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@THESHREWDFOX
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TRADING FX MAJORS, COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, AND BTC WITH POST-COFFEE CLARITY AND MACRO COMMENTARY.
TRACKING FLOWS, GMT+1.
Joined April 2021
THAT QUICK PPI POP IS FADING OUT. THE DOLLAR IS NOW IN DECLINE, GIVING BACK GAINS.
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RT @lebas_janney: Good time to remember that the U-mich inflation survey is like 8 consumers sitting on their respective couches.
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RETAIL SALES OBSERVATIONS: HIGHLIGHTS.
*US JULY RETAIL SALES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. 0.5% .*US JULY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. 0.3% . *US JULY RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS, GAS RISE 0.2% M/M; PREV. 0.6% .*US JULY RETAIL 'CONTROL GROUP' SALES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. 0.4%.
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CONSIDER PROTECTING $GOLD / $XAUUSD POSITIONS AHEAD OF WEEKEND. TRUMP-PUTIN NEWSFLOW OVER THE WEEKEND COULD SPARK VOLATILITY AND GAPS.
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HOT PPI PRINT PROVIDING TAILWIND FOR MY USDCAD LONG AT 1.37500.
TOOK A RISK, LONG USDCAD AT 1.37500. PITTING A SOFT DOLLAR AGAINST A WEAKENING OIL-LINKED CAD. PLAYING SHORT-TERM RELATIVE WEAKNESS.
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FED MUSALEM CONTINUING HIS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HAWKISH TILT. RULES OUT 50 BASIS POINT CUT ENTIRELY (AS DID FED DALY).
Choir of FED Speakers today:. Musalem — Neutral to hawkish, generally cautious. Waller — Was very dovish, previously pushing for July rate cuts. Daly — Neutral to dovish, open to a fall rate cut, in the majority camp.
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PPI OBSERVATIONS: THE STANDOUTS.
HOT PRINTS.
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HOT PRINTS.
*US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. 2.5% .*US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.9% M/M; EST. 0.2% . *US JULY CORE PPI RISES 0.9% M/M; EST. 0.2% .*US JULY CORE PPI RISES 3.7% Y/Y; EST. 2.9%.
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TOOK A RISK, LONG USDCAD AT 1.37500. PITTING A SOFT DOLLAR AGAINST A WEAKENING OIL-LINKED CAD. PLAYING SHORT-TERM RELATIVE WEAKNESS.
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MARKETS SO FAR:. AUSTRALIA LABOUR DATA CAME IN MOSTLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. 4.2% UNEMPLOYMENT; EXP 4.2%. UK GDP M/M CAME IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED 0.4% M/M; EXP 0.2% M/M. ALL EYES NOW ON US PPI AND LABOR DATA.
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UNEXPECTED HAWKISH TILT FROM FED GOOLSBEE. REPEATEDLY CITED INFLATION RISKS. MARKETS DON'T CARE, SEPTEMBER RATE CUT IS A LOCK.
EYES ON CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT GOOLSBEE TODAY. HIS COMMENTS AS A VOTING MEMBER WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
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BESSENT CALLING FOR A REPEAT OF SEPT 2024 WHICH SAW A 50 BASIS POINT CUT.
BESSENT: RATE CUTS COULD START WITH 50 BPS IN SEPT.
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EYES ON CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT GOOLSBEE TODAY. HIS COMMENTS AS A VOTING MEMBER WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
LIGHT DOCKET TODAY. THREE FED SPEAKERS ON TAP: BARKIN, GOOLSBEE, AND BOSTIC.
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POST-CPI DOLLAR WEAKNESS CONTINUES. DXY SLIPS BACK BELOW ITS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE (RED) AND THE 98-HANDLE.
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25 BPS CUT BY SEPTEMBER IS FULLY LOCKED IN. MARKETS EXPECT ~70 BPS BY YEAR-END.
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LIGHT DOCKET TODAY. THREE FED SPEAKERS ON TAP: BARKIN, GOOLSBEE, AND BOSTIC.
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ASIA SESSION WRAP: . JAPAN PPI (YOY) DROPS FOR FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH. AUSTRALIAN WAGE GROWTH WARMER THAN RBA PROJECTIONS.
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THE NEW BLS HEAD, EJ ANTONI, IS CRITICIZING THE METHODOLOGY OF MONTHLY JOB REPORTS. HE ADVOCATES FOR A QUARTERLY SCHEDULE, ACCEPTING THE LAG FOR IMPROVED ACCURACY.
EJ Antoni: Until the jobs numbers are corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data - Fox Business.
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