How pre-existing forms of tribal order assumes prominence and functions, yet remains susceptible to changes in times of war. My article, ‘Tribalocracy: Tribal Wartime Social Order and Its Transformation in Southern Syria’, is out at @ISQ_Jrnl . 🧵

#Turkey’s manoeuvres in #Syria & #Libya are key components in a bold strategy to strengthen its position and secure long-term leverage in the #Mediterranean —but the path is not without challenges. My latest with @emad_badi for @AtlanticCouncil @ACMideast .

A few Syrians shared with me that they were surprised to see what they thought were casual chats with foreign journalists quoted in reports. A reminder: ethical principles—such as informed consent & explaining the purpose & potential use of interviews—apply in Syria as elsewhere.

3/ The process will involve a representative from the Ministry of Defence, signalling HTS’s intent to co-opt, rather than confront, pre-existing civilian and military structures in #Daraa.

2/ Local armed factions will begin reorganising, focusing on dismantling or absorbing smaller autonomous groups—through persuasion or coercion—while excluding individuals with criminal records. Efforts will prioritise weapons collection, border security & maintaining local order.

🧵 1/ Yesterday, a meeting was held between representatives of armed factions in #Daraa and Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS. Previous tensions were reportedly diffused, with an agreement reached to integrate local factions into the military institution.

4/ For many local stakeholders, unless HTS recognises Daraa’s unique postwar trajectory and adjusts its strategy to engage with the region’s distinctive dynamics and power structures, the likelihood of escalating tensions in southern Syria will continue to rise.

3/ This resistance seems to be fuelled by HTS's wartime history, marked by tense relations with many local armed factions, and its efforts to rebuild its capabilities through covert activities in the border region following the regime's return to #Daraa in 2018.

2/ Meetings indicate agreement on broad principles, such as integration into a military institution. However, many leaders perceive HTS’s approach as a coercive effort to impose its institutional model & cadres, disregarding or failing to co-opt pre-existing structures.

🧵 Challenges to #HTS approach in southern #Syria:. 1/ Meetings between Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS and many leaders of armed factions in #Daraa Governorate seem to reveal a broad yet fragile consensus that conceals underlying tensions.

Syrians are closely monitoring every report published and will expose and challenge any narrative that misleads the audience and disrespects the suffering of real victims. Great work by @VeSyriaE exposing @CNN misleading report by @clarissaward .

RT @emad_badi: Even if not staged, why is a white journalist turning a man’s trauma into a spectacle? Guiding him out of prison like a savi….

Local factions in #Daraa launched an operation to capture al-Rifaie. His recent shift against the regime is viewed as opportunistic and does not absolve him of the crimes he committed. #Daraa will witness similar operations in the coming days.

Map shows locations of #Israeli airstrikes in #Daraa and #Quneitra, which targeted military sites and weapons stockpiles. Israeli forces reportedly conducted an incursion in Quneitra & crossed the disengagement line into the Yarmouk Basin in southwestern Daraa.

49/ Local armed factions announce full control of the city of al-Sanamayn and the 9th Division after the withdrawal of regime forces toward Damascus. With this, the Southern Operations Room forces are now less than 20 km away from the southern gate of the capital, #Damascus.

48/ Local armed factions in #Quneitra announce the full liberation of the province from the regime's military and security forces.

47/ Local armed factions stormed the 9th Division of the Syrian army in the city of Al-Sanamayn, north of Daraa province. Regime forces are shelling the city with mortar rounds as fierce clashes take place inside the division.

46/ Local armed factions have declared full control over #Daraa city and burned down photos and statues of both Assad the father and the son.

45/ A circulating video shows members of local armed factions inside the al-Saraya building in Daraa al-Mahata. Local armed factions gained full control over #Daraa city, the provincial capital, following the withdrawal of regime forces

44/ The heads and officers of security apparatuses have reportedly received directives to withdraw from #Daraa city to #Damascus within the next few hours.

43/ Local armed factions have seized the police station, central prison (and released prisoners), and security headquarters in Izraa, marking the first time the armed opposition has controlled the city since 2011.