1500 words from @USverdrup and me on 12 lessons for Brexit from Norway's 23 years outside EU but in Single Market

The Trump effect on EU.1. Far right nationalist get a big boost; now present self as part of wave.2. Parties that are against supporting Ukraine will be much more assertive .3. Orban can use to on EU foreign and security policy unconstrained by eg. Meloni

Interviewed in Nettavisen re: von der Leyen and Weber telling Orban off in much harder words that usual: a sign of how isolated Fidesz (and Patriots for Europe) now is due to combo of democ backsliding and Putin-friendly stance. And abuse of CM presidency.

One EU member state blocks bid form another on classified grounds of national security.- rail as critical infrastructure.- Hungarian firms + govt Russia links probably main issue.- might be tested in court.=> more and more focus on geopolitical risk in EU.

RT @AleksSzczerbiak: My Financial Times piece on next year's Polish presidential election:.

Lots more public speculation on Nord Stream attack in Germany. Now ex-BND heads says the operation could only have been carried out with logistical support from Poland.

Reporting on WSJ article, FAZ emphasises continued open questions, trails to Russians was well, and cites CDU’s Roderich Kiesewetter on possibility of false flag operation (since pipeline was already out of action)

Long WSJ report says rogue Ukr attack behind NS explosion. Cites Ukr officials, claims president called it off after US warning not to go ahead, but c-in-c carried on anyway. But big question remains why: risks/costs much greater than benefits….

And the reports from Sweden’s Expressen More details on suspects + their company .- diving qualifications.- identified by driver of hired van, travel Ukr to Germany.- diving company’s social media profile (pro-Ukr).- but nothing points to Ukr state role.

Here is the FT report, which includes confirmation from PL prosecutor’s office.

A bit more detail in FAZ Two more suspects, both Ukrainian.Still focus on the Yacht Andromeda as base for operation.Assessment based partly on info from another foreign intelligence service.

German arrest warrant for Ukrainian in PL over NS-explosion. Not much more clarity on motive. Theory 1 - Ukr, to hurt RU. Not likely, risk too high and it removed key card in negotiations.Theory 2 - RU hardline actors who wanted to prevent negotiations .

Péter Szijjártó: Croatia is not a reliable transit country for crude oil.Much better to rely on Russian oil… . Hungary (and Slovakia) has temporary exemption from import ban on Russian oil to transition away from it, but has instead increased imports

Years-of-lead terrorism still divides Italy. At anniversaries of far right bombs Italicus train 4/8/1974 + Bologna station 2/8/1980 Fratelli d’Italia politicians keep referring to fascist perpetrators“according to the courts” as if the real truth is other

RT @SvD: Ytterhögern i Storbritannien har eggats på av falska uppgifter om gärningspersonen efter måndagens knivdåd. Desinformationen onlin….

Is Viktor Orbán Ungarns risking x-border travel by letting Russians into Schengen?, asks DiePresse, pointing at an open door to Russian spies. A reminder that the border to Austria is still subject to passport checks.

Der Standard asks: what does Viktor Orbán want with a private university in Vienna (Central European University’s home since it was expelled for Hungary)? Close ties between Fidesz and FPÖ of course, but also ÖVP

Good by ⁦@liliebayer⁩ on Hungary’s sinister sovereignty protection office, which main task seems to be to cast doubt on what remains of free media and NGOs in the country

Orban, Kickl and Babis try to form new far right alliance .- if they find enough partners=> from 2 to 3 far right groups in EP.- but ideologically heterogeneous: ANO much less authoritarian than Fidesz (and to some extent FPÖ) less pro-Russian as well

In Soumen Kuvalehti on the far right in Austria + geopolitics.- FPÖ did well in EP el, but not as well as expected.- Will probably do worse in national el.- Scandal-ridden FPÖ will struggle to find allies.- even if in gov, FPÖ can’t push pro-Putin policies

4/4 EP far right likely remain fragmented .- two groups divided, Meloni/PiS vs LePen/Salvini/FPÖ; AfD out of ID; Fidesz still alone.- no change before AT and FR elections likely .- pro/anti Putin still big divide line.- ditto hard anti autocrats (Fidesz, PiS, AfD) vs softer rest?.