A significant “housing handoff” is around the corner. Over the coming decades, tens of millions of homes will shift from older to younger generations, reshaping housing inventory, prices, and affordability. Read our latest blog to learn more:

With a December rate cut still uncertain, mortgage rates are holding near one-year lows—down from ~7% in January. Short-term volatility is possible, but today’s range offers a fairly dependable floor for buyers.

September’s jobs report—the last before the Fed’s December meeting—sends a mixed signal: solid job growth shows resilience, but rising unemployment will catch policymakers’ eyes. Hawks cite sticky inflation; doves point to slack for support.

After a data delay, employers ended summer on a strong note, adding +119K jobs in September and reversing months of sluggish hiring. But unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, the highest since Oct 2021—something that will grab the Federal Reserve's attention.

Despite elevated levels of distress in CRE, big banks aren't panicking over CRE. That doesn't mean the trouble is over, though. Last week, I joined Marketplace to discuss how loan maturities, rising rates, and shifting ownership could actually set up the next phase of the CRE

Powell: "No risk-free path for policy." Paraphrase: "Downside risks to employment have increased…and we are taking a more neutral policy response…we continue to face two-sided risks." "A further reduction in December is not a foregone conclusion." #FOMC #FederalReserve

The Fed just cut its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and pivoted on the balance sheet. Starting December 1st, Treasury runoff will stop (those maturities will be rolled). MBS runoff will continue, with those proceeds being reinvested into Treasuries. In plain

Fed lowers rates again to 3.75%–4%, but faces a dueling mandate: inflation remains elevated while the labor market has softened. Powell says a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion,” setting up policy uncertainty that could stretch into 2026.

Pending home sales were flat in Sept., with signings hitting their 2nd-strongest pace of 2025. Lower rates are drawing buyers back in—especially in the South. Still, “life happens” events will continue driving demand, while broader affordability and inventory challenges persist.

With the vacancies report delayed, the long view matters. Our projections show steady household growth through 2060. Construction is the crucial swing factor—without it, vacancies likely stay below historical norms. Check out our upcoming blog post dives deeper into these trends!

To wrap on housing: today's CPI also brings some more potential relief for homebuyers. The 10Y Treasury fell below 4%, likely pulling mortgage rates lower. The 30Y fixed averages 6.2%, the lowest since last Sept—a dip under 6.1% would mark the best affordability since Sept. '22.

Shelter disinflation kept easing pressure on the services side. Shelter—about a third of CPI by weight—rose 0.2% in September, with owners’ equivalent rent rising just 0.1%—the smallest gain since Jan 2021. Falling asking rents should keep shelter inflation trending lower.

Signs of broad tariff-driven price hikes didn’t show in September. Apparel, furnishings, and new vehicles rose, but other import-heavy categories—like medical care, pet food, toys, and A/V products—saw outright declines.

Core goods inflation kept climbing in September, though at a slower pace, hitting its highest annual rate since May 2023. Core services inflation cooled to the lowest since December 2021, helping offset some of the increase on the goods side.

Consumer prices rose 3.0% over the past year—the fastest pace since January. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy and is closely watched by the Fed, cooled slightly but remains above 2%, reinforcing some Fed officials’ caution on aggressive cuts.

Inflation picked up in September, but likely not enough to knock the Fed off course for an October rate cut to shore up the labor market. The December outlook is less clear, with officials split on how fast to ease and whether to prioritize jobs or prices. More details below.

CPI for September will be released Oct. 24—just in time for the Fed’s Oct. 28–29 meeting. With no jobs report, policymakers are leaning on proxies like ADP and state-level claims. A “hawkish cut” remains likely as labor softens, even if inflation firms slightly.

Join me tomorrow for a fast, 30-minute lightning session hosted by October Research, LLC (sponsored by SoftPro), where I'll explore the economic forces shaping housing and the broader real estate market as we head into 2026. https://t.co/WmyQihsi3Z

Want to see what this means for specific Midwestern markets — and how we expect the reset to play out in Part 3? Read the full post here: https://t.co/6UrPYEXt9Y

I spoke with @SchwabNetwork about recent house price trends and the overall state of the new and existing home markets. Check out the segment linked below! https://t.co/NnuCdU7299