see the first wave of consolidation and company failure.
32
113
515
VW's CEO is right. Traditional automakers need to act fast as the industry moves toward all electric, autonomous cars. Cutting fuel cell investment and focusing on battery electric is a good move.
25
56
520
Huge. This is a key enabler for cost efficient drone delivery, which will totally change how you and I live and get goods.
29
75
493
I'll be on Twitter Spaces at 5PM today with @wintonARK and @skorusARK talking about autonomous & Tesla. Tune in!
48
49
485
I want to hear more about the AutoX robotaxis. What do they cost and what is the points system? Can customers take videos?
33
40
482
All in, the addressable market for autonomous ride-hail could be $11 trillion.
12
35
460
Looking forward to hearing more about autonomy on the Tesla Semi platform. Once again, Tesla will have an advantage relative to other autonomous truck companies with an install base of vehicles to collect data for training.
29
30
458
I'm on a Drones Panel for the @WorldBank 's Transforming Transportation Conference today at 11:30AM ET. Should be fun! Check it out live here: #TTDC21.
35
36
446
👇.
Designed to be a pleasure to use for attentive users.
11
24
460
Check out our latest thoughts on $TSLA.
25
55
444
Surface streets have more frequent accident rates than highways. Adjusting the national average and the "Non Autopilot" rate given in Tesla's Safety Report, a Tesla in FSD looks ~5X safer than a Tesla in manual mode 👀‼️3/10
4
43
433
Looks like both Cruise and Waymo are shortening time to launch in a new city to 3-4 months.
42
57
410
Share of new debt transitioning into delinquency for auto loans in June ticked higher than pre pandemic levels. 👀The transition to electric transport could spell doom for loans backing gas powered cars.
25
63
407
Takeaway: the low cost and convenience of autonomous ride-hail should win share of miles, even from today's car owners. Consumers already pay up for convenience. And at its lowest price points, autonomous travel is even cheaper than the marginal cost to drive a personal car.
3
23
411
Automakers that don't successfully execute on #EVs or #autonomous tech will likely go out of business. The departure of BMW's CEO signals just how important this transformation is for the auto industry. h/t @trucksvc
17
92
409
@SawyerMerritt @chinanderm And for more information on how we get to our range of Tesla price targets, here's our research blog:
14
41
404
Please read through our blog, take a look at our model, and we look forward to hearing your thoughts. Huge thanks to the whole ARK team, including @dmaguireARK, for getting this piece out!.
22
20
409
The electric autonomy song of traditional autos:.🎵🎶.Just started a new project on EVs/AVs.Oh no! That’s not working….Okay, we'll invest in a startup.Oh no! That’s not working….Nevermind, we'll partner with another auto.Oh no! That’s not working….🎵🎶.And again from the top!!.
Audi announces project "Artemis" to accelerate development of electric vehicles in . checks watch. normal development timeframe of 4 years.
16
58
403
7/ So sure, Waymo is late. Service is still not open for any member of the public quite yet, although Waymo promises that's soon to follow. But make no mistake, we're on the edge of the most significant change in mobility in over 100 years.
32
18
394
My new paper is out! We expect autonomous mobility will radically lower costs, benefitting consumers and completely reshaping habits. This could be one of the most impactful innovations in economic history. Thanks to @skorusARK for his work on ✈️&🔋
44
59
375
3/ As you can see @DMaguireARK and @skorusARK analysis shows that a robotaxi offers the highest return for batteries at Tesla.
14
25
380
Looks like Mercedes has denied that it's giving up on autonomous. But I think that yielding to a technology player like Waymo is probably the best move.
18
26
372
3D printing could be very useful for COVID-19 related part shortages. What a better use case than life-saving ventilator parts 🙌🏻 h/t @yassineARK !.
An Italian hospital ran out of ICU valves. A local biz brought a 3D printer to the hospital, redesigned & produced the valves in a few hours. “At the time of writing, 10 patients are accompanied in breathing by a machine that uses a 3D printed valve.”.
8
64
374
2/ The more Teslas on the road that are autonomy-capable, the better, because each can become a recurring revenue generating robotaxi, a business which we think will generate much more cash flow than electric vehicle sales alone.
22
19
375
Now, we estimate that there should be substantial demand at higher price points. Note that today's ride-hail services average $2/mile in western markets, higher than consumer's perceived value of time AND higher than the marginal cost to drive your own car.
7
17
368
With this context, the relative move in Uber following the event seems quite ridiculous.
36
14
380
Just wrote about Tesla's decision to remove radar in our latest newsletter. Would love to hear anyone's thoughts/ experiences with the tradeoff of including additional sensors to fuse into an autonomous tech stack.
38
42
359