Part 1 of 3: The founding, the crash, and the decisions that made MercadoLibre the last one standing. https://t.co/jGgJd3uMUz

1/ Howard Marks just dropped 5 decades of investing wisdom in one conversation. 5 market calls in 50 years. $218 billion under management. Zero blowups. Here's what separates him from everyone else: 🧵

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25/ Full interview: https://t.co/bxaGtSV1nT Join my free newsletter for more breakdowns like this:

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23/ The bottom line: "Investing works because economies grow and companies improve profitability over time." The most important thing: Get on the gravy train, stay on it, don't tamper. That matters far more than timing entries and exits perfectly.

22/ His favorite fortune cookie: "The cautious seldom err—or write great poetry." Every person must decide: Do I want to try to write great poetry and get rich if my bets are right? Or avoid erring and be sure I'll do okay if my bets are wrong? You can't have both.

21/ On living well: Christopher Morley: "There is only one success—to be able to live your life in your own way." Munger called workaholics "maniacs." The tritest saying is also true: Nobody on their deathbed wishes they had worked more.

20/ On bureaucracy: "Can you imagine convincing a committee of 10 people to support an idiosyncratic insight?" When Lehman collapsed, Oaktree had $10B ready. Bruce Karsh invested $450M/week for 15 weeks. They couldn't have convinced a committee. "Bureaucracy and great

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19/ Charlie Munger's toolkit: He developed "mental models" and a "latticework" for thought. Pattern recognition: When XYZ happens, you don't analyze from scratch. You say, "Oh, that's one of those. I know what to do." Unharnessed brilliance only gets you so far.

18/ On credit as an alternative: The "Sea Change" is real—40 years of declining rates ended. High-yield bonds yield ~7%. For most people: use funds, ETFs, managed products. "It's very easy to get average returns. Very hard to get above-average returns."

17/ Gold since 2010: ~7.7% annually. S&P since 2010: ~12.7% annually. "It's not that gold is a disaster, but you shouldn't be distracted by gains of the last month. It's been a lackluster investment."

16/ On gold and Bitcoin: "There is no intrinsic value. Their price is what the market will bear." Oil was $147/barrel in mid-2007, then $35 in January 2008. Nothing changed about oil. How do you invest analytically without cash flow to anchor value?

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15/ Mark Twain: "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for certain that just ain't true." LTCM thought their method was infallible. Levered tiny returns into big ones. When problems occur on leverage, losses magnify. They got carried out.

14/ I break down timeless investing wisdom from people who've compounded for decades. Follow @steadycompound Free newsletter:

13/ On survival: "Never forget the 6-foot-tall person who drowned crossing the stream that was 5 feet deep on average." Surviving on average is meaningless. You must survive every day—including the worst days—to reach the finish line.

12/ Mistakes to avoid in euphoria: 1. Don't assume today's leaders will be tomorrow's 2. Don't buy laggards just because they're cheaper ("lottery ticket mentality") 3. Understand binary bets are exactly that—sink or swim What's your game plan?

11/ "Change the world" ≠ "investors make money." AI may eliminate half of entry-level jobs. But profitable for whom? If AI providers compete on price → profits competed away. If AI users compete for market share → savings go to consumers. The mechanism is unclear.

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10/ On AI today: "The strongest comparison is to the dot-com bubble of '98-2000." But there's a key difference: "With the internet, we had a clearer view of how it would change the world. I've never heard anybody tell me how AI is going to change the world."

9/ What to observe: • Are valuations high? • Is risk being ignored? • Are people acting exuberant? When everyone is carefree → run for the hills. When everyone is depressed and wants out → become aggressive. Buffett: "The less prudence others show, the more we must

8/ None of those 5 calls were predictions. They were observations. "I didn't know anything about tech stocks or the internet. I call the process 'taking the temperature'—assessing the behavior of people around me." We never know where we're going. We should know where we are.