Sparring with Reality
@SWR_Betting
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👤 Luke Lampe | 💰 UFC Betting Advice | 👊 Contributor @EstablishTheRun | 🎯 Record: |
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Pinned Tweet
🚨
#UFCVegas88
Recap 🚨
✅ Chandler (+125)
✅ Moises (-365)
✅ Tybura (+115)
✅ Filho-Osbourne U2.5 (-180)
✅ GM3-Barberena U2.5 (-150)
Clean sweep +8.51u 🧹💰
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Me looking at Anderson Silva +200 wondering if it's a trap
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571
8K
"Nate, what's your strategy to beat Khamzat?"
Nate:
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6K
I repost this every Tuivasa fight week as it's still one of the best videos out there 😂
#UFCParis
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724
5K
#UFC276
Press Conference Takeaways
1. Strickland stole the show
2. O'Malley looked ridiculous as always
3. Holloway needs work on the trash talk
4. Cannonier was super awkward
5. Pereira could be a cartel hitman
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131
2K
Gonna go out on a limb and say this dude hasn't gotten laid in a second lol
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2K
"Hey guys, bad news. The UFC wants me apart of the fucking press conference" 😂
I can't wait.
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Opens Twitter and sees BJ Penn calling for a fight with Jake Paul
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670
90%+ of people within the betting community "think" they know how to analyze fights. Here's a great video from
@laura_sanko
to give you a good framework.
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Lets go! This venue is actually sick for fights. Never gonna get tickets for under $200 bucks with this kind of view at any other place.
#UFCLasVegas
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397
2-0 Colby
Colby Covington pressed charges against Jorge Masvidal, told police his $90,000 Rolex was damaged in alleged assault (
@DamonMartin
)
422
217
5K
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Well with no UFC this weekend, anyone know what's going on with this guy?
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245
Who was parlaying Erick Gonzalez is the real question lmao
Erick Gonzalez is dealing with MMA fans who lost their money on him
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888
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Everyone: "You can't bet Jessica Eye this week".
Me:
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216
"Bobby Green steps up to take on Islam Makhachev"
MMA Twitter:
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190
Me after having a cent of my money on Kris Moutinho last week 💀🤮
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9
188
Me at
#UFC279
this weekend cheering for Nate but knowing he's going to get walked like a dog
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***Incoming Text Message***
Dana: "Masvidals out, were booking Chimaev, you in?"
Leon:
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If Michael Chiesa submits Rafael Dos Anjos tonight, I'll give 1 person $50 who:
- Follows me
- Likes & RTs this tweet
**Tweet must get 50 likes and RTs
#MMA
#UFCRaleigh
#GiveawayAlert
#UFC
11
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Went back and watched the Turcios fight from last night. What the hell was that? lol
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Is it just me or has anyone noticed that the UFC matchmaking has been crazy good recently. Putting together a lot of fun fights.
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Status 24 hours later after losing money on Gina Mazany
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Have a new inductee to join Liana Jojua & Tabatha Ricci on the Simping With Reality team. Welcome Danielle Kelly.
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History made, 1st fight reported 1st via Only Fans 🤣
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The scenes if Leavitt subs him in the UK and does the splits - won't make it out alive 🤣
Another banger added to
#UFCLondon
!
@theufcbaddy
returns to the O2 against Jordan Leavitt on July 23.
Paddy Pimblett brought the party last time out 🔥
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4K
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Why do fighters get belt promotions in fights with no grappling? Honest question.
#UFCVegas49
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You wonder why people illegally stream your product...charging $75 for a PPV in 2022 is asinine.
PPV prices for UFC events on ESPN+ will be $74.99 this year.
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1K
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113
Honestly, prob the best betting strategy for this card was to just not bet anything 😂
#UFCVegas58
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Mama Sparring knows me too well. Autographed Khabib Nurmagomedov glove. The glove collection is building!
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Never been the "conspiracy" type of guy at all. But Paddy is Dana's cash cow who he had on his podcast 2 weeks ago where their both sucking each other off burying Helwani. Then you get this decision where anyone with a brain would score that fight for Gordon. Just sayin.
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🚨
#UFC268
Giveaway 🚨
If all 3 Trevor Wittman fighters win tonight (Usman, Gaethje, Namajunas), I'll give (3) people $50 who:
👉 Follows me
👉 Likes & RTs
BOL!
#MMATwitter
#GamblingTwitter
#Giveaway
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Chook's gonna be like +500 by split and we bringing out the 🔨🔨🔨
🚨BREAKING: The UFC is targeting Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot for
#UFCParis
on September 3rd.
The UFC has already sent out a contract offer to Fiorot after the Chookagian vs. Ribas fight last night.
[per
@BoxeMag_com
]
#UFCParis
#UFC
#MMA
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If this tweet gets 20+ Likes & RTs - (1) person will get access to my bets and content for the Rozenstruik vs Sakai card! 🔨👍
6 plays up already with 13u on the line!
#MMATwitter
#GamblingTwitter
#bettingtips
#bettingpicks
8
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Update:
- Still hasn't unblocked me
- Still doesn't have a 3rd party tracked record
- Doesn't tweet out his losses
- Trolls fake fight announcements
- Buys his followers
- Wears turtlenecks in 2023
Great individual.
Yo
@tajikbay
, if you're going to run your mouth, at least have the stones to unblock me.
#TakeYourSkirtOff
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Just cut him. The guy's just a hinderance to the company at this point - he's boring, never fights and is unprofessional.
Zubaira Tukhugov has missed weight (157.5) at lightweight (155 lbs) after coming up from 145 lbs.
#UFC284
how????
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2K
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7 things that can help you be profitable betting MMA in 2023 🧵
This isn't "gospel" per say as everyone operates differently but the aspects referenced are going to be solely based on my personal experience and opinion as a long term profitable bettor.
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@LasVegasLocally
There's no way that place is lasting. I've heard nothing but bad things since it opened.
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MMA Twitter on Mike Perry: "He should be fired".
Most likely Dana:
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Triples Quinlan up on strikes and finishes the guy with a broken arm....Barlow gonna be a problem.
Danny Barlow broke his arm in the first round of his fight with Josh Quinlan
He shared the x-ray on his Instagram
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"I think O'Malley could steal a round or two in a 3 round fight."
- James Krause
"I would put Petr Yan -300, -350. That's about right"
- Also James Krause
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Signed on the line this weekend. Making the move out to Las Vegas next month! No more cold Wisconsin winters for ya boi!
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🚨
#UFC266
Giveaway 🚨
If Nick Diaz KOs Robbie Lawlor, I'll give (1) person $100 who:
👉 Follows me
👉 Likes & RTs
*Tweet must get 50 likes & RTs
**Closes at 9 CST
#MMATwitter
#GamblingTwitter
#Giveaway
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🚨
#UFC256
Giveaway 🚨
If the Hooper/Barrett fight ends in KO, I'll send someone $50 who:
- Likes & RTs this tweet
- Follows me
Happy violence!
0
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What's your hot take for
#UFCVegas52
?
For me, Clay Guida get's 10+ minutes of top time and looks like -300 favorite 😯
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I had no money on that but that's up there with one of the worst decisions i've ever seen. Dustin won that fight 30-27.
#UFCVegas63
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Former UFC fighter Daniel Omielanczuk just got heel hooked as a -650 favorite in KSW 👀
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Listened to Krause's pod.
"Romanov's faced no adversity" Wrong
"Costa line is wide but I want nothing to do with it" What?
"Costa/Vettori wasn't competitive" Costa won 2 rounds
At least watch the fights if you're going to do a podcast bro lol
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T-minus 2 weeks untill Cortney Casey loses her arm 🐺
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🚨
#UFC288
Free Bet 🚨
Kron Gracie (+155)
Kron not a great striker, not a great wrestler, not writing scientific papers anytime soon but has elite jitz. Jourdain fights in a way that will give Kron opportunities to ground and gain dominant positions in this fight. Sign me up.
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Happy to announce i'll be making my
@UFCFightPass
debut this week on Episode
#3
of The Gambler's Perspective w/
@FightOdds
&
@Greek_Gambler
!
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76
When you have late McKee props after he gets 10-8'd in the 1st but the fight starts round 2.
#UFCAtlanticCity
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Over/Under 2 weeks before Walmart Loureda starts up the OnlyFans
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🚨
#UFCVegas8
Betting Recap 🚨
2u Neil Magny (-185) ✅
1u Whitmire/Viana FDGTD (+135) ✅
1.5u Rakic/Smith O1.5 (-130) ✅
1u Cifers/Martin U2.5 (+230) ✅
1u Alexa Grasso DEC (-160) ✅
Profit 6.51u 💰
Clean sweep! 9 straight winning UFC events! 🔥🔥🔥
#TheSparringSide
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What's your hot take for
#UFC274
?
For me, we see Randy Brown mix in some TDs and submit Khaos Williams 😯
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#UFC277
Press Conference Takeaways
1. Pavlovich on every Eastern European flintstone vitamin known to man
2. Juliana Pena was lookin fine Halle Berry
3. Nunes said the word retirement...
4. Pantoja may have killed somebody 30 minutes before the presser
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2
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#UFC273
Press Conference Takeaways:
1. Burns looked bothered
2. Dern is too nice to talk shit
3. Aljo coming out in a helmet was hilarious
4. Pissed there was no faceoffs
5
2
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Betting Tip
If you wouldn't lay a price straight, then don't parlay it. Because if you do, essentially what you're saying is that you're taking 1 (if not 2) -EV legs (based on your own opinion) AND enhancing general risk at the same time. It's not logical. Price is everything.
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People who tweet at or DM fighters after losing bets have serious emotional problems.
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0
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🚨 The 50/50 Giveaway is back! 🚨
If Omari Ahkmedov KOs Chris Weidman and Aleksei Olienik submits Derrick Lewis, I'll give $50 to someone who:
- Follows me
- Likes & RTs
**Tweet must get 50 likes & RTs
#Giveaway
#MMATwitter
#UFCVegas6
7
52
61
Oh please give me Pichel at plus money
Vinc Pichel will fight Mark O.Madsen at
#UFC271
on February 12th. (per
@MayerMeni
)
#UFC
#MMA
#UFCESPN
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661
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1
68
Godinez averages roughly 10 take down attempts per 15 minutes. She shot a whopping 2 tonight. Can't predict this stuff sometimes.
#UFCSanDiego
6
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66
What's your "hot take" for
#UFCVegas58
?
For me, Gore stuffs TDs and KOs Brundage. His KO line can be had for +250 which correlates to a 28.57% implied probability.
35
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UFC: Chase Sherman will be starting his 3rd official stint at 3-8 in the promotion.
#MMATwitter
:
1
1
66
Ian Garry is a fraud, I'm sorry. People's expectations of him along with what he thinks about himself are flaud. He will take an L shortly.
#UFC273
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65
What's your "hot take" for
#UFCVegas57
?
For me, Morozov blows the doors off Paiva who's been substantially hurt in both of his fights now at 135lbs. Morozov's KO prop can be had for +350
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66