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Sofia Horta e Costa Profile
Sofia Horta e Costa

@SofiaHCBBG

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Markets for @business . Back in London after 5.5 years in Hong Kong. Alum of @LSEnews @uniofwarwick . Views / retweets mine. Not on Instagram. Lisboeta 🇵🇹

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Joined July 2012
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in greater China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
8 months
Never ceases to amuse that Lisbon’s Gucci store is adjacent to the Portuguese Communist Party’s local headquarters
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in Chinese markets this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Your weekly thread on everything that's happened in Chinese markets. What. A. Week. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in Chinese markets this week. Your weekly thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Ok are you ready, this was a big one. Your weekly thread on what's happening in Chinese markets. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in Chinese markets this week. Your weekly thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China last week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in Chinese markets this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
There are bad days in China's markets and then there are days like today. The worst stock losses since 2008 and all-time low for the offshore yuan. Foreigners sold a record $2.5b of mainland shares. A brutal rebuke of the weekend's news from Beijing.
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
China threads will return next week. Happy Year of the Rabbit!
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Foxconn chaos. Workers in iPhone City clash with riot police over promised wages, unsanitary dormitories and food shortages. Conditions were made worse by a closed-loop system adopted under Covid Zero. The plant makes ~80% of the iPhone 14 models. 3/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
This is not a rant/complaint, just trying to inform others in HK. Fined HK$5,000 for briefly removing my mask after wearing it the whole time during a ~9.5km run. It’s hot today. Was struggling to breathe. Regular exercise is crucial for diabetics like me. ‘No exceptions.’
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
China's state council has in one move just: *Pledged to keep capital markets stable *Vowed to support overseas stock listings *Said dialogue with US re ADRs is 'good' *Promised to handle risks for property developers *Clarified regulation of Big Tech will end 'soon' *BOOM
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in Chinese markets this week. Your weekly thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Good morning Hong Kong
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Record Covid. China's daily case tally hits an all-time high and Beijing reports the first deaths in more than 6 months. Early signs of a relapse back into the strictest Covid Zero measures emerge, with areas of the capital under effective lockdown. 2/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Mortgage payment showdown. China's property market - an industry that accounts for about a quarter of the world’s second-largest economy - is taking a very rapid turn for the worse. 2/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Money, companies, talent want to leave. An estimated 10,000 wealthy residents are seeking to pull $48b from China this year. Stellantis is halting production of Jeeps in China. Valuations for Bytedance are down at least 25%. HK's talent pool shrinks. 10/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Payment boycotts spread across the property market. Some suppliers refuse to make good on bank loans until real estate developers pay them. China considers a mortgage grace period for homebuyers. Henan sets up a property bailout fund. 2/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in Chinese markets this week. Your weekly thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Beyond 2023. Bloomberg Intelligence calculates the potential cost of abandoning Covid Zero: 363 million infections, 5.8 million in intensive care and almost 620,000 deaths. China's full reopening may not happen next year. 4/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
3 years
China's central bank has injected almost 1 trillion yuan into the financial system in eight days. Yep, trillion.
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Big short. Bill Ackman and Boaz Weinstein say they're short the HKD, a trade Weinstein calls a 200-to-1 smart lottery ticket. Ackman says the 39-year old peg - which leaves Hong Kong both exposed to China's economy and Fed policy - can't last. 10/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Cash strapped. The property crisis is squeezing income for China’s 31 provincial governments, who have little room for spending. They'll need to roll over debt instead, with over 40% of bonds maturing in the next five years - or about $2.1 trillion. 5/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
HSBC's stock is down 6% in Hong Kong today. The bank ~3 weeks ago sold an AT1 bond. Also known as CoCos, this is the type of Credit Suisse debt whose value was completely vaporized in the UBS takeover. Other bank AT1s are dropping by a record in Asia
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Weekly China threads will be taking a little break. 🇵🇹
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Nervous markets. Foreign outflows from Chinese government bonds hit a record in June, the fifth straight month of selling. Bets against the currency are gathering pace. Prices on junk dollar debt are on the brink of an all-time low. 4/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Chinese tech stocks are tracking a very similar path to the Nasdaq during the dotcom bubble. This means another leg lower may be coming. Chart by Morgan Stanley's strategy team.
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Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
This is quite a chart. People are now expected to live 2.1 years longer in China than in the US. Covid deaths have contributed to the majority of the 2019-2021 decline in life expectancy for Americans. H/t to @hancocktom @JDMayger
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
11 months
It’s a wrap, Hong Kong. Thank you @Simoninthesand for the parting gift of bloopers (and for your patience week in, week out!)
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
What about banks? They'd forfeit $4.6 billion of interest income if China gives homebuyers a temporary mortgage-payment holiday, Citi says. Separately, authorities say they'll repay more victims of China's biggest-ever bank scam. 3/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
The bad-loan ratio for China's property sector has climbed to 29.1%, Citi analysts estimate
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Markets sink on contagion fears. Chinese bank stocks suffer their worst week since 2018. Some investment-grade property bonds trade at all-time lows. Iron ore futures drop almost 8% in a single day. 3/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
11 months
So it's now June, my final month living and working in this beautiful city. I first moved to Hong Kong in early 2017 for what was meant to be 3 months. Then a few wonderful people helped make the move permanent and the rest is history. A bit of a different thread today... 1/6
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Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
GDP miss. China's economy expanded just 0.4% in the second quarter, vs an estimated 1.4%. Import growth slowed to 1%, reflecting weak domestic demand. Exports to the rest of the world remain an important buffer, surging 18% in June. 4/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
China is non-so-profitable. Wall Street giants including BlackRock and JPM are finding that expanding their China businesses may not bring in the big bucks after all. 9/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
3 years
This is contagion. China developers in October: -Fantasia: Oct. 4 default. Two directors resign -Evergrande: Oct. 11 coupon not received -Xinyuan: will pay just 5% of Oct. 15 note -Sinic: Won't pay principal/interest due Oct. 18 -Modern Land: asks for 3-month extension Yields:
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Alibaba lost more than half a TRILLION dollars in market value since Oct. 2020. It's now the 25th largest stock in the world, vs 6th back then. ADRs closed at the lowest since June 2017. This is $BABA vs Nasdaq, normalized:
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Macau's Covid Zero casino crash. In 2019 gambling revenue was six times that of Las Vegas. This year Vegas is ahead. Casinos account for 80% of Macau's government income and 1/3 of employment. Casinos are set to reopen this weekend, will anyone come? 9/10
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Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Banks to the rescue. Recently enlisted to stabilize the property market, China’s mega lenders are starting to deliver. ICBC leads the pack by providing some 655b yuan in credit lines to 12 developers - Evergrande and Sunac excluded. 6/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Weekly threads are taking a little break 🇿🇦
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
4 years
Last night in #HongKong . Incredible views, incredible city
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Ant's punishment. Chinese authorities are set to fine Jack Ma's fintech firm more than $1 billion, says Reuters. Ant's IPO was set to be the world's largest ever before Beijing cancelled it at the last minute almost exactly two years ago. 9/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Record budget deficit. China's local governments ramp up spending to boost growth, just as tax-relief plans and falling land sales squeeze their finances. The result is a 600% surge in the overall budget shortfall vs last year. 5/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Speaking of corporate behavior: HSBC. The bank has formed a Communist Party committee at its investment banking venture in China, the FT reports. The committees serve as unions and sometimes as a way to install party members in upper management. 7/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread 1/10 Investors panic. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks have their worst reaction to any Communist Party congress since records began in 1994.
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Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in Chinese markets this week. A thread. 1/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
China just said it will hold a Covid press briefing at 3pm Beijing time today and markets are getting very excited.
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Fuel supplies. Chinese bureaucrats studying the energy outlook are proposing to end a ban on Australian coal - imposed in late 2020 after China-Australia hostilities escalated. China will want to avoid a repeat of last year's energy shortages. 8/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
Evergrande's overhaul. The developer that started it all plans to present a restructuring proposal as soon as December. One group of creditors recently requested that Evergrande's chairman inject $2 billion of his own money. 7/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
Omicron breaks through Hong Kong's strict border controls. The city bans arrivals from countries including the US, UK, Australia and shuts down bars, bans evening dining. 4/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
More money. The central bank will ramp up monetary stimulus soon. Liquidity is far from tight though, and freeing up more cash won't solve China's credit demand-side problem. Borrowing in a Covid Zero economy isn't attractive - no matter how cheaply. 8/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
9 months
China's property slump looks far worse than official data suggest. Since the peak in 2021, home prices are down at least 15% in prime areas of Shanghai and Shenzhen, and about 25% near Alibaba's HQ in Hangzhou.
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
1 year
A friend last night introduced me with ‘meet Sofia she has American energy’ and 12 hours later I’m still processing
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
A flexible growth target. Premier Li Keqiang says “China won’t roll out massive stimulus, issue an excessive amount of money or overdraw the future for an overly high growth target.” Below is what to watch on the Chinese economy this year. 5/10
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@SofiaHCBBG
Sofia Horta e Costa
2 years
All of this happened in China this week. A thread. 1/10
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