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Joined May 2015
Why the slide? Chinese demand softening hard - Top consumer (>50% global use) pulling back post-Lunar New Year. Spot volumes slump, Yangshan premiums hit multi-year lows, refined demand shows negative/flat YoY growth in key sectors like construction/manufacturing. Inventories
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Copper: Distribution complete? π Dr. Copper - the legendary "doctor" of the global economy - is flashing warning signs. Copper's heavy use in construction, manufacturing, wiring, power grids, EVs, and infrastructure makes its price a leading indicator of economic health: rising
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6/7 December 2025 may have been #Powell's last cut this cycle. Two pauses. Inflation revised higher. Energy shock still unfolding. No end in sight. Markets, borrowing costs, mortgages - everything stays under pressure. Higher for longer. Situation developing. Stay alert. π
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6/8 Let's be clear about what "uncertain" really means right now: β Iran war escalating daily β Ras Laffan β 20% of global LNG β on fire β Brent above $110 β $DXY stretching 100 β dollar strengthening fast β Energy shock feeding directly into inflation. How can the Fed
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5/8 On the Middle East, the Fed had just four words: "The implications are uncertain." That's central bank language for: we have no idea what's coming next. And neither does anyone else. This is a developing situation - and it changes everything.
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4/8 And for the first time in 2.5 years, one anonymous policymaker penciled in a rate HIKE in their 2027 outlook. The dot plot doesn't lie - but it doesn't name names either. The Fed isn't just pausing. It's turning hawkish.
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3/8 The numbers don't lie: π PCE inflation revised UP to 2.7% for 2026 π Only 1 rate cut projected for all of 2026 π Only 1 more in 2027 The Fed is deeply divided on 2026: β 7 members see NO cuts this year β 7 members see 1 cut β 5 members see 2+ cuts
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2/8 The vote: 11-1. The other 11? Unmoved. With oil surging, Ras Laffan on fire and inflation creeping back up - the Fed isn't flinching. Higher for longer is back on the table.
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FOMC: Rate hike in 2027? Waitβ¦ what? No cuts. No relief. And a whole lot of uncertainty. Thatβs for now. Read about unimaginable π§΅
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9/9 What to watch now? π₯ Extent of damage at Ras Laffan π Brent pushing toward $110-115 if escalation continues π VIX - if it breaks 30, risk-off mode kicks in hard π Any retaliatory strikes on Saudi Aramco infrastructure This is the tail risk nobody wanted. It's here.
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8/9 Remember - all of this is happening with $DXY strengthening. Strong dollar + surging oil & gas prices = an inflation multiplier for the entire world. Every country importing energy in USD just got hit twice.
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6/9 π VIX up 10% since yesterday - fear is back. When the world's largest LNG complex is on fire, and Iran is calling Gulf energy sites "legitimate targets," volatility doesn't ask questions. It spikes.
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4/9 The fallout is spreading fast. Abu Dhabi shut down its Habshan gas facilities after debris from an intercepted strike caused damage. We're no longer talking about isolated incidents - this is a coordinated, escalating campaign targeting the Gulf's entire energy backbone.
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3/9 This didn't happen in isolation. Hours before, Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, one of the largest in the world. Iran responded by declaring energy sites across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE as "legitimate targets." The Gulf is now an active energy warzone. β οΈ
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2/9 Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar accounts for ~20% of global LNG supply. A single Iranian missile got through after four others were intercepted - causing extensive damage to the complex.
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π₯LATEST: Ras Laffan: Worldβs largest LNG plant on fire This isn't a drill. One of the most critical energy facilities on the planet was just hit. Here's what happened and why it changes everything. π§΅
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