Ukrainians need to win moderately to deserve more weapons, but they can't win too much because the weapons deliveries will slow down. They also need to start losing if they hope to get weapons urgently, but they can't lose too much because then sending weapons is pointless.

Putin played Trump like a fiddle today. Rejected Trump's ceasefire fantasy despite Trump's warm embrace, then 'agreed' to pause energy attacks only to bomb Sloviansk/Kramatorsk into blackouts hours later. Turns out 'The Art of the Deal' was ghostwritten by Putin.

Team Trump cut off Ukraine from U.S. intelligence just as Ukrainian forces began liberating territory in Donetsk. The scarier question: Is the U.S. now feeding intel to Russia instead? It wouldn’t be the first time that Ukrainian operations were sabotaged at a critical moment.

Trump is set to fail just like Obama, but Ukraine has learned the bitter lessons of 2014 and will no longer self-sacrifice to suit the agenda of deluded, self-important empty suits. 7/7

Obama's foreign policy allowed Putin to invade Ukraine without consequences and led to the full-scale invasion in 2022. By denying Ukraine weapons, Trump is repeating Obama's playbook and trying to Make Appeasement Great Again. 6/7

Like Obama, Trump believes that he can find common ground with dictators and reverse the "sins" of his predecessors. Obama in 2014 and Trump in 2025 are both pursuing a MUGA policy. To enact their agendas they both simply want to Make Ukraine Go Away. 5/7

Trump would hate the comparison, but like Obama, he has a simplistic foreign policy vision driven more by a cult of personality than by strategic sense. Like Obama, he mistakenly believes that he can reset relations with America’s enemies through the power of his persona. 4/7

Trump is trying to save face by scapegoating the victim of Russian aggression, which had received US security assurances in the 1990s. By doing so, he's voluntarily surrendering America's global influence—an unforced error with grave consequences. 3/7

Trump could never get a "deal" because neither he nor those he listens to understand Russia or Ukraine. He promised "peace" by trying to force Ukraine to capitulate, but instead he has ensured that there will be far more war for far longer. 2/7

By cutting military aid to Ukraine, Trump has cut the leash that kept Ukraine from launching far more aggressive strikes inside Russia. He gave up leverage over Russia immediately, and now he's surrendered his leverage over Ukraine as well. 1/7

Old Europe will do anything to avoid facing reality, including futilely trying to placate Trump, and talking about a farcical peacekeeping force for an illusory "peace." Zelensky is playing along because you don't defend with the "allies" you want, but the allies you have. 4/4

Team Trump has so far failed to threaten or humiliate Europe into decisive action because years of Russia's aggression have not been able to do so. Old Europe isn't interested in victory; it wants a return to the status quo no matter how much Ukrainian blood or land it costs. 3/4

Ironically, Ukraine's success in holding back Russia gives old Europe the luxury to equivocate. Western European leaders don't see the need to expend limited political capital to dramatically increase military aid to Ukraine at the expense of popular domestic programs. 2/4

Old Europe is desperate to avoid going all in to help Ukraine defeat Russia because it is expensive and the governments of countries like France and Italy don't actually believe that Russia would ever invade them. The summits and "ceasefire" plans are simply a smokescreen. 1/4

The US provides military aid based on strategic interests, despite any personal grudges or perceived "etiquette violations." If Trump cuts all aid to Ukraine, it won't be because of Zelensky's candid remarks — it will be because that was always the plan.

European career politicians grovel before Trump, swallowing humiliation in a futile bid to keep outsourcing their security to the US. Unlike them, Zelensky is forced to fight against decades of US foreign policy that, both openly and in the shadows, has shielded the aggressor.

Cutting off Ukrainians from Starlink to seize their natural resources while they are fighting for survival will further tarnish America's reputation, but it will only accelerate Ukraine's technological and military independence, leaving the US with even less leverage. 9/9

Undoubtedly, Starlink is superior to most of the available alternatives, but without it, Ukraine will continue to defend itself, just like it did when it had neither Starlink, nor any American/Western weapons at all and when its enemy was far less demoralized than it is now. 8/9

Similarly, in Kursk where Ukraine cannot use Starlink, it has been able to find alternative solutions and one can find countless videos of Ukrainian drone operators decimating Russian armor columns on Russian soil, all while the US prohibited using Western weapons there. 7/9

Ukraine had hoped to use Starlink to control its naval drones, but when it realized that it would not be given Starlink access near Crimea, it quickly setup an alternative communication system. 6/9

Unfortunately, Ukrainians realized early on that access to Starlink was not a given, and has worked on finding alternative solutions. A good example of that is Ukraine's successful attacks in the Black Sea that have forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to retreat. 5/9