This isn’t all of it as folks point out, it cannot be given the size, but combine it with lower than normal abandonment and other error it is a contributor

It is also with noting that in Jan you also resolve abandonment which given the number of corn acres might be a tad on the light side, result in this combination is an increase in harvested for grain acres in Jan

So the big June acres miss gets distributed ‘proportionately’ to silage, grain and abandonment…normally not a big deal… but results in an implied silage acres that doesn’t seem realistic this year starting in Aug.

It is important to note that silage (seemingly uncorrelated) is 6-7 million acres while abandonment (1-2 million) so the uncorrelated portion is much larger. So NASS sets the harvested to planted ratio in June and keeps it until Jan.

The difference between corn planted and that harvested for grain has two components, silage and abandonment. There is a correlation between total corn acres and abandonment which makes sense.

Here is a graph of silage & grain acres 2000-2024. Note there is no clear correlation if they increased together it would be a line which slopes up left to right. The one year in red where they do is 2012, but for a specific reason, drought.

Is this well understood or would a graph help……

The harvested corn acre change in Jan is directly related to the June acreage miss and a simplifying assumption that doesn’t matter most years (isn’t large enough) this year it adds significantly to the June miss.

🇺🇸Expanding on the U.S. corn acreage surprise from the 2025 season - 3.6M more planted acres in the end than suggested by the June survey, which was taken when corn was ~95% planted. It wasn't just a couple of states or even one region that explains the difference, either.

Harvested estimate based on June acreage = 86.8, Aug harvested area = 88.2, today = 91.3

We are 250 mb ABOVE the August Surprise on area….

This……

First time in about 4.5 years I haven’t come to work by bicycle, today is my first day back @FAPRI_MU

Microsoft Edge just interrupted my Excel spreadsheet on soybean exports to tell me King Charles did something…..didn’t we fight a war over this?

That’s it. Will definitely miss your insights this year.

For clarification I didn’t think they could get THIS high, but here we are.

This is the SAME issue as the China-> South Korea sale earlier in the year

By people doing their job I presume you mean the grain shippers who are REQUIRED to report….

Somewhere I have a presentation on this from the time, I’ll post it if there is interest

They are different things and every o e of them I’ve seen is the later and thus has upward bias as to the final actual yield.