Spreadsheet Scouting
@SpreadScouting
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6+ Minutes of Zach Edey being a historic offensive rebounding prospect https://t.co/zdA1Q1ouGH
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board man gets paid
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My new @NBA stat and tools site is now online. @databallr It launches with several cool features, and I will be adding many more. Let's start with my favorite feature 🧵:
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Zach Edey tonight: 19 PTS 7 REB 2 STL 5 BLK 5-8 FG Joins Wemby and Embiid as the only rookies to reach those numbers over the last 10 years.
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https://t.co/vQIxOZXMpp also, read this if you haven't
https://t.co/TX8BHpL6l1 Part 2 of my thoughts on @celtics Sam Hauser, and the NCAA prospects that could proceed him as successful NBA off-ball shooters, such as: @UConnMBB Alex Karaban @MSUEaglesMBB Riley Minix @MarquetteMBB Kam Jones @IowaHoops Payton Sandfort Xoxoxo
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🧐 Andrej Stojakovic not currently in the top 60 of the major mock drafts, but is worth keeping an eye on. NBA father and tracking well as an underclass, tall wing shooter. Seems unlikely there is 60 better options than him come draft time.
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1988-2018 NBA drafts average: ≥0 VORP : 23.71 ≥1 VORP : 20.13 ≥3 VORP : 16.61 ≥6 VORP : 12.42 ≥10 VORP : 7.78 ≥15 VORP : 6.03 ≥20 VORP : 4.35 the foundation for how I tried to structure my '24 board
NBA Draft Board Tiers A typical NBA draft class produces 1.42 players with All-NBA level careers (>40 career VORP), 3.16 with All-Star level careers (>20 career VORP), 4.84 with starter level careers (>10 career VORP), and 7.53 with rotation level careers (>3 career VORP).
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great project its looking grim for '24 class so far
I have spent 40+ hours on a project that predicts the future (%'s) of an NBA players career through their first 3 years in the NBA using EPM, and this is what I found.... (and I'm not even completely done yet) https://t.co/W8ZW5srwXH
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Setting clear guidelines and parameters based on measurable data helps to clarify the intended purpose of ones draft board, while making for a more refined and assessable process in the long run.
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This line of thinking is what led me to build the foundation of my board on an available data point, I chose VORP.
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If, for example, I were to ask a group of 50 draft people to assess who the 8th best prospect in the 2017 draft is, I may get 5-10 different answers. This in my opinion causes a major issue when we then attempt to assess the accuracy of our own board-making ability retroactively.
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Now, typically there does tend to be a consensus ‘best’ player in every class. A player that sits above the rest, both statistically and in public opinion. But things can get very murky, very quickly after this point.
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I often wonder what peoples purpose is when they list their big boards, and often I am told some variation of 'to rank the best prospects’. But the term ‘best’ here is often used as a placeholder for a value that is vague, not defined and entirely subjective.
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I have spent 40+ hours on a project that predicts the future (%'s) of an NBA players career through their first 3 years in the NBA using EPM, and this is what I found.... (and I'm not even completely done yet) https://t.co/W8ZW5srwXH
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we aren't surprised
6+ Minutes of Zach Edey being a historic offensive rebounding prospect https://t.co/zdA1Q1ouGH
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One month in: Bottom 7 BPM and VORP rookies so far (min 175 mins.) (Shead, Williams, Risacher, Holland, Buzelis, Salaun, Sarr) Average rank on my board = 20.1 Average rank on Draft twitter consensus board = 14.0 Average of NBA draft pick rank = 11.4
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One month in: Top 7 BPM and VORP rookies so far (min 175 mins.) (McCain, Edey, Knecht, Sheppard, Mogbo, Clingan, Filipowski) Average rank on my board = 6.6 Average rank on Draft Twitter consensus board = 14.1 Average of NBA draft pick = 16.4
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Attempting to roughly measure the success of my board throughout the season to see how I am tracking
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