S-Curve Capital
@S_curvecap
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TMT L/S PM. Entry points matter.
New York, NY
Joined December 2020
Bc I prefer being serious & ppl here clearly like arguing abt process -- my honest take again is you HAVE TO figure out your style & calibrate process accordingly, otherwise it's all pointless 2 questions very impt to my own style/process: 1. What might more investors come to
Death, taxes & Fintwit debating the value of primary sources/modeling
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FYI this is not the same as saying don’t have a process lol, you absolutely need to find what works for you But think the constant search for some “silver bullet” / esoteric insight someone else will share that will print PnL is misguided Most ideas that work sound pretty
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Maybe I'm just old now but frankly I couldn't care less abt dignifying investment frameworks, philosophy, thematic pontifications etc -- just make $ Find ideas that will work, full stop & all the better if you keep your head down while doing it I guess but to each his own
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Only thing the Sundheim podcast really showed me was the amount of arrogance that needs to be smacked out of ppl on this app.
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If I have some duration, why wouldn’t I buy SNPS here? Haven’t formally covered EDA for a few yrs so I’m sure I’m missing something. Defer to the experts.
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Jeez how crowded was NFLX into print, I’ve been a hater here publicly recently but feels like time to get long post this qtr which was fine Not super exciting & won’t make $ next wk on it but more a long vs short here into 26 imo
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Just remember the TL was pindrop silent on GOOGL before the stock ripped, bulls were basically in hiding — not to mention co DID ship product that consumers adopted for narrative to start chging durably False parallels being drawn to setup on various other names rn => tears
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What’s the best bear argument on TEAM here at the current price? Get that this might not be THE quarter given decel/optics of fiscal H1 yy comps etc but more interested in 6-12mos out bear case. Thx.
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Lol “public markets are problematic at this point” - we’re never getting quality IPOs again, are we
Tomorrow on Cheeky Pint: Dan Sundheim, an investing savant who never goes on podcasts, with @danielgross and me.
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Is OpenAI just trying to jam every angle possible to get more normie adoption? [rhetorical]
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Btw Happy Diwali to everyone who celebrates! 🪔 Still remember when I was an IBD analyst 20yrs ago, I had one Indian VP who decided we’d walk out & take the day off. Staffers were livid, said they’d “never even heard of this holiday, are you making it up?” VP said if everyone
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Officially back in the saddle today & never been more ready DM if you want to start chatting ideas regularly, shld be ramped in a few wks - still doing mostly internet & software to start but will be adding semis in ~N6M
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No current view on ADBE but you hear this same argument about literally every large cap sw biz — ORCL MSFT CRM TEAM (never heard a single compliment abt Jira in my life lol), I cld go on It’s just not a thesis for public sw cos - if your org/boss wants you to use it & it
@blondesnmoney Adobe is going to be fucked. Never met a single person who uses them who likes them. That can work for a while but eventually it comes around and bites them in the ass
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Maybe I’m just being difficult (or exposing myself as a maxi) but I didn’t find the Karpathy interview as if it should be a huge -ve needle mover on AI sentiment
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One less discussed pt from the interview (below) was ChatGPT risk for OTAs -- maybe now that @altcap talked abt it ppl will debate more Reality could simply be: travel = large/impt enough category for ads where symbiotic existence makes most sense but still not sure why that
When does agent risk get more debated/priced in for OTAs? Not clear it is w/ mkt caps where they are. Might ultimately be less impacted (big ticket, consumer friction, discovery, long tail inventory) but think agents COULD weaken value prop on some of those factors?
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Been away for a bit & miss my dog terribly. We really don’t deserve these creatures but we’re incredibly lucky to have them in our lives.
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Software analysts trying to pitch the catch-up trade.
Mitch McConnell stumbled and lost his balance on the floor when a reporter asked him a question. He was helped to his feet and quickly escorted away after appearing unsteady.
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Related point re: sentiment - same ppl who were saying “META should trade at 30x” in springnow nonstop pumping GOOGL + saw that “no price targets” guy owns it now too 🤦🏻♂️ Most likely still fine for Q3 but wouldn’t be surprised to see it consolidate a bit post, getting tired NT
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Sorry to say but too many ppl are still posting they’re long AMZN I remember I said here they’d miss last print & got personally attacked lol That said, tough to see stock not work next yr so I’m leaning more towards owning it now
Don’t really see much of a reason to own this now tbh Maybe I shld finally update my model tho & then decide
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