Andrew Gelman et al.
@StatModeling
Followers
48,956
Following
0
Media
0
Statuses
7,809
Automatically tweets new posts from Please respond in the comment section of the blog. Old posts spool at
Joined November 2010
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#スポ男
• 54948 Tweets
La ONU
• 48196 Tweets
WIN X VELENCE
• 46821 Tweets
NuNew 3rd Single
• 36540 Tweets
ゴジラ-1.0
• 31909 Tweets
#最強スポーツ男子頂上決戦
• 22857 Tweets
ランウェイ
• 22458 Tweets
猫の恩返し
• 21117 Tweets
長嶋茂雄
• 17079 Tweets
雇用統計
• 16265 Tweets
ミスター
• 12681 Tweets
#njDONTAKU
• 12478 Tweets
Marco Reus
• 12069 Tweets
PondPhuwin Vichy Live
• 11754 Tweets
まことお兄さん
• 11408 Tweets
#فيصل_ابو_رميه
• 10184 Tweets
You need 16 times the sample size to estimate an interaction than to estimate a main effect
14
514
1K
BDA FREE (Bayesian Data Analysis now available online as pdf)
7
203
629
“You need 16 times the sample size to estimate an interaction than to estimate a main effect,” explained
8
143
596
Concerns with that Stanford study of coronavirus prevalence
22
239
580
“Dream Investigation Results: Official Report by the Minecraft Speedrunning Team”
39
37
556
Post Edited: Coronavirus age-specific fatality ratio, estimated using Stan, and (attempting) to account for underreporting of cases and the time delay to death. Now with data and code.
7
216
554
Coronavirus and Simpson’s paradox: Oldsters are more likely to be vaccinated and more likely to have severe infections, so you need to adjust for age when comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated people
10
200
482
It’s bezzle time: The Dean of Engineering at the University of Nevada gets paid $372,127 a year and wrote a paper that’s so bad, you can’t believe it.
24
100
458
Thinking fast, slow, and not at all: System 3 jumps the shark
11
73
395
Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of the Fivethirtyeight presidential election forecast
14
77
391
When doing regression (or matching, or weighting, or whatever), don’t say “control for,” say “adjust for”
5
94
369
Coursera course on causal inference from Michael Sobel at Columbia
2
69
331
Stupid-ass statisticians don’t know what a goddam confidence interval is
9
78
321
“The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Responsible Machine Learning” and “Statistical Analysis Illustrated”
2
50
299
Statistical-significance thinking is not just a bad way to publish, it’s also a bad way to think
2
83
295
John Cook: “Students are disturbed when they find out that Newtonian mechanics ‘only’ works over a couple dozen orders of magnitude. They’d really freak out if they realized how few theories work well when applied over two orders of magnitude.”
3
56
240
The authors of research papers have no obligation to share their data and code, and I have no obligation to believe anything they write.
4
55
235
At last! Incontrovertible evidence (p=0.0001) that people over 40 are older, on average, than people under 40.
6
38
228
No, its not correct to say that you can be 95% sure that the true value will be in the confidence interval
4
51
231
How do things work at top econ journals, exactly? This is one weird-ass story:
3
52
223
Regression to the mean continues to confuse people and lead to errors in published research
5
77
223
In judo, before you learn the cool moves, you first have to learn how to fall. Maybe we should be training researchers the same way: first learn how things can go wrong, and only when you get that lesson down do you learn the fancy stuff.
4
32
221
How post-hoc power calculation is like a shit sandwich
8
69
210
Here are the data and code for that study of Puerto Rico deaths
2
105
204
Our new book, Active Statistics, is now available!
2
61
210
Abandoning statistical significance is both sensible and practical
1
61
187
Bayesian statistics and machine learning: How do they differ?
1
47
182
Simple Bayesian analysis inference of coronavirus infection rate from the Stanford study in Santa Clara county
2
39
171
The causal revolution in econometrics has gone too far.
3
44
170
Here are some ways of making your study replicable. (No, it’s not preregistration or increasing the sample size!)
1
45
167
The Pfizer-Biontech Vaccine May Be A Lot More Effective Than You Think?
4
26
165
“Risk ratio, odds ratio, risk difference… Which causal measure is easier to generalize?”
3
37
165
Thank you, James Watson. Thank you, Peter Ellis. (Lancet: You should do the right thing and credit them for your retraction. Actually, do one better and invite them to write a joint editorial in your journal.)
0
34
157
That “not a real doctor” thing . . . It’s kind of silly for people to think that going to medical school for a few years will give you the skills necessary to be able to evaluate research claims in medicine or anything else.
3
23
162
4 different meanings of p-value (and how my thinking has changed)
1
47
160
Don’t kid yourself. The polls messed up—and that would be the case even we’d forecasted Biden losing Florida and only barely winning the electoral college
9
48
158
Open AI gets GPT-3 to work by hiring an army of humans to fix GPT’s bad answers.
7
32
157
Webinar: An introduction to Bayesian multilevel modeling with brms
1
44
161
Regression and Other Stories translated into Python!
0
38
158
“On the uses and abuses of regression models: a call for reform of statistical practice and teaching”: We’d appreciate your comments . . .
2
53
157
Here are some examples of real-world statistical analyses that don’t use p-values and significance testing.
0
37
157
Ted-talking data fakers who write books about lying and rule-breaking . . . what’s up with that?
3
35
157
epidemia: An R package for Bayesian epidemiological modelling
1
35
154
Ben Lambert. 2018. A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics.
1
41
149
Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem
4
30
151
The data are on a 1-5 scale, the mean is 4.61, and the standard deviation is 1.64 . . . What’s so wrong about that??
7
28
154
“A much bigger problem is the tension between the difficulty of statistics and the demand for it to be simple and readily available.”
2
33
151
Bayesians moving from defense to offense: “I really think it’s kind of irresponsible now not to use the information from all those thousands of medical trials that came before. Is that very radical?”
2
40
151
“Not statistically significant” is not the same as zero
1
30
149
Top 10 Ideas in Statistics That Have Powered the AI Revolution
2
41
145
Simulation to understand two kinds of measurement error in regression
3
27
146
All the names for hierarchical and multilevel modeling
1
69
140
Why “statistical significance” doesn’t work: An example.
0
37
137
Hey! Here’s a study where all the preregistered analyses yielded null results but it was presented in PNAS as being wholly positive.
0
24
137
An R package for multiverse analysis and counting researcher degrees of freedom
1
33
137
Bayesian methods and what they offer compared to classical econometrics
3
29
136
The worst of both worlds: A comparative analysis of errors in learning from data in psychology and machine learning
5
32
135
Awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng! On Github!
1
36
133
Bayesian inference with informative priors is not inherently “subjective”
2
25
135
Just another day at the sausage factory . . . It’s just funny how regression discontinuity analyses routinely produce these ridiculous graphs and the authors and journals don’t even seen to notice.
8
32
134
When your regression model has interactions, do you need to include all the corresponding main effects?
3
15
134
“Why We Sleep” update: some thoughts while we wait for Matthew Walker to respond to Alexey Guzey’s criticisms
1
18
127
Multilevel data collection and analysis for weight training (with R code)
0
35
127
How to read (in quantitative social science). And by implication, how to write.
0
47
129
The social sciences are useless. So why do we study them? Here’s a good reason:
7
27
123
This one’s important: Bayesian workflow for disease transmission modeling in Stan
2
40
125
Plagiarism means never having to say you’re clueless.
5
18
123
How did some of this goofy psychology research become so popular? I think it’s a form of transubstantiation.
5
27
126
The rise and fall and rise of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in international development
0
31
123
My favorite definition of statistical significance
2
46
120
Maybe it’s time to let the old ways die; or We broke R-hat so now we have to fix it.
1
32
120
You should (usually) log transform your positive data
1
43
122
No, I don’t think that this study offers good evidence that installing air filters in classrooms has surprisingly large educational benefits.
1
47
116
It’s Ariely time! They had a preregistration but they didn’t follow it.
4
22
117
The moral hazard of quantitative social science: Causal identification, statistical inference, and policy
2
43
115
When MCMC fails: The advice we’re giving is wrong. Here’s what we you should be doing instead. (Hint: it’s all about the folk theorem.)
0
26
117
Why do a within-person rather than a between-person experiment?
3
28
114
What readings should be included in a seminar on the philosophy of statistics, the replication crisis, causation,
4
45
111
The problems with p-values are not just with p-values.
4
21
110
A fun activity for your statistics class: One group of students comes up with a stochastic model for a decision process and simulates fake data from this model; another group of students takes this simulated dataset and tries to learn about the
3
17
112
What to teach in a statistics course for journalists?
1
52
110
We were gonna submit something to Nature Communications, but then we found out they were charging $6290 for publication. For that amount of money, we could afford 37% of an invitation to a conference featuring Grover Norquist, Gray Davis, and a rabbi, or
2
16
111
“Modeling Social Behavior”: Paul Smaldino’s cool new textbook on agent-based modeling
2
21
111
Online Causal Inference Seminar starts next Tues!
2
35
112
“While critique is certainly an important part of improving scientific fields, we do not want to set a precedent or encourage submission of articles that only critique the methods used by others.”
5
21
112